Forum Topics AVA AVA Sentiment

Pinned straw:

Last edited 5 months ago

52-week low today.

I think it's pretty indicative of the current small-cap space sentiment that any neutral or mildly positive news is taken as negative and incredibly suspicious by the market.

That other "though shall not be named" investing forum that rhymes with "big bopper" seems like it's going to spontaneously self-combust any second due to other-worldly level negative vibes.

Management of a lot of my portfolio such as AVA are desperately awkward trying to navigate announcements through this sentiment/minefield and are cocking up communication strategies compounding the whole vibe.

Maybe they should all just release quarterlies and nothing else.

Takes about one second for any announcement to be turned toxic by the mob.....lol.

#merrychristmas

Strawman
5 months ago

A flushing out of the weak hands perhaps @topowl?

Share price is down 22% over the last 12 months. At the same time, revenue from continuing operations and new sales orders up strongly, operating margins expanding, and management guiding for "substantively higher" H2 revenues, and talking up ambitions for up to $100m in revenue within 3 years. No imminent threat of a cap raise. Ok, sure, there are negatives, and we're yet to see if they can deliver on some of these ambitious targets, but it seems there's a disconnect here.

Some fairly timid assumptions will get you to at least $4m in EBITDA in the next couple of years (in fact, it could easily be double this), and yet the enterprise value of the company is $40m.

To be fair, I don't think the market is unreasonable in wanting to see some solid evidence that the much touted growth will be realised. But if there are any signs of that, I bit of a re-rate would seem likely.

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fcmaster26
5 months ago

The H2 guidance actually made me quite nervous and we should all ignore it when making AVA related decisions.

The share price will probably sink badly if the company announced a $16.5-17.5M H2 guidance (which is pretty good btw) in the Q3 trading update.

The company has the habit of seizing every opportunity to make projections and avoiding making announcements whenever they can. I will be asking about those projections when I get the chance.

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Wakem
5 months ago

Agree @fcmaster26 I'm not sure who the biggest CEO dud of 2023 is ? They constantly over sell! and make poor capital allocation (And i hold these either IRL or Strawman)

  • AVA ?, Overly optimistic and special dividend - come on
  • Pointerra ? ,Ian is a complete used car salesman, pumps everything up and capital raises..
  • Envirosuite, Overly optimistic...
  • Alcidion, Capital raises!



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fcmaster26
5 months ago

AVA must be the most optimistic.

Other CEOs over promise and get capital raise.

AVA is seriously giving away cash for no reason. They must genuinely believe the company will do surprisingly well in H2.

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Wakem
5 months ago

Overly optimistic CEO's are likely my biggest Red flag now

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fcmaster26
5 months ago

To be fair, Rob was the one making 3 year 100M projection in the first place.

Let’s hope Mal doesn’t elaborate from that.

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