Pinned valuation:
If we assume H2 is the same as H1 and a PE of 15, we get yesterdays share price ($0.55), but as H2 is usually stronger than H1, if we assume H2 NPAT is a 40% improvement on H1 then we get $0.66.
Either way, I think LBL is tracking nicely at this stage.
Given the language used and repeated mention of H2 being strong- they clearly already have decent insight into this almost 2 months in- i think NPAT will be higher in H2 and hopefully just above that $3million mark
Is anyone brave enough to take a stab at 2H NPAT? I’ll throw it out there to see what others are thinking. I think it will be their biggest half yet at $3 million.
Playing the numbers out, assuming Opex in H2 is just up 2% on H1 and H2 revenue is the same ratio to H1 as in FY25 plus 2m for tech then I get NPAT of $6.5m for the full year (ie @Wini's number). It’s $5.7m if you take out the $2m revenue for tech. I left margin at H1 FY26 rate.
So I guess $5.5-6.5m depending on the Komatsu tech deal and what margin it’s at.
I still have to interrogate this estimate on Opex assumptions in particular, but I don’t see it moving a lot.
Disc: I own RL