Forum Topics PPH PPH Pushpay Holdings Ltd General Discussion
Strawman
2 years ago

I have sold my PushPay shares (in real life and the order has been placed on Strawman for today).

Selling today at about $1.15 represents about a 5% discount on what I'd get if I waited for the takeover to proceed ($1.21 at current FX rates) -- so why sell now?

Well, the time value of money is a real thing. This money is tied up until the sale finally goes through, and this wont be until the second quarter of calendar 2023. I suspect the actual cash transfer will take even longer. I don't want to wait (potentially) 6 months or so for a measly 5%, especially as the deal could potentially fall over, or the NZD/AUD exchange could move against me.

(Yes, a higher offer could also materialise, although that seems unlikely, and the exchange rate could move in my favour -- but this would be pure speculation).

The idea will be to deploy the funds in something else that has better risk/return potential.

All told, it's been an ok investment. Not great, not terrible.

I first bought in 2017, and in real life managed a 11% CAGR over the period. Here on Strawman it'll be closer to 9% CAGR (both in money weighted terms to account for the various buys/sells). It would have been better if I sold in the heady days of 2020, but we're all geniuses with the benefit of hindsight! :)

I agree with other members that the company had some solid long term potential, and despite a few missteps from management I would have been happy to hold for another 5 years.

C'est La Vie

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Summer12
2 years ago

Appreciate your outlook and honesty, especially when it comes to your families wealth.

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Summer12
2 years ago

I really hope it's NOT a takeover.

I feel this has a quite a runway moving forward.

Hold IRL & SM

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Timocracy
2 years ago

There was news a few weeks ago that there was interest so odds don't appear to be in our/your favour!

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Summer12
2 years ago

Although I know your right @tbra97 it would be Ideal if the offer is not good enough to get the boards and shareholders approval.

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Timocracy
2 years ago

@Summer12 and then the irony comes when the board fights it, says “no, that undervalues the company” then the SP falls 25% in a day. Rational market my a**e

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AUROPAL
2 years ago

I assume the trading halt is due to an aquisition announcement, either them being aquiried (IMO most likely) or them making an aquisition.

It is too early for their Half Year report and that shouldn't require a trading halt anyway.

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AUROPAL
2 years ago

Well as expected, trading halt was to announce their takeover by private equity.

This is the third one of my holdings to be acquired by private equity this year after Nearmap and ELMO earlier.

I'll be up about 50% but again feel like private equity is getting a bargin.

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Chagsy
2 years ago

I feel your pain!

as a holder of all 3 who sold out over the last 6-12 months I can only offer you schadenfreude. You did better than me.

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reddogaustin
2 years ago

$1.34 NZD which the google, says is $1.21 AUD.

Dang nab it! Another PE stealing my lunch money. First NEA, now PPH.

I'll have to check sharesight, but i'm not sure i'm positive cgt on this one... sigh.

I guess I better put strawman to use, and find another idea to put the money....

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mikebrisy
2 years ago

I sold a few months ago (RL and SM) at $1.145. I concluded (or sensed, rather than analysis) the next big thing (Catholic segment) was going to be a slow burn. Most recent results indicate that might be right. Happy with my decision. Sure, a few cents more would have been good. I think when we are investing in these early stage firms they need strong continuing growth beyond becoming cash generative, and $PPH has definitely slowed down. So happy to have the capital to roll the dice again.

(I first entered $WTC, $ALU and $XRO around the same time in RL, and still holding as these pass the test…. Baby Giants! even if $PPH and $NEA didn’t make it.)


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AUROPAL
2 years ago

@mikebrisy I'm not sure I'd call $WTC, $ALU or $XRO babies, maybe teenagers?

$ALU and $XRO certainly well proven but still plenty of runway to grow. $WTC I'm not as sure about how proven it is. I still have lingering doubts after all the short reports.

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mikebrisy
2 years ago

@AUROPAL I was perhaps unclear. They are former BabyGiants. $ALU and $WTC are proven global market leaders, and they generate strong free cash flow with growing ROE. Definitely teenagers and they will mature for sure.

The historical short reports on $WTC were noise. They didn’t understand the M&A strategy which was very clear … buy small country or capability beach heads and fold them into the platform. The acquired revenues were irrelevant. It was a capability vs time play. Richard White knows what he is doing. But my arguments are irrelevant. The numbers speak for themselves. Teenagers? Fair enough, there is more to go, and a lot of success is already baked into the SP. But I don’t mind having held for so long.

$XRO is now an open question. They are purposefully reinvesting for growth, but their space is more competitive and everyone is in the cloud now. Progress is sluggish in USA and UK is a macro basket case which will slow them down. ANZ is mature. Where to from here? I first bought at $17 sold at $140 and bought back in at $110. Will this teenager ever grow up? Not sure. And my conviction is lower than it has been.

My point was, they all made it past puberty, whereas $PPH and $NEA haven’t yet.

Disc. I Hold ALU, WTC, XRO in RL and have sold PPH and NEA (RL and SM). I don’t hold proven firms on SM.


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Summer12
2 years ago

Wait till private equity have extracted every bit of value, then re-float it...

Bet the price will be ridiculous too.

Hold Sm & IRL

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AUROPAL
2 years ago

@mikebrisy good explanation and fair points all.

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AUROPAL
2 years ago

I'll be disappointed if this takeover offers goes through.

Private capital firms are using the current market conditions to go bargain hunting.

Anything they offer will most likely be severely undervaluing the company.

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Strawman
2 years ago

I think that's probably right @AUROPAL

That being said, if it falls over shares could drop a lot lower. Not that that would necessarily be bad for patient investors.

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