Forum Topics LRK LRK General Discussion
Timocracy
Added 2 years ago

@shivrak I appreciate your position on Lark after the CFO’s resignation.

It does seem quite sudden and odd that they wouldn’t have had a replacement lined up. The one counterpoint worth mentioning is that Alex Aleksic (now former CFO) also had/has his own startup consulting agency called Rightsize Advisory which appears to be a 2019 project. One could excuse taking the certainty of a paycheque over the tumultuous C19 era and building a reputation as an ASX listed CFO while trying to get the business off the ground. Perhaps the financial incentive is within his own venture presents a higher risk/rewards at present? Especially given the muddy waters at Lark and questionable leadership structure post-scandal.

I have left jobs in the past on short notice based on unsettling disagreements on directional changes. That being said, I was never on a $400k salary.


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bjbart
Added 2 years ago

Hey @ValueDownunder,

thanks for your great work on Lark here and elsewhere. I’m interested in your take on the current and future management of the company. I’ve been stung before by a new CEO with fantastic credentials looking like they’re making things happen, only to bail at a critical time. I guess the uncertainty around leadership is pretty much the main thing from stopping buying in. How do you see it as it stands?

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Chagsy
Added 3 years ago

Premium products are an interesting area. Please read this with the caveat that none of this is an area I have any expertise in!

There are various components that constitute why consumers are prepared to pay a ridiculous amount of money for a premium product, all IMHO (much as I despise that acronym)

1) scarcity or rarity

2) perception/branding

3) influencers/advertising/market perception

4) quality

The interplay between these is complex, opaque and shifts over time. Sometimes rapidly.

We all know that cosmetics are sold on the promise of a combination of these. As a male (cis-, heterosexual, just a bloke really) I have very little understanding of why some cream in a fancy pot, with component parts costing $2 and with no Scientific basis behind it, can retail for $200 because of some vague promotional suggestions of keeping you younger looking, plus an endorsement from a Hollywood actress.

Premium Whisky might not be so different.

It is aspirational, exclusive and quite possibly not much better than the usual stuff. Studies looking at blind wine tasting routinely and repeatedly show that "experts" will choose $20 wine over $200 on a blind tasting but not when they know how much it costs - expectations and pre-conceived ideas win every time!

A friend of mine has created a brand of whisky and done a lovely job of branding and promotion. He decided to enter it into the San Francisco world whisky and won a Silver in the World's and a Gold at the NZ Drammy's.

So, in summary, the usual values to measure a company's advantage are quite different - and the metrics are not something that we can easily assess.

C

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Shapeshifter
Added 3 years ago

There are three types of whisky buyers:

1) People who buy to drink (that's me!)

2) People who buy to collect (that's me a little bit)

3) People who buy to flip onto the secondary marklet to make a few bucks (definitely not me)

What has been driving up prices in recent years are the collectors and flippers. What's important about this is often the distilleries don't benifit from the high prices on secondary markets. To illustrate with an example this Sullivans Cove whisky sold for $400 at the Winter Feast Dark Mofo festival in 2021 and just recently sold on the secondary market for $1,700. There were only 110 bottles produced. A big component driving the price up is lack of availability. Supply is severely linited. Quality (rightly so in my opinion) is perceved as good. Then queue the flippers and the collectors and the result is the big prices on the secondary market.

I do think the example of experts unable to tell the difference between $20 and $200 wine is overused. The logical conclusion of this thinking is quality is irrelevant. This is not true. Let me describe what has happened to my favourite whisky Springbank. It is the only distillery left in Scotland to complete the entire process of whisky making on site. That is malting, mashing, fermentation, distillation, maturing and bottling. They are still family owned. It is amazing whisky. The secret got out a few years ago and now the small allocation that Australia gets is snapped up by savvy and shrewd operators who..... you guessed it largely flip it into the secondary market for profit. The distillery does not see these profits. The distillery is severly supply limited. It can't ramp up to meet demand because increasing output from the stills is not possible and anyway there is a 10+ year lag time it takes to mature the whisky before it is drinkable. If there were no supply constraints the secondary market would disappear. The flippers and most of the collectors would disappear. Demand would drop then probably so would the prices at the distillary.

Circling back to Lark. It currently has people who buy it to drink. There is not much secondary market interest in Lark. It is not perceived as collectable. The flippers are not interested. Can they sustain premium prices? Particularly when there is not much internation interest? If Lark wants to shift large volumes of whisky it will largely be at a lower prices. There are limits to where promotion will take you.

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Seymourbutts
Added 3 years ago

Lark wins Australian Whisky of the Year and Distillery of the Year (2021 Awards)


In the news last week for all the wrong reasons - so earlier this week Lark welcomed some better news. It was named as the Australian Distillery of the Year, and won the Whisky of the Year at the Australian Whisky Awards (sounds like an awards night I'd like to attend).

Full write up that I saw this can be found here (about a 2-minute read).

Currently not held IRL (remains on my watchlist), but have taken a swig on Strawman.

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Shapeshifter
Added 3 years ago

Just to put in a slightly contrarian view as someone who enjoys and drinks a wide range of whisky, Lark does not have the international award winning pedigree that Sullivans Cove does.


I know that Sullivans Cove is more expensive with lower availability however Lark prices are creeping into the upper premium bracket.


My observation is this: overseas whisky drinkers perceive Australian whisky as interesting but overpriced. Sullivans Cove can support high prices because of realtively low output and its reputation.


My question is this: can Lark support its proposed growth with Australian whisky drinkers only?

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