Forum Topics VAU VAU ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Added one year ago

Much of the recent share price action coming from strategic investment from SLR

Or maybe it could mean something more? Potential takeover perhaps after failing to acquire SBM's leonora operations?

Silver Lake Resources Limited (“Silver Lake” or the “Company”) wishes to advise that it has acquired approximately 383 million shares in ASX listed gold producer, Red 5 Limited (“Red 5”). The purchase represents approximately 11% of Red 5’s issued capital.

The acquisition of the holding in Red 5 is considered a strategic investment. Red 5 owns the King of the Hills operation and has an established broader footprint in the Leonora district in Western Australia. Silver Lake’s significant organically generated cash balance and forecast free cash flow provides it with the ability to move quickly on opportunities as and when they arise. Silver Lake will continue to make investment decisions and deploy capital into organic and external opportunities, consistent with its stated strategy to become a larger, lower cost and longer life business.

Bear77
Added one year ago

Strategic indeed @edgescape ! I would say that Luke Tonkin at Silver Lake would love to frustrate Raleigh Finlayson at Genesis once again. We know that Raleigh wants to roll up all the smaller Leonora players, and that definitely includes Red 5, who were in talks with both Genesis and St Barbara before the original SBM-GMD-merger proposition came out, which of course was later scuttled by Raleigh when he knew he was then in a better position and could cut a much better deal for Genesis by buying just SBM's Leonora assets without all the unwanted SBM baggage (Simberi and Atlantic). Silver Lake were happy to make that one as hard as possible for SBM and GMD to push through, and knowing Raleigh's form with Saracen, I don't think he is planning to go slowly - he'll want to roll up everything he possible can around Leonora that has any decent gold.

SLR's 11% of RED just happens to be a bee's whisker above the 10% plus one share that consitutes a minimum "blocking" stake, meaning nobody can takeover all of Red 5 now without getting SLR on board. The compulsory acquisition number is 90%, and SLR's stake prevents everyone else (especially Genesis Minerals) from getting 90% of RED, so Genesis or any other potential acquirer of RED (other than SLR themselves of course) could only ever get a controlling stake, not full ownership, unless SLR agree to sell their stake. This could also be strategic in that Red 5 is not particularly expensive at the minute, and if there is M&A interest - and there will be sooner or later - the value of that 11% will surely increase. It's quite a smart play really. But Raleigh won't like it much!

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Genesis Minerals' Raleigh Finlayson.


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Silver Lake Resources' MD, Luke Tonkin.


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Red 5's KOTH (King Of The Hills) Gold Mine operating near Leonora. Originally owned by Saracen Minerals, the first gold mining company established by Raleigh Finlayson, who now heads up Genesis Minerals. Saracen merged with Northern Star Resources in late 2020 (completed in early Feb 2021) via NST taking over SAR (Saracen), after which Raleigh left NST and started Genesis.


Additional: Actually, RED now has a market value of $917.5m, which is probably getting up there for a single processing plant (KOTH) processing gold from 2 locations (KOTH plus Darlot underground mine, 100km NE of KOTH - the ore is trucked to KOTH for processing). They do not actually look cheap up here to be honest, however I guess they're being priced based on the gold they own that is still in the ground - as shown in this slide:

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The KOTH Mill is running consistently at 137.5% of nameplate capacity (5.5Mtpa vs nameplate of 4.0Mtpa), so really hitting its straps, and they have gold out to at least 2037 based on that slide above.

The business doesn't look real good in the rear-view mirror:

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$81.9m net debt at June 30, high costs (AISC), lost money in FY23 (negative NPAT).

However, they look better in terms of progress made and future plans.


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Source: Red5-FY23-Financial-Results-Presentation.PDF


165.5Koz Au produced in FY23 makes them a decent mid-tier Australian gold producer, and their FY24 production guidance (reaffirmed on August 29th with their FY23 results) is 195,000 – 215,000 ounces at an AISC of A$1,850 - A$2,100/oz. Those costs are high, but that's still a fair amount of gold, and if the A$ gold price stays up around A$2,800 to A$3,000 or higher, they're still making good coin even with those high costs. And their mines are both located in one of the safest and most predictable gold regions globally, the WA central goldfields (north of Kalgoorlie).

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They've come a long way from Siana.

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edgescape
Added one year ago

@Bear77

The first thing that comes to my mind is the gold hedge book

300K ounces of gold!

That number of ounces could be the amount of reserve for a small gold mine.

I was willing to take the risk in Red5 at $0.19 for my comp portfolio given it is an outlier in the ASX300 and it was outperforming in the gold sector

But not brave enough in real life after seeing the debt and hedge book. Shows why Capricorn Metals is worlds apart despite the lower gold reserve than Red5.

Nevertheless this Tradingview chart says it all, it was clearly a buy around August. I also don't usually use charts as they sometimes give false signals like those sell/buy labels in the Supertrend community script which I found can't be trusted. But there is decent volume here, looks like this can hold despite approaching fair value. Implying the possibility of corporate activity at Red5.

I guess if you strip the debt and the expected loss on the hedge book, the NAV of KOTH could be around 1.1 Bn.

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