@jcmleng , I'm glad you brought my attention to this one, it definitely looks interesting. Seems to be sitting about halfway between its 52 week low and 52 week high, yet still below where it was 5 years ago, so I think there is decent upside. CMC lists it as undervalued too, so that's not bad. Not having the skills to evaluate this sort of company I turned to Perplexity to give me some insights and below is some of what it turned up:

Revenue and earnings are headed in the right direction.

As you mentioned there seems to be positive movement in contract wins, and counter drone purchasing is definitely in its infancy.

Worldwide spending on counter-drone systems in 2025 is estimated to be between $3.1 billion and $4.5 billion USD, with most sources coalescing around $4.5 billion USD as a consensus market size for the year.​

Market Highlights

• Estimated Global Market (2025): $4.48 billion USD​
• Growth Rate: Projected CAGR of 24–27% through 2030–2035, with rapid expansion driven by defense modernization, rising drone threats, and major investments by governments.​
• Key Segments: Military/defense remains the largest category for anti-drone expenditure, followed by airport/critical infrastructure and law enforcement.​
• Regional Distribution: The Americas lead in total spending, followed by Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Middle East markets.

EOS percentage would appear on the above figures to be about 2-3% of the estimated counter-drone market. If they maintained that percentage then their revenue could increase 24-27% per year.

If break even is $250million of revenue, and that was hit in 2026, and assuming 25% growth from there in keeping with the projected CAGR, so say $60 million positive in 2027. The current market cap at today's share price is $992 million, so already about 16.5x the potential positive earnings. The sector average is around 17.6x earnings.

If it continued to increase positive earnings by 25% per year (it hasn't improved its negative margins by that % yet) and maintained the multiple then maybe $6.40 - $6.50 would be pretty conservative for 2028. It moved up over 7.5% just today, so another 25% doesn't seem unlikely at all.

Of course I have no idea what the competition is like and whether EOS is likely to maintain or lose market share. I assume a lot will depend on how well their technology performs on the battlefield and other areas. Definitely looks better at $5.14 than $10.42, the 99 cent 52 week low would have been awesome, so congrats to anyone that got in down there.

Anyway, just my rambling as I conduct my very amateur evaluation.