@jayjayjayjay at a system level, sign-ups are indeed slowing as NBN penetration matures. However, I think that is reflected in valuations, because the data is published by NBNCo. It is certainly relfected in mine!
The question I am interested in, is to what extent $ABB's marketing and brand strength allow it to outperform the industry and take share. That's the key thing I'll be looking for at the next result, as it is central to the thesis.
On this deal, it's not material for $ABB, so I'd hope they only took it on if the deal was favourable to them. Given the decision by Uniti to exit this segment, I'd assume the benefit for them is that it allows them to take out some costs. From a commercial perspective, that prize would be what the Aussie side of the negotiation would be looking to get a share of. But of course, if Uniti ran a competitive process for the sale, there's always "winner's curse" to think about.
Taking a step back, I would expect $ABB to have a disciplined process for assessing Value per Customer and ROI, whether acquired organically or inorganically. Provided that's the case, then I am indifferent to the mode of acquisition. The only slight qualification would be that I like $ABB to continue to get the maximum number of customers on the highest value plans.
I've also noticed $ABB SP roll of its recovery trend. I guess until the proof point of the next result, we are at the whim of macro news, momentum traders and spurious narratives (I saw a broker recommendation recently which was "Sell - high interest rates will affect share price" ... go figure!
Disc: Held in RL and SM