Arafura Rare Earths Limited

ASX:ARU

Arafura Rare Earths Limited

ASX:ARU
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$0.190 (-2.6%)
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#96
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Forum Topics ARU ARU #cap raise

Pinned straw:
PinchOfSalt
Added 5 months ago

ARU raising $30M at 16c / share, a 20% discount to the last traded price of 20c.

Looking for $20M via a placement and $10M from the SPP.

Could be a good opportunity for @Parko5 to build a bigger position
Parko5
4 months ago

Hi @PinchOfSalt

Sorry for the slow reply. I have been in Japan snowboarding. It was EPIC.

It was a great chance to clear my head.

I have decided not to participate in the ARU SPP.

My Rationale and stategy is as follows:

  • I am pissed with Management. I don't believe they had to do this raise, the timing is terrible and they have screwed retail by not giving us Options.
  • It has also (in my opinion but without proof), given the shorters the ability to buy back their shares and exit their short positions. Thus management have given them this free kick.
  • The SPP is limited to $30k. So this will dilute me anyway.
  • I believe that Financial Close will not happen until after the Federal Budget (early May). They are likely to get some of the Citicial Mineral Fund. And I'm sure the Govt will want to do the annoucement that suits their timing in the weeks prior to the Budget or on Budget day.
  • This will give the shorters/manipulators months to play with the SP.
  • I believe they will have another attack on ARU since they have likely exitied their short positions and are now cashed up. So they will use that cash to drive the SP down and shake the tree and try to accumulate as many weak hands as they can. And go long.
  • I will probably starting buying around Feb/March in the 10-13 cent range.


The fundamentals have not changed for ARU. In fact, they have improved with the recent Taiwan election. This will only escalate China's reactions to the west. And this will add tail winds to ARU even though the manipulators may push the SP down.

What do other think?

Parko

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Parko5
3 months ago

SP hit 11 cents today.

This is market manipulation at its best.

Tmrw will be intresting at the Quarterly zoom meeting at 1pm AEST.

Key questions:

  • What are ARU doing to get money from the Aust Govt Critital Mineral Fund? Surely they will throw something in (on top of the NT money and other Aust Govt Export Agency money)?
  • Is GE in or out? (my research says they are IN...but just internal head office 'slowness' is holding things up. Then we need to wait for the German Credit Export Agency to go through their process.
  • Why was the captial raise done with lots of cash in the bank? And why was retail not given options?


At this point....I am still a believer. I believe the project will go ahead. The tier one off take businesses want non-china, ESG compliant rare earths. I also think that China will start to flex their muscle in the next few years given the Taiwan election. Pushing rare earth prices up.

It is darkest before dawn.....

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