More catching the dip with panic selling before cooler heads prevail. It's worth more than $1.

I don't follow NEA however I used to assume that the market almost always over-reacted to negative news - and often to positive news, but mostly to negative news, but I have found out the hard way that sometimes the market is right, or close to it. I guess now there are people with similar experience to me that will just sell out once they feel their investment thesis is busted, and they won't anchor on price - they just sell. But I sometimes still engage in some thesis creep - where I adjust the thesis to suit the company's lack of progress or bad news. I try not to, but when a company is a high conviction idea and you've had high hopes for it, there are often emotions involved that perhaps cloud my judgement somewhat. Then again, there is a different argument in that my thesis might be busted but now the company is so cheap that I can articulate a new thesis that makes sense based on the new market price being so low, even though the company's near to medium term outlook maybe significantly worse now than it was previously, that suggests that there is likely significant upside from these new low levels.

But those decisions are always best made with as much emotion removed from the process as possible. Marcus Padley suggested last year that there was evidence to support the argument that most companies that fell on their results tended to be trading at even lower levels three months later (and that companies whose SPs rose on results tended to have higher share prices three months later), which suggests that the market doesn't ALWAYS overreact. Sometimes they just dump a company because it isn't what they once thought it was, and they are right.

I must admit that while I do sometimes still "load up" when a company I hold has a massive SP drop on bad news that I consider to be as a result of temporary issues rather than structural issues, I now do that less than I used to. Probably because I've been wrong about that too many times in the past.

Good points Bear.

I too used to assume that the market always overreacted to bad news, and to some extent that is true, however as you say, quite often the market is actually correct.

Even if it isn't fully correct, it can certainly mean a depressed share price for a long time due to negative sentiment.

@mikebrisy

My assessment agrees with your 3x hypothesis. I would rate them in order of likelihood as 2, 1, 3.

As you have said, focusing on the 'macro conditions' is an incredibility weak argument for any business who know what their market is, and what their product does. Convincing a crowd to take a certain action (sell) due to short term problems is a charlatan tactic, encouraging an emotional reaction, vs a rational decision.

Maybe I just don't like the cut of the jib of these board members, and that bias makes me think they are selfish, and this action keeps their reputation arguably in-tact for their next job.

Hypothesis 1 is also possible. Scale is king, and TB would have the war-chest to make it happen.

As for anyone who sold early, including myself, Ned Kelly springs to mind, such is life. I don't think we made the wrong decision selling early. As @Nnyck777 makes the good point above, the delta between $2.0x and $2.10 is negligible on a retail holders holding.

Ditto. I didn't answer the phone, but the guy left a message with the same encouraging information. I didn't bother to call back as I sold out a few months ago. I've deleted the message now, so I can't check who it was from --- @tbra97 do you remember who it was? It would be good to steer clear of whoever is doing their IR.

@AbelianGrape very good thought there. Ah, I don't recall hearing a name of the rep company however a search for that number (02 8016 6975) hints that they have also done this recently for a few companies that are with Computershare.