Forum Topics KME KME 1H 2024 result

Pinned straw:

Added 10 months ago

Kip McGrath reported 1st half 2024 result today.

Main issue as i see it is ongoing investment in the business. It increased revenue by $2.5m but increased employee expense by $2.6m.

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This increase in employee expense increase probably coming from corporate centers ( management flagged recent corporate center acquisitions incurred additional cost of $250,000.

It seems like it lost the Abu Dhabi schools' contract after AGM i.e lost $510,000 profit and it is the probably the reason why it subtly downgraded the full year outlook

From "Expect FY24 full year NPAT to exceed prior year" at the time of AGM in November to now " FY24 full-year profit is expected to align with the prior year result"

The market has lost patience and I am not sure how long current shareholders can keep faith in management.

Bag holder.

Wini
Added 10 months ago

@Valueinvestor0909 A disappointing result. On it's own it's probably not too bad, by far the biggest hit was the loss of the Middle Eastern contract which was always a bit of a sugar hit as it was effectively licensing income for KME for a temporary Government tutoring program organised through their main regional franchisee. However it should have been flagged better that the program wouldn't continue, at least not to the same scale it did last year.

Even the corporate centre impact of underperforming centres could be easily accepted as KME has been rationalising their centre network for the last couple of years to remove underperforming or uneconomic centres. You would prefer they just close these centres but the line "For the brand we have incurred this cost as it is important for the business overall" suggests maybe some franchisees were disgruntled and perhaps threatened legal or media action if KME did not honour a corporate buyback (they have guaranteed buybacks for franchisees over a minimum student threshold).

But while you could excuse the impacts as a stand alone, it is the context of three years of muted profits that this result comes as one more gut punch. Even adjusting for the significant items management outlined (which you shouldn't completely, Tutorfly also made a loss in the 1H last year) EBITDA would have only grown in line with revenue meaning they wouldn't have scaled anyway. I think the Corporate strategy in it's current form needs to be reviewed because it is clearly not showing up as a benefit economically.

The only silver lining which has been constant over the past few years is the remarkable strength of the Franchisee segment, which only adds a further black mark to capital allocation given the underlying profitability. FY19 was the last "clean" year, where KME did $2.6m NPAT on $16.2m revenue, with the main driver $12.3m in franchise fees. Fast forward to this year and even if KME hits their big 2H recovery they will do <$2m NPAT on over $30m revenue, but importantly despite a rationalisation of the network and Corporate cannibalising centres, they will do >$15m in franchise fees. That level of high margin revenue should be translating to $3-4m NPAT, and says a lot about the profitless revenue currently being generated in the other segments.

There was certainly a tone shift in the commentary of this report, hopefully Storm has realised shareholders are fed up and will start getting serious about the cost base of the business which has clearly become inflated.

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rmoss
Added 10 months ago

The market reaction certainly indicates investors have lost patience and faith in the capital allocation decisions being taken by management.

Considering the core franchise business that produces a decent margin has been growing top line at a respectable clip it actually makes the result harder to swallow but it at least has provided a shield to the cash burn.

What is missing for my mind from the investor update is some clarity on exactly how they are addressing the issues, the levers are unchanged but they have not delivered profitable growth

Undecided whether to just walk away

18

thunderhead
Added 10 months ago

Yes, this is a lesson in capital (mis)allocation. You can try things, but the market's message is loud and clear, and Storm would do well to heed it.

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