Forum Topics DRO DRO Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Driven by emotions? wow how about drone shield. At what stage does the market think this is crazy and they sell sending it plummeting. I bought in a V large position @ 0.30 & got out @ 0.49. I was very happy at the time and still am however, WTH. Its like I got off the train at the station and then they upgraded the train to the XPT and took off. DAM IT. Im surprised no one is talking about it. Even Bell Porter had there Target at 0.50 which worked perfectly with my Fibonacci levels. Ill be watching for the drop (hopefully) Well done for those of you that have hung in there.

Ill just be quiet now and sook in the corner

Summer12
3 months ago

Never suck. For you .49 was r the correct decision.

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Saiton
3 months ago

Thanks Summer. I did make one mistake that i will share with you. I was taught to let your winners run and I didnt.

What I mean by this, I was one of the first to get out at my target level. Thats a NO NO. I was always taught to sacrifice a little of the profit at your perceived top to see if its actually going to drop or is it just a bump or stalling there, soon to continue again. I guess thats what the pro's would do. I sold out 700K shares and it hardly made a bump in the share $ telling me, they were just gobbled up. Maybe I should have bought back in straight away again and lost $1000 odd to brokerage, at least I would have continued the run.

I was so happy my emotions got the better of me and didnt stick to my rules. Its a good lesson for me.

At the same time I had another sizable position on WHC- White Haven Coal. Was 12% ahead and saw signs of it turning down however once again emotions got me and I hung in there and just got out today at 2% gain. Yes I didnt loose on it however theres no point in taking such risk for just 2%.

Thought I would share so of my experiences recently


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RhinoInvestor
3 months ago

@Saiton, thanks for sharing. There are a lot of emotions associated with every buy and sell (and if you look at the stock price too often every paper loss and gain).

Well done for a large buy in @30c and getting out where you did (you can't really complain about what looks like a 60% gain) and if I read the thread properly with 700K shares thats 133K capital gain (before tax).

Personally, I'm hanging out for the DRO share price to hit $1 before I liquidate ... on a forum like this, the way I set the target price is a bit embarrassing and its certainly not by any means a well thought through valuation. I think I've been looking for a bunch of planets to align:

  • Company moves to profitability and positive cash flow
  • Company revenue continues to grow in line with past trends and management guidance
  • Management doesn't vote themselves too many more shares/options and dilute everyone further
  • Revenue mix moves more towards SaaS/recurring and away from the one time drone gun sales (hopefully rewarding company with a good forward PE multiple ... I think TTM is about 200x due to just becoming profitable but I've seen some calculations currently putting it around 15x forward which I think is low if they become a SaaS company with growth (rule of 40 revenue growth rate % + profit margin %)
  • Giving my holding long enough to qualify for 50% CGT discount
  • Maybe seeing DRO as a strategic acquisition for a larger US Defence company (eg. Epirus who took 4.1% of DRO a while back https://www.suasnews.com/2022/11/epirus-invests-3-7-million-in-droneshield/ and had a 1.35B valuation when they last raised capital or alternatively someone much bigger) to give DRO a nice 20 to 30% lift


I have to say, the current SP hitting $0.70c does seem a bit frothy and the market cap is certainly way ahead of where I thought it would be by now.

DISC: Held IRL and Strawman

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