@Solvetheriddle thanks for your summary on the call. I attended a funeral this morning so have been missing all the share market excitement…NOT!

Yes a 3% lift in Aussie sales for January is not startling which is most likely cause for the reaction, but I was just pleased to see LFL sales not going backwards in January with the interest rate hikes looming and the pressure on household budgets.

Did you get any insight into FY26 NPAT? Do you think consensus of $81 million is still achievable? It means the group only needs to achieve another $35 NPAT in 2H. I need to check with historical half year weightings to see what is normal.

To be honest I thought the NCK share price was getting quite expensive at over $25 and I was starting to lighten off. I probably should have been more aggressive in hind sight, but this is what happens if you are riding the momentum.

If the business does achieve $81 million FY26 NPAT, my top end valuation would be around $20 per share. I would prefer to be buying it at $16 where I estimate ROI of 10%. It might get there if this bearish market continues.

@Rick ok i dont look at consensus but run my own numbers and my number is $79m which needs a bigger 2H run rate, so is an ask. NCK did 24% in the FH and needs 31% in the 2H, so ill probably nudge down my numbers. ill go through that exercise soon.

as for trying to "beat" consensus, 25 years ago i said to my Head Of Eq all we need to do is predict NPAT and compare it to what people think, and he looked at me and said, but how do you do that consistently without inside info,,,and he was right. ive seen many try and do it, without much consistent success, but its what all the HF try to do, i dont play that game. so i do my own numbers and 2h does looks a bit high. I am trying to give good value for the Uk in my valuation as success there is part of my thesis and the commentary was very encouraging.

AS did also mention a skewing towards Nov instead of Jan with the Nov sales becoming more important, effectively pulling forward demand. he aslo mentoined the IR increase, but too early to call on any impact, but that probably gave some the willies.

NCK does get clobbered from time to time, so be it

Thanks @Solvetheriddle and @Bear77 and @Rick - I hold IRL. I thought the result was pretty good (nice growth and LFL sales), and I'm really encouraged by the progress in the UK and losses are manageable. 20% drop in a day isn't fun, but underneath this is one of the best managed businesses in Australia. If it wasn't already a big allocation for me, I would add more (might anyway).

Thanks @Solvetheriddle. I do look at consensus to understand market reactions like the 22% share price drop today.

In my quick scan of the 1H report this morning I made an error. The statutory group NPAT was $41 million, not $46.6million. This was the ANZ NPAT without the UK loss.

If we work on last year’s 1H/2H statutory NPAT skew it was $30 million/$27.7 million.

Assuming the skew is similar in FY26, you might anticipate 2H26 stat NPAT of approx $37.9 million, say $38 million. If this is the case, FY26 stat NPAT would come in at $78 million, just a little under your estimate of $79 million.

So, I think this explains the big drop today. 1H has missed consensus and it seems unlikely at this point that the group will achieve FY26 Stat NPAT of $81 million based on last year’s skew. I think there is a lot riding on what happens in the UK in 2H. This could ramp up quickly when store closures for upgrades are finished.

This also means that I will probably revise my valuation down a little for now.

@Rick be aware there were abnormals in last year's half so the underlying is $33m, which i am using. so the skew is larger.

Interesting week for Nick Scali. As a former owner, I found the change in the business with the UK expansion, a mediocre Board and a very elevated multiple all too hard and sold out last year.

There is no doubt Anthony Scali is a smart cookie and they have a very good retail model. They have a better than average chance of getting the UK to work as a result of that. But it's no certainty and still an open question today, so that elevates the risk for me.

Despite this weeks share price drop it's still on 23 times earnings, which is WAY above it's long term average and requires the UK to head north at a decent clip over the next few years to do well as an owner in my view. The few great Aussie retailers we have in NCK and JBH are worth owning when the multiples are in the low teens but definitely not in the mid 20's or above, based on long histories. These are mature, steady businesses...not start ups hitting inflection points.

I'm interested if it falls below $14 over the course of 2026 all else being equal but otherwise there are better bets elsewhere right now for me.

It sure is ugly today, WTC could be below $40 soon who would have thought

NCK is actually one that I reckon should bounce next week, probably not back up to $25, but today looked like a downside overreaction consistent with negative market sentiment around... pretty much everything.

Disc: Not held, have held in the past, great management, love the UK expansion, early days, losses expected at this point, next year should be a much better result for the UK segment. Australia is a fairly mature market for NCK - so any LFL sales growth is positive. I didn't see any reason in today's results for a -20% sell down of NCK. Just not a good day to be reporting really. Let's see what they do next week SP-wise.

Yes I think that’s a good take on it @Bear77. I also checked my shares for those trading in the green today. Here’s my list….SPZ, PNV. Oh, that’s it! One of the worst days I can remember for my IRL portfolios!