Forum Topics ALC ALC Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited 9 months ago

Qualifier: Bull case from these levels.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02778239-3A637559

No real surprises in this announcment. Staff cost cuts were already in the pipeline, and there is "4m pa of additional cost savings" to come - I'll be very interested to see what these costs are and no doubt more will be said today.

At 1x sales, costs now coming under control, and arguably sector tailwinds with cashstrapped public health services in the Western world being reluctant to commit to a full EMR replacement, and the very not implausible chance of acquisition by one of the bigger players at these prices, the only thing pushing the price down now is sentiment.

A few contract wins, the timing of which is unpredictable, and Alcidion will be back above 10c soon enough.

Biggest sign to watch for is whether management put their money where their mouths are and start buying substantially on-market once the blockout period expires on 1 March, then I think we'll have found a floor for the price. If they don't, then that will be a red flag.

I was nursing a 75% paper loss IRL at these levels, and am confident enough to risk a bit more averaging down my buy-in price, with the upside outweighing the downside risk at the current price.

jcmleng
Added 9 months ago

Thanks all, for comments. Didn't attend the call as it clashed with an EOS call - much more exciting things happening there.

I'm in shrug-shoulder mode with a 77% paper loss IRL on ALC, after doubling down in Mar 2023. Being on the cusp of $0.00, losses from here are definitively and totally capped! ALC has some locked in recurring revenue that makes it worth something a little bit more than $0.00.

ALC would be steal from an M&A perspective if the buyer had a vision of how to integrate ALC's offerings into their solution and/or kill it altogether to move existing customers onto their platform. Might get a penny or 2 more if this happened ...

@nerdag's bullish view and doubling down is a very interesting contrarian view. The bad news, "it will come" deals are in the pipeline with some signs of a pulse, ALC's product has a reasonable installed base, potential to be taken over, together with all the uncertainties in deal closure, political uncertainty, capped investment floor etc. does make the contrarian view worth considering for me.

Will sit tight for now until iI have digested the mountain of other reports ..

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nerdag
Added 9 months ago

@jcmleng I admit, it's not a comfortable feeling adding to a very big losing position, and I am more inclined to sell out and walk away when it gets this bad.

All the negatives are out there, and there are several ways upside could manifest for Alcidion from this point on. M&A is definitely one of them.

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UlladullaDave
Added 9 months ago

There's not a lot to get excited about with today's announcement. Potential for negative top line growth and a FY loss. They are cutting costs, but the fact they are even in this position remains a massive black mark against current management.

This year is an election year in the UK which doesn't usually bode well for getting contracts through the machinery of the bureaucracy.

The sentiment around this company will change when they start showing profit. I just don't think contracts will do the trick. This just has the smell of another ASX coulda, woulda, shoulda smallcap.

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nerdag
Added 9 months ago

On the call, extra 4m in savings will be primarily from additional staff cuts, and Kate dropped that competitors are doing the same (plausible).

The other thing to note was that they are seeing signs of life in the tender space.

Contract renewal on Dartfordshire is materially higher per year, than the initial contract, already public knowledge even though not yet announced on ASX.

Nothing particularly noteworthy, and the stock is likely to trade sideways until new contracts are secured, which seems to me to be more likely than not.

This is one for the patient, and not yet burned or jilted investor.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 9 months ago

@nerdag thanks i was on the EOL call. CF breakeven in 2h is a must do. as i have written before the C suite has stuffed up here, to get in this mess, and imo speaks to the CFO being too weak to apply the hand brake when needed as well as the chair riding along. a lesson learnt for us all. damage is done, it is now priced for ongoing failure. held :(

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RhinoInvestor
Added 9 months ago

I've got some ideas about where at least 1.88m of the the cost savings target could come from (quoting the FY23 Annual report)

944af4138f1fc25882df90f96afa094c4237db.png

DISC: I am a burned and jilted investor IRL and Strawman (but they have scorced 58% of my capital already so there is so little left I'll just go along for the ride)

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JPPicard
Added 9 months ago

Hahahah @RhinoInvestor I think you're spot on with this thinking.

@nerdag you're a more courageous man than me. I think there's a lot of reasoning to think the outcome from here could be good, but a risky proposition still. Keen to see how this ages in 1 year!

For me, Management's continued tendency to blame government entities for slow buying decisions only adds to the frustration, and to me suggests a lack of accountability.

While these savings could potentially steer the company towards cash flow and profitability (even without the need for much growth) given last year's full-year loss of $3.2M, there's no guarantee they'll navigate the journey unscathed or without requiring further capital injections.

Like a lot of others, I on the wait and see bucket for now, having lost too much already.

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nerdag
Added 9 months ago

@JPPicard, courageous or stupid. Possibly in equal parts.

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NewbieHK
Added 9 months ago

Staff cuts? I thought all those staff were essential for all the work that was going to come in?

Weren’t investor told they needed to have all these paid people on the books doing absolutely nothing, but ready because it’s not like they can just be trained up on a whim, when the work arrives. The work was so specialised that they had to hit the ground running when the contracts were signed.

Well surprise-surprise-surprise I guess that’s not the case anymore?

Suggesting competitors are also cutting staff.

No was this really said?

That's straight out of the Disclaimer text book.

Seems like no one is taking ownership of this Circus. You can’t script this clown show.

Anyway, I just dropped by to see how this ship was sailing. I previously owned, but walked the plank in Jan for my own sanity.

I think the movies written on this one and only one person survives on the wooden door after the boat goes down. Now what’s that actresses first name?

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nerdag
Added 9 months ago

@NewbieHK, I'd call BS if I didn't think it was plausible. The timing was definitely wrong and very amateur-ish, but this article was being circulated when they did the cap raise late last year.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/ehrs/2023s-ehr-company-layoffs.html

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