Forum Topics SGI SGI Stealth General Discussion
Tom73
Added a month ago

Half Year Results out on 25th of February, notice today...

New share price high today (52c now) with massive buy pressure has some solid expectations around those results. Just hope Mike and the team deliver.

I take it they will not be doing a pre-half year results presentation like last year and causing a price sensitive information issues again!

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

Agree @Tom73 relative "Buy" / "Sell" volumes are crazy.

Just announcing that they are going to announce their results seems to have reminded a bunch of buyers that their trades haven't gone through, so presumably they've upped their price limits wanting to get in ahead of the result.

Welcome to the world of dividend-paying micro-caps!

I hope the result is half-decent. It will be interesting to see how the acquired business is performing, as well as any word on progress on the captive $60m revenue opportunity.

Disc: Held in RL and SM


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Strawman
Added a month ago

Boom! You love to see it @Tom73

Shares are still rather illiquid, so today's gain could easily be reversed. But enjoying the pop for now!

We'll see what they say when they report, but based on the midpoint of the guidance (or more correctly "goal") issued at the AGM, they are on a forward PE of 16.8x.

For a company that's expecting revenue and profit to grow at ~40% & 155% (respectively) this year, it hardly seems demanding.

Keen to see more evidence of margin expansion/operating leverage.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@Tom73 @Strawman, today $SGI closed for the first time above my central case valuation ... but then there's that beautiful asymmtery!

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Tom73
Added a month ago

Well it just hit 4x for my RL portfolio and is still around 25% under what I have as my base line valuation on assumptions well under where Mike has been spooking...

It's starting to look very weighty in the portfolio but I haven't got any plans to trim currently - all pending on the H1 results and any new information of course!

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conrad
Added 3 months ago

EGP Capital submitted a ‘Notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder’ form on 18/11/24.

The form states that they’ve sold around 1.6Mill SGI shares from 3/9/24 to 18/11/24. They originally owned around 7.2Mill shares so I’m guessing they’ve dipped under the 4.99% requirement?

It’s probably a complete non-event, but I do read this guys monthly newsletter from time to time and he was very upbeat about SGI previously, so I was surprised to see him offload a large chunk.

I believe the sale may be driven by a combination of:

1- Position trimming - As of the October 24 newsletter SGI holding was 8.9% of portfolio

2- A shift of capital to an algorithmic investing approach they’re recently introduced

3- Reduction in fund size - $84M in December 2019 to $26M in October 2024 (the fund hasn’t been performing great since November 2021)

Of course it could be something completely different!



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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

A shoutout to @DrPete who first pitched Stealth group at ~10c. It's now approaching a 5x return, driven by solid execution which was at the core of the thesis.

This is exactly why I started Strawman. I doubt I would ever have come across Stealth otherwise.

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Strawman
Added one year ago

Not sure what's behind this pump for Stealth Global, but I'm here for it!

(That and the orange coin are doing a lot of the heavy lifting for me right now, and lord knows my portfolio needs it.)

I'm mindful that only a relatively small amount of capital has affected this latest rally, and things can always reverse quickly, but my hope is that it's more about others in the market recognising the value prop.

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mikebrisy
Added one year ago

@Strawman volume yesterday was about 240k shares and about another 230k so far today, which is way above average but still small fry in the grand scheme of things. $SGI has for some time had quite a few buyers waiting to get in at low SP and relatively few sellers holding out for higher SP. So someone (or several someones?) has gotten tired of waiting and agreed to step up an take the plunge....maybe triggering a little mini-FOMO?

Like you, I'm not complaining!


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DrPete
Added one year ago

@Strawman, your Equity Mates interview went live earlier this week, in which Stealth was one of your 10 buys. Maybe Stealth reached a new audience? Gradually then suddenly. Even now though the price isn't stupid. But maybe getting close to fair given risks and illiquidity. Plenty of upside even if Mike only achieves half is vision. And a modest increase in NPAT to $2m would still only puts them on PE of 10. We may see price dip if this bump brings out sellers.

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Strawman
Added one year ago

Ha, maybe I should invoice Mike for the investor relations work!

I have mentioned it on several other pods and Ausbiz appearances over the last year or so, and that never moved the dial.. so I'm not sure I can claim credit. Maybe because I was also talking up other greatest hits like Envirosuite, Catapult and Pointerra...

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Hackofalltrades
Added one year ago

Can't wait for your next buy hold sell episode, but this time with 10 sells in it. :P

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Strawman
Added one year ago

It should be obvious by now that anything I label a "Buy" is more likely a "Strong sell".

The inverse Strawman portfolio would have had a cracker of a year!

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Shapeshifter
Added one year ago

I think you modestly underestimate the power of your jawboning @Strawman !

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mikebrisy
Added one year ago

Fascintating behaviour at $SGI.

Consistently over the last two weeks, there have been around 5 buyers for every seller, and pending buy orders to sell order volumes also around 4:1 to 5:1.

But this morning its got even tighter. Buys in the queue up to 1m shares, up from typically 0.8m, but the sells having almost dried up.

Glad to be on board, but just wishing I'd done so with a more meaningful position.

This may have more to run. As the price advances, the buy queue keep upping their prices, hoping for the inevitable (?) pullback.

Disc: Held in RL and SM



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Chagsy
Added one year ago

My sentiments exactly. I thought I had another 3 months at least and had been slowly picking up shares with lowball bids but was about 60-70% of the way to my desired position sizing. I now find myself, in under a couple of weeks, being at the point where I’m approaching selling down to maintain that position size!

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BigStrawbs70
Added one year ago

I was always anticipating (read: hoping) that this push would occur; hence, I have been a long-term holder, and IRL have kept dollar-cost averaging in. Like everyone else, I am thrilled to see the expected (again read: hoped) gains starting to materialise.

What will be interesting, as you touch on @mikebrisy, is if this is FOMO or the market finally starting to recognise the quality of $SGI. Either way, I am quietly hopeful that the share price will be higher in 5-7+ years, so I will keep dollar-cost averaging regardless of what the share price does in the shorter term.

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