@Raseekingalpha ive written extensively about CSL over the last couple of years. so will keep it brief. The outcome we have here is dramatically falling returns on marginal investment dollars, with extensive debt used to keep ROE and eps up. so a few charts. Below are eps revisions for the last 3 years. so what analysts are usually wrong, but to me, this shows consistently failed expectations. needs to turn.

Below is one of my favourite charts that uses capital employed, ie ND as well. Notice the trend. now approaching the cost of capital. needs to improve. note CSL was net cash + in 2022 now has US$9b net debt. Pharma usually should have very little debt.

Next point, pharma is tricky, Novo Nordisk is the leader in the blockbuster drug of the decade GLP-1 (Ozempic), huge market, etc etc, trades at a PE of 10X. similar eps downgrades to CSL , not converting goals.

i dont really care what various fund managers do, or MS revisions. its simply a case of CSL needing to improve returns on capital, which have been disappointing for quite a while. The market gave them the benefit of the doubt for quite a while (and so did i) since, well they are CSL, but time is up.

first move, they need to hold guidance; secondly, consistently show better returns on capital.

The chart below is shamelessly stolen from a Hotcopper post. But pretty much sums up my opinion.

5 years ago CSL was priced at a high multiple and the market was expecting rapid growth. It delivered consistent growth every year, but not as high as expectations.

Now CSL is priced at a considerably cheaper multiple. Cheaper even than many stodgy, slow-growing companies like the supermarkets. Very little growth is priced in

It's a very simple investment case IMO