Forum Topics CAT CAT Say goodbye

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

Johnson from Forager nailed the exit

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/moving-on-from-catapult

Mark Seymour's song is an appropriate title for this too!


Rocket6
Added 2 months ago

Not a Catapult holder, and I agree that they are well and truly overvalued, but worth stressing the last part of that article:

'There are plenty of scenarios where Catapult shareholders do well from here and I would love to see this Aussie business become a massive global success. Catapult is our best ever example of optimising the profit from a successful investment. But at Forager we excel at finding the unloved and underappreciated, and at these prices it is time for us to focus on finding the next one.'

Their thesis has played out, and their game is contrarian bets -- that is no longer consistent with this opportunity. That isn't to say Catapult doesn't continue to grow for the next 5 years and the current valuation looks like a piss take.

Fair play to Steve and co -- one of the good guys in an industry with a lot of schmucks. Really pleased for them.

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edgescape
Added 2 months ago

@Strawman only pointing out that Steve sold at the right time just as CAT replaced gold miner Gold Road resources in the ASX 200 which happened some time back.

It's very interesting Livewire article to say the least

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Strawman
Added 2 months ago

They certainly timed it well @edgescape

I sometimes wonder if I'm learning the right lesson, or just not applying it well.

Being too fastidious with valuation has usually been a mistake with companies growing strongly, with a long runway and a market leading position.

But that doesn't mean things can't get over valued either!

And then you have (potentially) the distortion of artificial liquidity (aka money printing) which could make the usual mean reversions less reliable..

Ugh, investing really is hard :)

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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

I wouldn't stress about it - there was a sea of red across all of my portfolios today - in fact the only companies whose share prices did NOT go backwards today was BCI (flat) and DBI (up 4c, or just under +1%) - because they're both viewed as defensive and safe companies that own significant infrastructure that will provide reliable income for decades into the future. DBI is the safer one, because it's fully established, BCI is not yet in full operation so there's still development and execution risk, but the asset types are similar and I did find it interesting that there were buyers prepared to step in and support both stocks today when so much was getting sold down.

The market was clearly focused on negatives today and was happy to totally ignore any positives. TNE reported well and announced a special dividend as well and fell -$6.080 (-17.2%) and Catapult (CAT) also had a decent report yet dropped -11.72%. Even positive results were punished.

One of my goldies that I hold in my SMSF (not here), Southern Cross Gold (SX2) announced new drilling results (assays) which included 9.2 m @ 34.6 g/t AuEq (gold equivalent, being 32.2 g/tonne gold, and 1.0% antimony). One drill core (SDDSC184A) delivered the two highest individual gold grades ever recorded at their Golden Dyke prospect - 986 g/t Au and 416 g/t Au and their share price finished the day down -4.56% as the whole sector got sold off. Smashed is probably a better description.

It seems that no good news went unpunished today.

It's just one day and tomorrow might be totally different, hopefully different in a good way. There's a bit of up by the stairs and down by the ultra-high-speed elevator going on it seems.

BTW good to see SJ and the Forager team getting a few big wins of late - it seems that everything's been coming up roses for them since they decided to close their LIC (was FOR) and just have open-ended funds instead. Value investing is hard, and it has certainly been hard for Forager much of the time, but their patience with a few names like RUL and CAT has certainly paid off.

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Bear77
Added 2 months ago

Just reading through MP's EOD ("MarcusToday") email and there was at least one company that did rally on their results today - James Hardie Industries (JHX) who beat expectations clearly and finished the day up +9.87%. And the lithium sector was up.

However, overall - not good. The newsletter said: "A weak start to the day accelerated to a loss of 167 points (-1.9%) on the ASX 200 as RBA minutes and US futures took us down. Six-month low for the index. The big three sectors (Banks, Tech and Miners) were hit hard with the iron ore miners smacked. BHP off 3.7% on UK court ruling and RIO off 2.7% with FMG falling 2.0%. Energy stocks also slipped, WDS down 1.9% with STO off 0.6% and uranium stocks under pressure. Gold miners too sold off as bullion slipped, NST down 5.6% and EVN down 5.2% with lithium the only sector that saw any green. PLS up 3.3% and LTR up 2.1%. Banks were also sold down hard, WBC fell 3.0% and CBA down 1.7% with the Big Bank Basket falling to $267.54 (-1.8%)..."

The rollercoaster continues.

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Strawman
Added 2 months ago

Thanks all, and great write-up @jcmleng

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NewbieHK
Added 2 months ago

With the way the market is heading, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an article in the future about how they back buying CAT.

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