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Adjusted valuation to reflect the below concerns coming to fruition. On top of this, There may now be a risk of a class action against CHL here.....Failure to disclose key person left the business, and failure to disclose delays in integration at HY report.
UPDATE: Paul Camper acquisition looks like a potential disaster.
No performance hurdles in the deal, and the founders golden handcuff clause is unknown to market. Dirk Feshe, is the founder, and it appears to me he has achieved a dream exit here, and his 10% CHL holding comes out of escrow in the next few weeks. His Linkedin profile looks like someone who is not really committed to CHL, and his stated focus at CHL is incongruent with the CEOs statement there will be no more acquisitions in the short term.
PaulCamper founder just sold 3m shares - or around 42% of his holdings.
https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240725/pdf/065y2l6mwp6096.pdf
A week after the Migration Issue smashed the price by 25%, we have an investor day presentation (Media & Press Releases – Camplify Holdings Limited (ASX: CHL)) with a Q3 update that in combination with some recoveries earlier in the week has brought the price back to close to what it was prior to the Migration Issue.
I am not sure how I feel about how they handled this “confession season like” announcement in the lead up to the presentation day. I suspect they would have been criticised for delaying material information to the presentation day if they new before, but providing the information from the presentation day at the same time would have resulted in less of a sharp drop…
I should be glad for being able to pick up shares at a discount (not the bottom but better than I had hoped). The flagged issue of it just not adding up (sales fall more than 2 months of additional issues) is still not fully settled, but booking requests have recovered well, so permanent damage seems limited.
In particular I was concerned that we would see a drop in the group fleet of RV’s on the platform which is the income base. However Q3 fleet was 31,215 which is up 6% on 29,388 which is good, but there is no split out between PaulCamper and CHL, so a drop in PaulCamper may have been covered by a lift in CHL – net net it doesn’t look at this point that the damage is crippling and the thesis of long term growth and value through scale is intact.
It's interesting to see them publish consensus number in place of guidance. Presumably if they expect to be materially off consensus they will be compelled to update the market. These numbers don’t include MyWay impact is not included… is this the PaulCamper platform f-up or the potential of additional take rate from the MyWay product – I am not sure, if anyone knows please share.
Well taking the management at their word it seems things are ok with a bit of a hiccup now swallowed and it’s onwards and upwards.
Disc: I own in RL
Announcement today has sent the share price down 15% (11:30am) as the company called out technical issues in it’s migration of PaulCamper onto the Camplify platform.
Expected sales impact for FY24 is a material reduction of $3.5-4m from disruption over the migration which completed at the end of April. The company expects normal trade in the PaulCamper markets by June FY24 and to allow a clean FY25 to use the changes to rollout additional products and they expect FY25 to have $3-4m in efficiency savings from the changes.
I have used the chance to finally buy CHL, my view is the price was already pushed down by lower sales growth expectations in Europe after the H1 result, adding to concerns about Apollo’s exit from the share register and results last week that point to a week industry.
The Apollo factors I see as not materially relevant and a slow growth year as they bed down the PaulCamper integration and set the base to scale is also over discounted. So as unwelcome as todays announcement is, I see it as a temporary hitch and an opportunity to buy at a doubly discounted price.
I have not quite finished my valuation work, but enough to be satisfied with the price and was concerned I had missed a chance when the price rebounded on Monday following the Apollo result last week. However a recent listening to One Up On Wallstreet (Peter Lynch) made me aware of the “Monday” effect for small caps that “retail investors” dabble in. Namely they mostly do their research on the weekend and put in a buy order on Monday. So Mondays are usually one of or the best day for a small cap – CHL exibits this effect. So I held my order at a lower price that triggered this morning.
We will see how things go from here – worst case this is a decent into a hell of downgrades from European issues, but they are well cashed to endure some pain. Best case, it returns to growth and it’s operating leverage kicks off.
Disc: I now own in RL
Rambling Overview thesis for CHL
Wanted to share my thinking while it's price is down and I've been topping up (and likely jinx it for further falls...), so apologies in advance if this is a little incoherent, especially if you don't already know the business - DYOR.
Share Price
As mentioned here by @JPPicard and @Rocket6 , CHL share price is down a lot recently – likely because of Tourism Holding downgrade (and selling it’s position in CHL).
However, price was already drifting before that, likely because it is currently in integration (no longer growth) phase.
Mr Market is potentially Short Term thinking as PaulCamper acquisition won't grow this year as the focus is (wisely I believe) on consolidation and integration - owner operator mindset.
