Forum Topics RFT RFT Quick Maths

Pinned straw:

Last edited 2 months ago

2 plus 2 is 4, minus 1 that's 3, quick maths.

The normally tight-lipped RFT management provided some granular detail I didn't expect to receive in the recent annual report by breaking out how much of the contracts received from Tritium and i-charging had been delivered and what was remaining. 75% of Tritium's $20m USD order has been completed, and 37% of i-charging's $22m order has as well. That leaves ~$19m USD to deliver with management stating they were on track to complete by the end of 1H24.

Which gives us a nice platform to work off what the 1H result may look like. At a 65c exchange rate that gives us ~$29m AUD from those two contracts. I expect the remaining business to contribute it's usual $3m plus in FY23 there was $4m in non-Tritium/i-charging EV revenue which I am not sure how to account for looking forward but let's assume that is $1m in the current half.

Tally that all up and it comes to ~$33m revenue in 1H24, compared to $19m last year. EBITDA margins fell half on half last year from 25% to 23% as RFT takes a slight margin haircut on the large volume orders, so let's apply the 23% margin to get $7.5m EBITDA. I see no reason why ITDA would change much from it's ~$500k a half leaving $7m profit before tax. Apply a 25% tax rate and you get $5.25m NPAT for 1H24.

At a current market cap of $65m, $5m+ earnings in the first half would leave the business trading exceptionally cheaply especially given the growth. Of course, the big question is what does the 2H look like as those big contracts roll off. When he presented to Strawman, Exec Director Nick Yeoh noted that once their rectifiers are integrated into a customers product the decision to shift away isn't taken lightly. Given i-charging's Blueberry chargers are so new to market I can't see them shifting away and would expect some commentary on a further commercial relationship with them. Tritium is harder to peg given it's never been disclosed exactly what products RFT's rectifiers are in and there is a chance newer products have been designed without them.

I plan on getting down to the AGM in November and seeing if I can get some light shed on the big question of what does 2H24 and onward look like. Commentary from the annual report was positive, but no doubt the market would like the certainty of renewed contracts or supply agreements.

a month ago

Great Analysis Wini - I suppose a question I keep coming back to is why they are so tight lipped about prospects and upcoming developments. Are they concerned about competition as the industry does not see huge differentiation between suppliers or is there some other reason? It would appear slightly counter intuitive to not be slightly more communicative to shareholders and the market.


a month ago

@BullsWool I think the irony is based on their history I could argue that RFT have been much more open in the last couple of years on their prospects and what they are working on! This is a management team that has never divulged much information to investors and let their results do the talking. Unfortunately in a bear market where investors are waiting to jump at the slightest shadow, this approach is not ideal. Hopefully AGM coming up provides some clarity, or even better a new contract with Tritium/i-charging.

2 months ago

Nice analysis.

I think you've reiterated my main worry (highlighted about a month ago) about the concentration risk of Rectifier's business. Maybe I need to retitle that post "Concentration Risk and an Imminent Demand Cliff". Hopefully RFT will be able to announce some major contract renewals with Tritium soon

Tried to do some more digging around Tritium and i-Charging.

  • I notice i-Charging now seems to have a reseller in Australia
  • I also found some stuff about their distribution in Asia (Hong Kong and Macau) ... with MuCharging ... interestingly they seem to have about 41 chargers in operation on free trial and a backlog of other projects (but these all seem to be the small residential chargers for apartment buildings)
  • Its pretty hard to find out much about them (but given that the RFT gear is definitely in their current gen chargers, they are probably the best bet to drive RFT revenue)
  • Still haven't been able to find out anything more on Tritium's ongoing use of RFT technology in their next generation of chargers, but notice that Tritium's share price is up 17% in the last few days which I presume is on the basis of their annoucement of an order for 200 units in France