04-March-2026: 5pm: I know this is much more psychology than logic, but I tend to act differently as a holder than as a prospective buyer. As a holder, as I am with a tiny PME position here on SM, I'm happy to ride out the volatility and entertain the possibility of averaging down or topping up at lower prices (a.k.a. trying to catch the falling knife) even when the company haven't proven to be back in a share price uptrend yet. However as someone who would like to hold a decent position in real life and currently does not hold any (with real money), I want to see them back in an uptrend before I allocate that capital rather than buy a chunk and watch the market value of that position decline further. Yeah, I know, shouldn't make any difference, but for some reason it does. It's a personal bias and I suspect one that some others here may also share. They say Spock would have made a much better investor than Captain Kirk, and it's obvious why: The absence of emotion is of great benefit with successful investing. Not always easy to achieve though.

So my Income Stream account should be up and running soon and I will have the cash from my liquidated SMSF to invest within that income stream account, and I reckon PME would be a nice company to have in there. So with that in mind, I am following PME's daily moves with interest, not so much because the daily moves matter in and of themselves, but more because I'm trying to see if a new trend is forming.

I'm hopeless at technical analysis but to my very average and untrained eyes, it seems that PME is now trading sideways more than down, and I've heard that referred to as consolidation, which often precedes a solid move up, or down. Yes, the old: it looks like they're ready to rise, or fall. Covers all bases really but doesn't provide any useful information.

But would like some input from any of the various TA-savvy members out there - especially you @jcmleng - I find your charts easy to understand with those different coloured horizontal price range zones that you include in them.

This what I have noticed today:

Or am I just seeing what I want to see?

Teetering before a violent lurch either way. I have purchased on SM but not IRL.

The question for me is, if the earnings growth slows and the PE reduces to 30, what does the earnings growth need to be to justify the current SP.

Still haven't sat down and answered the question for myself.

I was looking to see a bit more "consolidation" as well

Discl: Not Held

@Bear77 , technical PURGATORY is the best way to describe PME. Absolutely sideways consolidation in a pretty tight range between ~$130.00 and $110.00 with the $111.75 range being tested a few times and is still holding thus far. Not hard to see the indecisive position that the market is in, so the chart action makes perfect sense.

What is interesting as the days go by is that a base SEEMS to be forming at these levels. Weak holders are selling and higher conviction bods are buying in - the longer the price goes sideways, the stronger the base, goes the theory.

Went back to history of past dips. I drew boxes around the past dips to get a sense of what a "typical consolidation period" might look like and there is a range of periods. The current consolidation period is sort of mid-way between the long and short consolidation periods, so in the absence of any news, this consolidation could run for some days/weeks to come still, if history is any indicator.

Hope this makes sense!

Thanks @jcmleng much appreciated! So the longer they trade sideways the stronger the base is, as long as they go up from it at some point... I'll keep an eye on them and see if I can pick when they've ascended from technical purgatory.

@jcmleng @Bear77 I previously said that I would not buy my next parcel of PME shares until I witnessed a simple uptrend characterised by a higher low and higher high. Well today is the day from what I can see so although volume is not great, I've dipped my toe in again.

Pro Medicus has signed two five-year contract renewals in the US with a combined minimum value of $40 million through its subsidiary Visage Imaging. Announcement below.

As disclosed I purchased some shares on Friday based on an uptrend forming but leading into todays open I thought that I probably made a mistake so this announcement came at an opportune time as the stock is currently up modestly but sticking out like a sore thumb in a sea of red.

I'm cautiously optimistic that the bottom was formed about 2 weeks ago when Anthony Hall made substantial purchases but how long the conflict in the ME goes for is obviously the wild card.

@OxyBBear while arguably not price sensitive (if $PME didn't achieve these renewals THAT would be price sensitive!), the good news in the announcement is that the sale to Medstar includes the recently added Visage 7 Cardiology product.

According to my BA, this is only the 3rd commercial sales of the cardiology product. While it is early days, this supports the strategy that adding pathology and cardiology to the radiology offering will qualify $PME for more tenders for the full stack, comprehensive product by the large buyers - the Integrated Delivery Networks/Large Health Systems. These are the sources of the big contracts that can move the dial.

My point is, the more individual instances of sales of cardiology (and pathology) that $PME can make quickly, the better its chances of success in the big tenders.

Good point @mikebrisy I also note that there is potential upside exceeding the minimum contract value as both agreements are transaction based and were negotiated at a higher fee per transaction.

The other bonus (that I am not putting any emphasis on at this stage) is PME's investment in 4DX which, who knows could end up being quite substantial value and is sort of a backdoor entry into 4DX for those looking for a lower risk entry.

@OxyBBear Yes I agree, specifically as distribution was part of the agreement in the $10m debt/equity deal that $PME did with $4DX.

Despite what I wrote in my posts late last year on $4DX, I have fully exited that position, preferring instead to hold it through $PME, even though it is only likely in the fullness of time to own 3-5% of $4DX equity.

I currently consider $4DX to be overvalued (on a risked basis), and am curious to see the timing and level at which revenue comes through. There's every chance that it will be volatile, and of course that volatility will result in below the line adjustments (up and down) as a non-operating item every six months in $PME's P&L.

I'm not saying I won't invest in $4DX again, but I think the market has gotten ahead of itself, without any numbers to back it up. As far as I recall, the only hard contract values that $4DX has released is the $10m minimum value of the Phillips deal! They've been very careful to not disclose meaningful value driver information.

By my reckoning $4DX could be worth anything from $0.5bn to $3bn. But with a current market cap of $2.4bn, the market is assuming a lot of success.

That success in the high case is going require integration of $4DX into the radiology workflow. And this is where $PME holds the key. (And the other full stack offerings).

How much per scan will $PME (and other full stack providers) be able to extract from $4DX for integration? That is the (multi-)billion dollar question.