It's good to see Mgmt behaving like the owner operators that they are rather than just endlessly chasing growth by acquisition (M&A is probably off the table for them until share price recovers anyway).
Cash vs Profit
Also the market possibly sees CHL as endlessly loss making when they actually just turned Op CF breakeven for > 4 consecutive quarters.
As a result, CHL no longer need to report 4C’s because, even through they are still loss making, their Negative Working Capital Cycle means they are Op & FCF positive.
I expect them to remain approximately FCF break even as they grow fast from a low base so shouldn't need capital except for acquisitions.
Business Dev
Improved insurance product coming online could be a boon for them - market perhaps doesn't understand this?
Insurance product and marketing around this COULD drive more vans onto the platform - a critical driver of growth.
European take rate to push up in line with ANZ market (this may take time and will likely be a delicate dance).
Risks
M&A is a big risk here – acquisitions are their source of high top line growth and getting to scale – so paying too much or integration issues are a definite risk to long term value creation & capture.
Tent business acquisition seems odd and potentially a source of risk if mgmt deviate focus from their core offering.
CEO has talked about this in the past - that the platform is agnostic and could be used for other things.
Hopefully the Insurance add on will embed their specialisation on the platform.
However, the insurance play may not work out as well as expected, so this should get chalked up in the risk column too.
Cosy lives
The consumer is under pressure and likely to stay that way while fiscal and monetary policies are pulling in different directions. To the extent that holidays are discretionary this will likely have an impact on tourism. We're seeing this with Apollo's recent downgrade and other tourism stocks on the slide - EXP.
However, if people need a holiday / mental health break it might not be so discretionary after all (mandatory leave requirements / annual leave accruing on balance sheets help here too) and looking for cheaper alternatives to hotels or Airbnb might drive holiday makers to vans. Not really a lipstick effect, more like the reason fast food / discount retailers can do better in a downturn.
Cost of living pressures could also be a boon if squeezed owners put their vans on the platform rather than selling them. That is a key constraint to growth - getting the number of platform assets up from 2% to something much higher.
I.e. sharing economy to pick up in leaner times. Think Car Next Door (now Uber), Airbnb out your holiday home, also a lot of households took in borders during the great depression (antiquated and extreme but psychologically relevant analogue?)
M&A target?
M&A potential from the other side - if CHL are seen as a potential competitor to Airbnb - like Car Next Door was to Uber (and now owned by Uber), Airbnb might just buy them and run stand alone / as a data gatherer / cross promoter / adjacency?
Founders are now diluted due to raises to fund acquisition, so will have limited guard against a hostile takeover.
Apollo divesting adds to takeover potential.
Disc: Held.
The healthy conversation on Pointerra got me thinking of other companies in the pain cave.
One such contender is Camplify, who just hit a new 52-week low today. The share price is down about 50% from its high in February.
The interesting thing here is that there’s really been no news flow in the last month when the bulk of the pain happened.
- The descending trajectory began when THL announced they were selling out. That whole blunder never made any sense to me. The CEO’s comments are outright strange: “Just over a year on from the merger with Apollo Tourism & Leisure we have reviewed our position on our Camplify shareholding and have decided to divest, given our focus on return on funds employed at THL and the fact that the shareholding is not currently delivering a return on funds.” What company invests in another company hoping for a return in 1 year? Are THL turning themselves into a fundie with a 12-month price target? The only true reason I can see them selling out is that they actually needed the cash, and were uncomfortable to say it directly.
- And speaking of the devil, just today THL goes on a trading halt, suggesting, “THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.” Well, that’s a nice punch in the stomach for holders.
- It’s no surprise to me to think that investors are looking at THL as a proxy for what one could expect for Camplify. But the problem with doing this is that we have fundamentally two very different business models. One (THL) that’s extremely capital demanding. If you’re running a fleet you have to put up cash first to buy the thing and get that money back slowly over the years. If you’re Camplify, then you have to put out cash to get a hirer on to your platform. That’s money nonetheless but it’s much less of it, for a very quick payback too.
- Of course, Camplify is far from perfect. It’s continuing its journey to making acquisitions, and entering a questionable realm. The rent-a-tent acquisition to me is very questionable. They need to prove out this works very tangibly. Otherwise, I’ll keep thinking; why in hell did you do this?
- Also, investors are now hungry for free cash flow companies. Camplify has been dancing around this topic for a while, suggesting the mid-term goal would be to get there. But the cash hasn’t necessarily been gushing it just yet, and investors that have held it for 3 years (like me) may have lost patience now. Especially in a market where we’re seeing a lot of companies start to move.
