I agree. It looks reasonably priced, and may even be worth starting a small position in if you don't already hold, but it looks like the broader macro winds are only just turning into headwinds, and there is a significant risk to the downside as they continue to blow through the economy.

Agree with @Solvetheriddle that more downgrades are to come from retail sector. Bunnings will be part of it, although WES with the diverse business revenue should hold up their overall eps. I'm hoping for oversold market reaction to jump in with some dry powder to WES.

Personally im wating for the leaders, Bunnings, JBH, NCK to have sizeable downgrades. the macro squeeze has been a long time coming, now looks like here. one of the most useful analysis you can do is work out if a company is over or under earning. retail was definitely over earning, will it now under earn or keep on trend? dont know that but its important to consider when scaling in. definitely CDisc an area to watch closely this year imo

What's most concerning, is we haven't yet hit anywhere near the peak of fixed mortgage deals roling onto variable rates, which sucks out a lot of discretionary spend. And, of course, the potential for softening of the labour market is yet to unfold. Possible offsets, moving ahead, are immigration and house prices picking up again.

Personally, I've decided to hold my two retail position ($ADH and $NCK) through the cycle. I've missed the smarter time to sell and it could be a dumb decison to do so now. Its a paper loss until you make it real, and I think both companies will still be there in 3 years time.