The one plastic surgeon I work with doesn’t like it N=1. He doesn’t work in a burns centre, and didn’t give me a good reason.

I think they have a really rosy future: The short term negatives however:

1. their cash burn at the moment is through the roof, secondary to doubled staff recently.
2. Before a hospital can buy their product they have to get VAC (value analysis committee) approved this can take 6-12 months. They have been recently approved for soft tissue, so the cross over hospitals who treat burns and trauma can use it in those hospitals but those hospitals that don’t will be a while until they can.
3. Company says they won’t need to capital raise, but I’m not so sure about that. They are spending money to make it at the moment. I guess being listed in America though means it might be a little less of a big deal.
4. Full automation still a while off.. see below.

Positives:

1. Studies showed non inferiority and saved skin. This is pretty big, having been apart of multiple patients that have take backs to theatre for skin grafts the less skin taken the better.
2. Full automation January 2024. Previously took two people 45 minutes of work. I think this will be a huge change up for the company. At the end of the day theatre time is money, in the USA it can be up to 100 dollars a minute for theatre time. If there is no delay it will be used.
3. The growth is very solid with vitiligo in the mix now as well. Revenue is up 41% YOY.

I like this more than polynovo as a stock personally. To clarify polynovo is a synthetic polymer that is used to aid repair and still needs a skin graft over the top of it. Avita decreases the amount of skin needed for a skin graft.

Short term: I think they will need a capital raise and who knows what the bottom is? Long term I’m a hold. I don’t have time to pick highs and lows I think this will be around in 5-10 years.

Held IRL not on straw man