-A marketplace company trading at less than 2x EV / Revenue could be an opportunity. Could be. The high take rate of Camplify should lead to very healthy margins. So there’s an opportunity for the brave investor to me a contrarian here and achieve a good outcome. For now, I’m not that brave investors, but I might become if this continues.
In the end, I don’t really have a point to make for writing this. I’m really just processing my thoughts out loud here. Part of the events unfolding with Camplify make me think back to @Wini’s point about "When share price drives the narrative”. I was lucky enough to have lunch with Luke when he was thinking about writing of this topic, and this point resonated with me deeply, just like many of the other points he made that day. A smart guy he is.
@Rapstar did a good summary already. Publishing my rough notes as well.
Camplify got punched in the stomach today, with the stock ending down 16%.
That’s on the back of revenue growth 95%, and a loss that’s slightly improve by 10% to $2.9M.
Presumably, investors didn’t even look at the revenue growth number, went straight to the loss, and a the visceral reaction that unfolded caused an immediate trigger of the sell button.
The growth needs to be put in context of Paul Camper’s acquisition, which has management pointed out, didn’t account for the whole period of the half year.
If we want to be conservative, we can divide the growth by the share count increase to get to a growth per share number of 53%, I find that excellent. (@Rapstar how did you get to your 37% number?)
Growth per share of 53% with negative margins of 12% lands cleanly at 41% which beats my desired Rule of 40.
If your thesis was predicated on a profit inflection point, I understand your dissatisfaction and the rationale for selling.
My thesis revolves around a robust take rate indicating future healthy margins, sustained global scalability suggested by the growth rate, ample remaining market share to capture, all supported by strong execution. I remain confident in holding and affirming the trajectory of my thesis.
Camplify reported H1 results for H1 2024:
Justin refused to provide guidance or indications of how the business is travelling in the seasonally busy season. It appears camper / owners on the network are the constraint for growth....the market didn't like the lack of guidance.
DISC: HELD
Hi @Strawman
any chance of reaching out to camplify and having them talk to members?
business model is one of interest and if they execute which so far they have been it could be a big winner. They are also doing insurance on hired camper vans now which makes it more interesting to me.
thanks in advance
disc: hold a very small position IRL
I completed a DCF for Camplify due to my ongoing interest in the business.
Some relevant points to make:
Previous revenues:
Previous free cash flows (FCF):
This is a capital light business, so cash flows are a good way to measure Camplify's success over the coming years. For the purpose of the DCF, I am forecasting FCF of 3m in FY24, 5.5m in FY25 and 8m in FY26.
Using a discount rate of 10%, I reach a company value of 131m and a valuation of $1.85. I think this is one of the higher-quality micro caps on the market with a sub 300m market cap so I think this deserves to trade at a slight premium compared to its peers.
Since they report quarterly and consistently provide metrics, Camplify's full-year results didn't come as a surprise. I thought they were very strong.
In my article for a rich life I explain how I get to organic growth estimates of 75%, that’s very strong given the bottom line improved as well.
Thesis remains on track.
In the next year I’ll look out for:
Ref:
https://www.goforgrowth.co/p/10-growers-in-fy23-part-1
Headlines from CHL:
Looks like a good result. Revenue is up, PaulCamper (which covers the EU markets) not included in PCP comparisons due to it being recently acquired.
> Note PaulCamper numbers are not displayed here, as the business was acquired in December of FY23, and pcp results are not able to be shared for the FY22 vs FY23 period.
Wonder why?
FY23 revenue of $38.2M, up from $16M in FY22 is impressive, but includes some acquisitions. But even if we just look at revenue in Australia that's up 70%.
Number of hirers on the platform is way up, too, to 500k. This included acquisitions but growing this number should mean increased marketing efficiency for online advertising spend, I think?
NZ and Spain all growing well. EU flat, but seems like focus has been on integrating platform which is well underway.
Couple of notes from the earnings call:
The Myway insurance rollout was a key talking point. Seems good opportunity to increase revenue and margin per hire.
I thought Camplify's results today were very strong.
They always lead with their GTV growth (109.87%), but I think that metric is too messy and I much prefer their revenue growth which came in at 63.8% versus Q2 FY22.
Now, this does take into account 1 month of contribution from Paul Camper, so I could do some back of the napkin map to pull out the organic growth, but I reckon the growth of their Australian business serves as a good proxy for that. And the growth there was 52.3% (pcp Q2 FY22). So we can see from this that the growth slowed down a little. Still, that level of growth is quite an achievement.
