Forum Topics C79 C79 Q4FY23 Results

Pinned straw:

Last edited 9 months ago

My review and summary of C79's Q4FY23 result announcement of last week. Text in italics are my comments, the rest are extracts from the Appendix 4C announcement and preso.

Discl: Held IRL looking to top up this week and open position with SM

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Good robust revenue, TCV and samples processed QoQ and YoY
  • FY23 Prospectus targets met
  • Momentum in deployment of new units continued per plan in Q4, plan for deployment of 18 contracted units in FY24 is very much achievable due to (1) globally distributed deployment teams running in parallel (2) manufacturing and supplier capabilities are geared up for an 18 unit annual delivery target. Contracted unit pipeline extends into 2025
  • Costs are largely driven by future growth and new deployments, costs are only marginally related to the volume of samples processed by PhotonAssay units - costs appear controlled and within expectations 
  • MMAP revenue rises in a stepped manner with each unit deployed, with revenue upside from Additional Assay Charges when sample volume rises - baseline MMAP revenue for FY24 is $31m from 20 units deployed thus far, good visibility of revenue improvement with opportunity for upside from AAC - EBITDA forecast range is primarily driven by revenue
  • Net operating cashflow positive - strong cash balance, $53.4m in bank with further $21.5m bank facility to support deployment plans
  • Little to not like with how C79 has progressed in FY23 and where it is going in FY24 ...


Summary of Announcement and Presentation

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  • Strong momentum continued, with Unaudited Total Revenue1 of $8.6m in Q4 FY23, reflecting 27% growth Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) and 83% growth Year-on-Year (YoY)
  • FY23 Unaudited Total Revenue in excess of Prospectus Forecast at $26.8m
  • FY23 EBITDA is expected to surpass the FY23 Prospectus Forecast of $3.2m and will be announced with the Annual Results
  • Total of 49 contracted PhotonAssayTM units including 20 currently deployed, with the next unit, located in Ghana, expected to be operational in Q1 FY24
  • Q4 FY23 sample volumes rose to 978k representing a 20% increase QoQ and a 50% increase YoY
  • Positioned for ongoing global growth with $53.4m cash in the bank as at 30 June 2023, and access to $21.5m as committed debt funding by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

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Deployment Progress

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CashFlow Summary

  • During Q4 FY23, the Company recorded cash receipts from customers of $6.6m, compared to $5.6m in Q3 FY23. 
  • Q4 FY23 net operating cash outflows totaled $0.6m, while full year net operating cashflow remained positive at $4.2m.
  • During the Quarter, some revenue included the conversion of previous receipted client deposits being applied against invoices. 
  • The Company also finalised inventory movements, which were outlined in the previous Quarter’s 4C.
  • Staff, corporate and administration costs remain in line with Prospectus expectations, reflecting Chrysos’ increasing headcount to support growth. 
  • Chrysos Corporation ended Q4 FY23 with $53.4m cash in the bank. 

 

FY24 Guidance 

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  • Additional Assay Charges, which are incremental to contractually-committed Minimum Monthly Assay Charges, contribute significantly to the wide scope of this guidance
  • Costs are largely driven by future growth and new deployments, costs are only marginally related to the volume of samples processed by PhotonAssay units - EBITDA forecast range is primarily driven by revenue
  • As Chrysos continues to cluster units and leverage its global deployment, support and maintenance teams, the Company’s average unit-by-unit costs are expected to decrease. 
  • Globally distributed deployment teams has given the business confidence in its ability to deploy units in multiple regions simultaneously, confident it can install at least 18 units during FY24 to bring total number of units deployed to a minimum forecast of 38 units


RhinoInvestor
8 months ago

Also looking at today's just released annual report. Key things that I'll be keeping an eye on moving fowards as this thesis plays out are:

  • How much of the CBA facility they choose to draw down (looks like BBSW + 4.4% so probably in the vicinity of 9% per annum). This could introduce up to 2.7m of interest payments that could hit the EBITDA range pretty hard
  • Utilisation rate (which while they say is in line with the prospectus seems to be declining as they roll out more machines). This obviously has the key impact on the AAC (additional assay charges) which contributed 16% of revenue in FY23. Hoping that the reallocation of machines might help increase this utilisation rate.
  • An ability to keep a lid on operating expenses (especially Employees, Travel and Admin) which all doubled in FY23. Hopefully they have now ramped up the organisation to a scale which can sustain equipment.
  • Sales backlog (they say they have already got backlog to cover their FY24 deployment) that they begin to project into FY25. 49 contracted units less 21 already deployed less 18 to be deployed in FY24 = 10 units for FY25 deployment already contracted?

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  • Sustaining capital ... given their balance sheet shows 93m for 20 or 21 machines thats $4.65m per machine. With plans to deploy 18 machines this year they need $84m capital. It looks like it will be close given 54m cash + 21m undrawn loan plus 7-17m EBITDA forecast. I'm hoping these guys can manage their cash flow so they don't have to shake the tin again with investors to be able to meet FY25 plans ... 10 more machines so another 45m capital required from somewhere before they even grow their backlog further. The prospect of further dilution is my biggest fear with this company as they support "Cadence of Growth CAPEX to increase in FY24"


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DISC: Held IRL and Strawman

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