Thanks for your updates and insights @mikebrisy, @Tom73 and @wtsimis. Sounds like a strong meeting with quite a detailed trading update from Mike. Some AGMs are dry. Mike’s openness perhaps reflects his confidence in progress and comfort in share price increase.
Stealth has now more than doubled in value for me. I built to a large position and I’m now pondering my outsized holding. I’m also contemplating @Strawman’s frequent reflection that some of his bigger regrets are decreasing holding too early. Stealth is now around the fair value that I’ve posted on Strawman for the last couple of years. That fair value was based on a discount rate of 20% that I used because of razor thin profit and illiquidity.
I’ll continue to hold. My 20% discount rate implies a forecast 20% return at current share price. The assumptions behind my valuation are starting to seem conservative with the continued positive and open updates from Mike. I’ll resist the fear, trust in the process, and continue to stay the course!
Another reflection and lesson for me with Stealth … In an odd way I’ve been lucky that Stealth has taken so long to see a significant share price increase. I started accumulating 3 years ago. I presented my stock pitch for Stealth on Strawman a couple of years ago soon after I joined in late 2021. My conviction just continued to grow with the support of all of you in the Strawman community who have debated the pros and cons of Stealth. Up until about a year ago I continued to build my holding until it was my largest holding and I wasn’t comfortable putting more in. All up it was about 3 years between first investment and significant increase in share price. Our natural desire is for price to increase as soon as we start to invest, that provides immediate validation of how smart we are. But quick price increase deprives the opportunity to steadily dollar cost average into a large holding.
So, note to future self; be content when the share price DOESN’T increase soon after you spot an opportunity, it’s better to be slowly right than quickly right.