Ava Risk Group Limited

ASX:AVA

Ava Risk Group Limited

ASX:AVA
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$0.130 (0%)
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#14
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Reports (16) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics AVA AVA Quarterly Review

Pinned straw:
Bradbury
Added 6 months ago

The Good

  • Significant improvement in sales from the access division, which was previously indicated by management on the back of the certification of the cobalt series of locks. These are stocking orders under the framework agreement, so whether or not the level of sales can be maintained is yet to be seen.

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The Not So Good

  • Revenue guidance for H1FY24 of $14.2m to $15.2m which is in line with $15m from H2FY23. This also means that the revenue in H2 needs to be at least $22m to meet management’s previous 3 year targets from the September investor presentation.


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  • Illuminate division still struggling to show signs of growth. This was put down to macro factors. Management once again reiterated confidence in seeing growth in FY24.


Watch Status:

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What To Watch

  • Slower sales in detect was put down to sales cycles and likely to see an uptick in Q2.
  • Q2 sales orders will need to be significantly higher for revenues to enable time for revenue to land in FY24.
  • Potential sales growth in illuminate from growing global footprint.
fcmaster26
6 months ago

I think it's almost certain that AVA will not reach the $36M revenue target in FY24.

But still, if they managed to increase the margin to 14%, I'll still be a happy holder.

Otherwise, things will get very ugly.

20
Strawman
6 months ago

Yeah I agree @fcmaster26 -- margin is also key here (as is so often the case). Even with FY24 revenue of $30m a 14% EBITDA margin will more than double the operating profit.

My view is that even if they fall short of their 3 year target, things probably look cheap -- so long as the general trend for revenue and margins is positive.

EG, rather than a 3 year target of $100m at a 25% EBITDA margin, perhaps they just get to $60m on a 15% margin (well short!) -- that'd still justify a market cap much higher than it is today.

The market seems to need more evidence that that general trend can be realised, which is fair enough. But a re-rate could be swift if/when it can be demonstrated.

23
NewbieHK
6 months ago

The highlight (tongue in cheek) in the update is the 0.0017c share special dividend. I will be taking this out Dec 15 for a special Christmas Sushi dinner. Unfortunately, I won’t be tipping as that will be reserved to pay the tax on this special slightly perplexing unfranked dividend.

12
acarbone1
6 months ago

Hopefully it’s a sign of early profitability

10
fcmaster26
6 months ago

I think it’s just AVA following the dividend policy no matter what.

7