Pinned straw:
I've bought back in to DTL. I got lucky with the timing.
My thoughts were that the market would react badly to the profit when DTL was on a high P/E and there was the threat of the not being renewed to the Whole of Govt panel. I was also looking to harvest some cash. It has dropped much more than I thought.
The panel risk has been resolved. DTL are, so far, the only appointee to the Whole of Govt panel. It's still called a panel and DTL announcement is that they have been appointed to the panel - its just that the panel only has one member.
Now DTL is much more attractively priced. A forward P/E of around 20 and a fully franked yield of 4% (5.6% incl Fr Cr).
That's a really interesting Bear Case @Scott and one I don't doubt at all. My problem, as a significant holder IRL and also as a part of my SM portfolio is when do I think I've taken Data#3 as far as I can. E.g. my IRL holdings still include shares purchased at IPO in 1997!!
For 11 months I have set a target of $10 to hit the eject button and final look elsewhere for the reliability and returns I have gained from $DTL. IRL they have kindly given me a return of 48% p.a. (including dividends of ~11%) since 1997, which I just viewed in Sharesight and even though I knew they had been very kind to me for many years, I'm still surprised by the quantum.
Therein lies my dilemma, as I have ridden with DTL through some very rough times (down to $6.40 dec 2024, which was another buy signal for me) as well as some good highs, only ever taking some part profits and then reinvesting again once the market marked them down again. On top of that they have been a great source of franked dividends for my SMSF that's in retirement (no tax) mode for a very long-time.
As you stated, they have almost always been an extremely well-run local (Qld) company that has been the market leader in Desktop solutions for a stack of State and Federal Govt departments, but I think that quasi-moat is starting to show cracks in relation to this Govt revenue and I'm not super convinced that their AI aspirations are going to give them the type of exclusivity with Govt customers that they have been used to for so long.
I'll stick with them for the near term, but I'm sure I'll find it very hard to look away from a sale if the share price tops $10. It has been a fun ride though and a great advertisement for letting the well-run companies just do their thing for as long as you can.
Thanks for your insight into the upcoming licenses renewals as well!!