Forum Topics DRO DRO Bear Case

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Summer12
Added 10 months ago

Never suck. For you .49 was r the correct decision.

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Saiton
Added 10 months ago

Thanks Summer. I did make one mistake that i will share with you. I was taught to let your winners run and I didnt.

What I mean by this, I was one of the first to get out at my target level. Thats a NO NO. I was always taught to sacrifice a little of the profit at your perceived top to see if its actually going to drop or is it just a bump or stalling there, soon to continue again. I guess thats what the pro's would do. I sold out 700K shares and it hardly made a bump in the share $ telling me, they were just gobbled up. Maybe I should have bought back in straight away again and lost $1000 odd to brokerage, at least I would have continued the run.

I was so happy my emotions got the better of me and didnt stick to my rules. Its a good lesson for me.

At the same time I had another sizable position on WHC- White Haven Coal. Was 12% ahead and saw signs of it turning down however once again emotions got me and I hung in there and just got out today at 2% gain. Yes I didnt loose on it however theres no point in taking such risk for just 2%.

Thought I would share so of my experiences recently


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RhinoInvestor
Added 10 months ago

@Saiton, thanks for sharing. There are a lot of emotions associated with every buy and sell (and if you look at the stock price too often every paper loss and gain).

Well done for a large buy in @30c and getting out where you did (you can't really complain about what looks like a 60% gain) and if I read the thread properly with 700K shares thats 133K capital gain (before tax).

Personally, I'm hanging out for the DRO share price to hit $1 before I liquidate ... on a forum like this, the way I set the target price is a bit embarrassing and its certainly not by any means a well thought through valuation. I think I've been looking for a bunch of planets to align:

  • Company moves to profitability and positive cash flow
  • Company revenue continues to grow in line with past trends and management guidance
  • Management doesn't vote themselves too many more shares/options and dilute everyone further
  • Revenue mix moves more towards SaaS/recurring and away from the one time drone gun sales (hopefully rewarding company with a good forward PE multiple ... I think TTM is about 200x due to just becoming profitable but I've seen some calculations currently putting it around 15x forward which I think is low if they become a SaaS company with growth (rule of 40 revenue growth rate % + profit margin %)
  • Giving my holding long enough to qualify for 50% CGT discount
  • Maybe seeing DRO as a strategic acquisition for a larger US Defence company (eg. Epirus who took 4.1% of DRO a while back https://www.suasnews.com/2022/11/epirus-invests-3-7-million-in-droneshield/ and had a 1.35B valuation when they last raised capital or alternatively someone much bigger) to give DRO a nice 20 to 30% lift


I have to say, the current SP hitting $0.70c does seem a bit frothy and the market cap is certainly way ahead of where I thought it would be by now.

DISC: Held IRL and Strawman

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