Forum Topics SGI SGI AGM

Pinned straw:

Added 12 months ago

Thanks for your updates and insights @mikebrisy, @Tom73 and @wtsimis. Sounds like a strong meeting with quite a detailed trading update from Mike. Some AGMs are dry. Mike’s openness perhaps reflects his confidence in progress and comfort in share price increase.

Stealth has now more than doubled in value for me. I built to a large position and I’m now pondering my outsized holding. I’m also contemplating @Strawman’s frequent reflection that some of his bigger regrets are decreasing holding too early. Stealth is now around the fair value that I’ve posted on Strawman for the last couple of years. That fair value was based on a discount rate of 20% that I used because of razor thin profit and illiquidity.

I’ll continue to hold. My 20% discount rate implies a forecast 20% return at current share price. The assumptions behind my valuation are starting to seem conservative with the continued positive and open updates from Mike. I’ll resist the fear, trust in the process, and continue to stay the course!

Another reflection and lesson for me with Stealth … In an odd way I’ve been lucky that Stealth has taken so long to see a significant share price increase. I started accumulating 3 years ago. I presented my stock pitch for Stealth on Strawman a couple of years ago soon after I joined in late 2021. My conviction just continued to grow with the support of all of you in the Strawman community who have debated the pros and cons of Stealth. Up until about a year ago I continued to build my holding until it was my largest holding and I wasn’t comfortable putting more in. All up it was about 3 years between first investment and significant increase in share price. Our natural desire is for price to increase as soon as we start to invest, that provides immediate validation of how smart we are. But quick price increase deprives the opportunity to steadily dollar cost average into a large holding.

So, note to future self; be content when the share price DOESN’T increase soon after you spot an opportunity, it’s better to be slowly right than quickly right.

GazD
Added 12 months ago

@DrPete Well done on your longstanding following of SGI and your excellent posts over that time.

A philosophical musing. I infer from your post that you feel like you've now been proved 'right'. Is that based on the continuing improvement in fundamentals? the SP? or both? And if the SP were to fall tomorrow back to 10 - 12 cents (on no significant news) would you feel like you remained 'right'? Would you buy more?

FWIW I feel like SGI is on a solid footing and I'm grateful to you and others for your coverage of this stock (hold IRL). It's not a huge holding for me IRL but again FWIW I plan not to sell any winners as long as their fundamentals support their rise in SP. We'll see if and when I end up with outsized positions whether I'm true to that plan.

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DrPete
Added 12 months ago

@GazD Sorry if I sounded cocky, didn’t mean to. Can’t help feeling temporarily “right” when share price is up substantially. That’s the best we can ever hope for as investors, we predict an outcome and hopefully it happens. In a deeper sense we’re never “right” because we don’t know what tomorrow brings.

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GazD
Added 12 months ago

@DrPete i wasn’t actually feeling iot meaning you were cocky (although reading my post back I see how it seemed that way). My question was a genuine question about how we can frame our take in the setting that our base case appears to be on track.


more importantly I wondered along similar lines to @Strawman abojt what degree of conviction we need to maintain an outsized position or even add to it if the business is executing.

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