Forum Topics RUL RUL RUL valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added 9 months ago
Justification

RPM reported this evening and it was good:

bdf9f78c7491581dadf4a992a2ea0bb2c766e0.png

We are starting to see the benefits of the transition from selling contracts as a one-off, to a SaaS model.

It takes a few years for the waters to clear and the true picture to emerge.

The slide showing financial guidance for NPAT demonstrates it best.

b9459725996fcc4db1cf6f094f310bb097032d.png

They have a habit of under-promising, but if we take the full year NPAT to conservatively be $17m that should give an ROE of ~30%.

Using McNiven's formula using a required return of 10%, gives a valuation of $2.43.

If we assume they over-deliver and beat guidance, say $20m, using the same required return of 10% you can get a valuation of $3.31.

Happy holder.

mikebrisy
Added 9 months ago

@Chagsy - just crunching through my analysis now. Here are a couple of trend charts.

My only bug bear, is that I half wish they were investing in developing the platform rather than buying back shares. ALL the great tech companies spend a lot on R&D (just look at $WTC, $TNE, $ALU (sniff), without even mentioning the US giants).

But on the other hand, you can admire the capital discipline, and if they ever wanted to raise, I would support management in a heatbeat.

First chart shows the HY financial trends. The cost control is admirable, and it drives the leverage. Will it continue?

dee2d0cdbfda7698e9ef78e42fcde71f67e914.png

In the next chart I've zoomed in on the bottom line.

ef3be689c1bace6a64e25db02b052d86a004e0.png

As you may know, I prefer plotting cash trends as well, but $RUL is all over the place, as payments are heavily weighted to H2.

@Chagsy I am in the ballpark on your valuation and thinking about increasing my RL position here.

The drivers of today's result have been well signalled in the trading update and also the quarterly, so I'll not repeat.

Wrapping up for the day. MrsMikeBrisy has cracked open some pink bubbles to cheer $ALU.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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BoredSaint
Added 9 months ago

I haven’t looked closely at RUL for a while but the guidance is for net profit before tax. So I’m not sure if that changes anything in your formula.

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Chagsy
Added 9 months ago

Thank you! I have also realised that this calculation also assumes profit 100% re-invested, and not used in a share buyback.

Im not sure how much tax they will be paying given a couple of years of losses, but yes would make a difference.

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Byrnesty
Added 9 months ago

@Chagsy It is interesting that based on the FY24 forecast PBT (mid range $17.25M) PE is 25.

With revenue growth of 20% some PE expansion would be expected. Your valuation of $2.43 puts the PE in the low 30's.

It would not be unexpected for a rapidly growing software company to have a PE in the 50's.

Maybe the market is not convinced of sustainability or is still to catch up.

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mikebrisy
Added 9 months ago

@Byrnesty and @Chagsy on valuation, one thing I am looking at is checking my DCF with some sum-of-parts multiples. Remember, $RUL is not pure software, there is a sizeable consulting/services business in there too. That attracts a lower multiple as it has lower operating leverage.

In that context, a P/E of 50 would be a bit rich to me, particularly given that revenue growth, while OK, is not explosive. Also, the rate of reinvestment in the platform/buy backs concerns me.

Just heading onto the call now.

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Slideup
Added 9 months ago

@Chagsy, the profit guidance is also pre any management incentive payments. These were $3 and $3.5M in the last two financial years. Not a bad thing to be paying them if they hit their target but it does drop the PBT number down to closer to $14M.

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