I went to the CHL Investor Day which was definitely worth the trip. The preso released yesterday morning and summarised by @Tom73 covers most of what they discussed so I won’t repeat that here.

The Meeting

2 hour IRL session on 22-May-24 (but was recorded and should be available soon)

30 people RSVP’d, 22 showed up by my count, almost all were brokers, at least 1 fund (ICE Investors).

Meeting was held in a conference area on a wharf and my initial thoughts , were “Oh, no, they’re adding boats to the platform and this is the strategy reveal they were referring to” but then I started to think, well boats are really just an RV on water and the platform was built to be asset agnostic, there’s probably some crossover in customer base, etc, etc. So as much as I want management to stay laser focused on building out their core offering and hopefully owning the category over time, I can see how they might get tempted outside of it.

Thankfully, this is not part of their strategy (for now).

Scheduled for 2 hours, it ran for 1.5 hours with most of that hearing from 4 execs including Justin who opened and closed it, Q&A lasted about 30 mins but seemed to be fairly abruptly wrapped up early. My takeaways from all this is that I actually think management are fairly transparent but they’re better at running the business than investor relations – probably not a surprise coming from a recently listed small cap. To offset this they do tend to put on webinars and calls for results and announcements and make these recordings available.

CEO Justin and CFO Andrea are just not that comfortable up on stage delivering a presentation or taking lots of questions. Maybe that’s OK if sharper skills elsewhere more than compensate for this - TBD.

The EUR head (Desiree Mettraux) and especially ANZ (Philip Wade) head were much better in this regard.

PC migration & Implementation issues

This was expanded on a little from the announcement and call last week but management does seem to view it as a genuine one off and unsurprisingly were keen to move on. I suspect this was why they released the update they did a week prior to this Investor Day.

What did come out of their slight expansion on the issue was that it really was the hirers that were impacted (more than the owners), this was in part due to delays but also the lack of marketing spend to attract them during this period.

Separately they mentioned that repeat hirers are only about 20% (i.e. 80% churn – massive!) so I expect this has not done any significant brand damage as it was hirers that were most impacted, however owners did miss out on revenue for this period, so it’s not nothing.

Page 15 of the preso (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/chl/announcements/investor-conference-presentation-2A1524563) shows booking requests plummeting  as the migration began and only began to rebound strongly as the migration wrapped up. The only positives out of all this is that it is now done, volumes are tracking back up strongly heading into peak season and the foundation has been laid to accelerate growth from FY25, alongside the costs savings achieved.

So this goes a large part (but not all) of the way to explain why they dusted approx. 3 months of revenue over the course of a 3 month migration period as noted by @mushroompanda, but it would have been a lot better if they were a lot more transparent about this, which should not have been difficult, but management are not the best communicators.

For me, mgmt. execution risk is high and will need to be watched closely as this is a big part of the thesis.

Products

Insurance is the big one.

They’ve essentially taken the PaulCamper insurance product, improved it and are making it global (branded as “MyWay”) – the roll out starts in Australian in Aug-24 and will be rolled out globally over FY25.

Insurance will be offered to owners outside the Camplify fleet, so will likely be a valuable source of lead generation to get more Owners on the platform at lower Owner CAC.

This could be a big deal when it comes to expanding the market and owning a large share of it as the premium provider (with the best platform, UX and Insurance offering).

‘Premium’ is only available in Camplify geographies (mainly ANZ) and Premium Owners churn is “extremely low” but will be rebranded as Camper+ and rolled out globally to improve the amount of sticky owners and therefore sticky revenue in the platform – they never have any issues with demand, the challenge is always getting more Owners / Assets on the platform.

3-5 year strategy

What likely got the market excited was the 3-5 year targets laid out at the end of the preso.

The target Revenue is $125m (50% CAGR at the 4 year mid point).

Fleet Size on Platform to 2.4x, and Camper+ members to 4x in 3-5 years.

EBITDA Margins to swing from -6% (1H 24) to 20% in 3-5 years.

If the Revenue & EBITDA Margins transpire organically per these targets (to be optimistic) by year 5 (to be cautiously), EBITDA of $50m at an EBITDA Multiple of 5x would yield a Market Cap of $250m. At last night’s close of $1.50, Mkt Cap is $111.6m, so this would yield a TSR CAGR of $17.5%.

 This is probably the glass half full perspective aluded to by @Rocket6.

Other Takeaways

They’ve been strengthening their Exec team – Philip Wade (Ex-Jetstar CMO) is CCO & ANZ head, only 3 months in but presented very well and seems to have got up to speed quickly. Clearly knows the industry, has taken a bigger role in a smaller business. Made an interesting point that 90% of vans are < $200 per day in ANZ representing an attractive budget alternative for family holidays in a tough economic climate.

Andrea (CFO) was very straight laced but alarmed me slightly when she said (misspoke?) we’ve always been confident in our ability to hit consensus numbers, or something like that.

Désirée Mettraux, the new EUR head (and Chief Insurance Office) was recently promoted from within and has a lot of industry experience from adjacent operators in Europe as well as being acutely aware of the importance of insurance to grow the assets on platform.

Minimal AI spruiking - perhaps not surprising given the mainly experienced / jaded broker audience.

Focus is on driving recurring revenue via a) Insurance – up to 50% of revenue in the not too distant future, and b) Camper+ (the new Premium membership) where Owner churn is extremely low, shoring up the supply side.

Operating leverage is expected to grow EBITDA Margins from -6% (at 1H 24) to 20% in the next 3-5 years.