Pinned valuation:
Valuation deleted
Rudyboy
I have DRO in both my portfolio here and in real life.
All I see is a company that is ripe for PE or a listed company to swallow for their coffee money which will be a lot more than the current valuation.
Ukraine has been the best selling tool for DRO, I am 99.9% sure they will be bought out within twelve months. EBIT and tax losses are nice, but this is a company that will be valued on market potential IMHO.
RhinoInvestor
I was looking for some further evidence of use of DRO's technology in the Ukraine conflict. I know they have been reported as using it but we haven't necessarily quantified how much revenue they are generating (i.e. are the big 9.9m, 11m, 33m orders actually being purchased on behalf of Ukraine and sent as part of aid packages).
I came across the following:
- Home grown Ukrainian drone guns (KVSG6) - https://youtu.be/DI8n078obBI look like they are being assembled in someone's house
- Lithuanian based drone gun (EDM4S) - same video as above (about 3:30 in)
- Some other gun with a backpack attached to it - https://youtu.be/dOntGs0iK9s (reminds me of the Ghostbusters weapons)
- Or if all else fails, strap 6 x AK47's together and go kinetic - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/aerwDGCuP-s?feature=share
- I couldn't find any DRO assets deployed.
I like the overall DRO suite of products, but these jammer guns which seem to be driving a lot of the current ramp up revenue look like they might not have such a moat. Having done a lot of evaluation heavy lifting, The NATO part numbers etc. are a good asset for DRO though.
@Rudyboy if your acquisition prediction comes true, I'm hoping if fetches a healthy premium. I agree that much of the valuation is being driven by things like Oleg claiming it will be a 300-500m business in 5 years with 50% SaaS
RhinoInvestor
@Bradbury , not sure how sensitive your DCF is to the cash rate but for what its worth, DRO currently has 29.5m of losses on its balance sheet which I am assuming they can roll forward so they aren’t paying tax on future profits for at least the first few years in your model.