Forum Topics MSV MSV H1 Presentation Notes (19/2/26

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Management presented a stonkingly good result for H1 with no song and dance, the emphasis being that this is business as usual. So the soft FY25 results are the exception, which they said at the time (weather and large ramp up costs) and are proving true.

Some points on the result:

  • Special div 4c FF is a ~13% yield on pre announced price of 43.5c and they remain focused on their 4 pillars approach to capital management. As such will view choices between dividends, buy backs, acquisitions and debt reduction as they come up rather than pre-committing. Noting that they are always looking for acquisitions (and rejecting) but nothing currently on the table.
  • They see demand for rigs is increasing particularly for gold, some green shoots for coal and with 66 engaged out of 88 in fleet – opportunity to improve financials. Rig count used and idel evenly split between surface and underground & expect more to be in operation by mid year than currently.
  • Loop valued at 24m based on Sumitomo’s investment, have capacity to service this as it grows. 
  • Result includes 1.4m impairment included but is recoverable. Depreciation and interest lowering helped and PcP improvement due to problems in prior period with this period representing normalised but still not optimised trading results.
  • Working capital down 20% due to improved receivables
  • H2 to date has been better than usual due to weather and rig use, but they remain disciplined on pricing which is shown by the available rig count.

Kicking myself I didn’t up my last top up order from 30c to 35c in January and would welcome a price pull back on the now 50c+ price. I will have to do more detailed review to justify purchasing more at the current price but if I didn’t hold I would probably buy a monitoring position.

At +20% the market cap is ~120m. It has generated 8m NPAT in the half, ie PE run rate of 7.5 and generated $11.8m in FCF (5.1 x annualised FCF) if you take out the favourable working capital movements, 17.0m if you leave them in.

It is clearly offering good value even after the parabolic price movement YTD.

PS: thanks for the nod on Mitchell Services @Noddy74 a year or so ago.

Disc: I own RL

Noddy74
Added a month ago

Stonking is a good word for it, Tom. It's amazing how quickly the numbers can turn (in both directions) in a highly cyclical business like this.

I thought there would be a divi given the wads of cash they generated in the last few quarters and the mention of the franking credit balance last month, but 4 cents fully franked? That wasn't on my bingo card.

A few observations:

  • Revenue up marginally vs pcp but costs down all over the P&L. Very unusual for a capital intensive services business, and highlights the ramp up costs they were incurring 12 months ago. The CFO confirmed as such when I asked him directly and also noted some of the ramp down costs they were also incurring back then from places like Grosvenor, due to underground fire.
  • Re-iterated they look to get 30% gross margin, 10% opex costs and 20% EBITDA margin, which they achieved this half.
  • As @Tom73 noted they are very confident the $1.4m impairment they took will be recovered from insurance this half, giving them a 2H free kick.
  • Trading conditions currently 'better than usual', including benign weather.
  • Also re-iterated some competitors will price more aggressively than them but they're happy to let those go at the expense of rig utilisation.
  • Overall sum up would be gold good, coal bad.


I might update my valuation but I suspect it won't have improved too much as fundamentally I don't think too much has changed. I'd say it's important not to get too carried away. Lack of major deployment costs and good weather are the main drivers of the result and won't always be the case. With one third of the fleet not being utilised they have the capacity to grow without major capex spend but I'll be more than happy if they just maintain utilisation where it is now and keep delivering these results.

[Held here and IRL - didn't fill my boots though]

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