Hazer really seems to be at a fascinating stage of development. Taking Glenn at face value, the hard R&D and validation work is done, they’ve secured a major licensing partner, and they have a huge addressable market with a decent pipeline

According to Glenn, the NPV of just a few contracts suggests the company is heavily undervalued. He reckons $80-100m per contract over 20 years (at a 10% discount rate), with each expected to generate about $10m per plant per year. Since it’s a licensing model, it should be highly scalable with fat margins. At least in theory.

Crucially, the tech seems supported by hard economics, not just environmental feel goods. The strategic/geopolitical angle is also interesting given most graphite currently comes from China.

The market is clearly skeptical.. and no wonder given how poorly 'climate-tech' has performed recently. But that, I suppose, is the (potential) opportunity. As Glenn said, a decent commercial contract or two could trigger a serious re-rate, so the next 12 months will be interesting.

Of course, the risks are real: contracts might not materialize, they could burn through funding too fast, or simply get outcompeted (or ignored) by customers. Like any new tech, there are always unforeseen gremlins (which Hazer has seen before). Plus, there’s counterparty risk with KBR, and the lag between signing a deal and actually seeing the cash will likely be material.

But it’s certainly interesting. If the tech is as good as advertised, and if they land some big contracts, this really could be a multi-billion dollar company down the track.

Anyway, it's on a watch-list for me at this stage.

Here's the transcript: Hazer Transcript.pdf

And some AI generated notes from the meeting:

The Core Tech & Process

• Methane Pyrolysis: Hazer uses a proprietary technology to split natural gas (methane) into two products: clean hydrogen and solid graphite.
• The Secret Sauce: The process uses an iron ore catalyst in a "fluidized bed reactor." This is 100-year-old proven industrial equipment, meaning it scales easily compared to newer, unproven methods.
• Plug and Play: The tech is designed to "plug in" to existing industrial plants (refineries, steel mills) to replace their current dirty hydrogen production units without disrupting the rest of the facility.

The Economics (The "Moat")

• Cost Parity: Hazer claims they can produce clean hydrogen at the same cost as traditional dirty methods (Steam Methane Reforming).
• US Cost: ~$1/kg (vs. ~$8/kg for green electrolysis).
• Australia Cost: ~$1.50–1.60/kg (vs. >$15/kg for green electrolysis).
• Energy Advantage: The process is extremely energy-efficient, requiring only 7–8 kWh to produce a kilo of hydrogen (green hydrogen via electrolysis needs ~55 kWh).
• Subsidy Independent: Because they have cost parity, the model works economically without needing government handouts or carbon credits, though those would be pure upside.

The Graphite Bonus

• Dual Revenue: For every ton of hydrogen produced, the process creates roughly 3.5 tons of graphite.
• Geopolitical Hedge: Over 85% of the world's graphite currently comes from China. Hazer offers a way for Western nations to produce their own graphite (critical for EVs and batteries), mitigating sovereign supply risk.

Business Model & Strategy

• Licensing Model: Hazer is "CAPEX light." They don't intend to build and own huge plants; they license the tech to operators.
• KBR Partnership: They have a strategic alliance with engineering giant KBR. KBR acts as their global sales force and engineering partner (exclusive for the ammonia and methanol sectors), allowing Hazer to scale without adding massive headcount.
• Revenue Potential: Management targets ~$10 million per year in license fees per plant.
• Valuation: Glenn estimates the NPV (Net Present Value) of a single commercial project at $80–100 million. With a market cap of ~$130 million and a pipeline of ~50 projects, he views the company as significantly undervalued.

Commercial Status

• Readiness: The tech is at TRL 7/8 (Technology Readiness Level), meaning the R&D is effectively done and it is in the "Commercial Demonstration" phase.
• Validation: ExxonMobil recently entered the methane pyrolysis space, which Glenn sees as a massive validation that this specific technology route (rather than just green hydrogen) is the future.
• Key Projects: They are progressing projects in Canada, Japan (Chubu Electric), and the UK (Energy Pathways). The UK project recently moved to a paid feasibility study.

Risks & Competitors

• Competitors: The main competitor is Monolith (US), a private company valued at ~$1–2 billion. Monolith uses plasma tech (higher energy) and produces carbon black (tires) rather than graphite (batteries).
• Cash: The company has ~$20 million in liquidity, which is expected to bridge them through upcoming licensing milestones over the next year.
• Next 12 Months: The focus is purely on converting the pipeline into binding commercial licenses ("The Year of Commercialization").