The next quarter will be a full contribution quarter from Paul Camper, which will hurt their take-rate, but improve revenue. Very keen to see what comes of that, also very keen to see the full story when they report on the half-yearly in a few weeks.
CEO Justin Hales on the Planet MicroCap podcast
https://open.spotify.com/episode/58juH8ncHCQaylkRapKqxL?si=eqveyX9pRQCbGVTtZr0rRw
Non-executive director Andrew McEvoy made a decent sized on market purchase of $100,000 worth of shares last week.
Disc: not held
Re-posting Claude's article from A Rich Life here. Some good points made.
https://arichlife.com.au/camplify-asx-chl-h1-fy-2022-results-show-decent-growth-but-im-disappointed/
Reducing the multiple of revenue applied to valuation due to slower rate of growth half to half of 30% and the increase in expenditure. However, if they can return to a higher growth rate post lockdown era this will prove to be cheap and the multiple will come down fast. TTM (2H21 + 1H22) rev of $11.99m x 5 = ~$60m With 38.76m shares outstanding, thats a SP of $1.54
CHL announced half yearly results. See here. Last half was severely covid affected with travel restrictions in Australia. Company headlines figures of 109% revenue growth to $6.782m for the half compared to PCP. However, it is only approx. 30% increase half on half with 2nd half of FY21, which posted $5.21m. I still think this is impressive to grow 30% in a impacted half.
Im very interested to see how this half compares considering Australia now has international borders open, whether that is a positive for the company, or whether domestic hirers will go down as people look to holiday overseas. Coming into European Spring and Summer should be a positive for their UK and Spanish operations which seem to be growing rapidly - admittedly off a tiny base.
On the negative side, expenses blew out dramatically for the half to $10m. I do understand this is a land grab in the early stages of company growth, but still not great. Also i still have concerns about their product review ratings particularly on Google and productreview.com.au sitting at 2.5 to 2.7 stars respectively. I know the CEO stated they use trust pilot, but the first thing you see when you google "Camplify" is the google rating and when you google "Camplify review" is the product review rating. I feel like this is a big issue, and would detract many people using the platform. They didnt even mention reviews in their presentation. Its all well and good to grow, but it would be much easier to grow if people are loving the product and giving great reviews.
Very interesting business in a sector where the winner takes the most. Who's second to Uber and AirBnB? You know there are competitors, but I can't name them without looking it up. That is enough to get my interest in a growing global sector.
I'm kicking myself I didn't jump in earlier becuase of caution over EU growth, but I'm waiting for a buying opportuity with market volatility.
Disc: Not held. Yet.
Important for any investors interested in Camplify as an investment to know that 75% of all shares are held in escrow, and cannot be traded until September 2022 (2 weeks after FY2022 reporting date).
It may pay to be patient, as there may be some selling pressure when shares come out of escrow if management wish to upgrade their RVs.
Key takeaways from todays results and earnings call:
DISC - I HOLD.
Nothing more than an observation I noticed yesterday. One of my enjoyments is getting to the beach at any moment I possibly can. I noticed quite a few vans that appeared rented from camplify. I'm not over how the business works but just saw a number of vans with camplify stickers with QR codes stuck on to the back of the van.
I live in WA so the strict border measures would have a positive impact on the business which can be seen in the share price chart. Also noticed a lot of people wanting to get out of the city and travel into nature which would further benefit Camplify.
DISC: I do not hold
dumb bunny going to rhyme again,
because you don't see it yet my friend,
but all i do is track down trends
and trust me mate the zeitgeist bends;
to #vanlife, which is covid safer
than air travel which is in disfavor
Acorn Capital have sold 15-20% of their position. They may be doing this because:
1) $CHL became too large a position size in their portfolio, and they have trimmed for risk management purposes.
2) They think $CHL is overvalued.
DISC - I HOLD......
Gladys has announced rather agressive re-opening plans, INCLUDING CAMPING GROUNDS.
These areas are the regions with the most Camplify RVs. Will be interesting to see if a spike in bookings is evident in Q1 4C update.
DISC - HELD.
This may seem like a silly question.
Car Sales (CAR) Sells and reviews Cars, Boats, Bikes, Tyres, Construction equipment and Farm Machinery.
Is it possible that with a market Cap of $48 Million they could see Camplify as a possible acquisition in the future, depending on how they perform?
At some point surely Camplify will bolt on a sales element to their site, and CAR are always looking for growth stratergies.
Nothing more than a random thought, I dont buy companies hoping for takeovers.
DISC - I dont own at this time.
Shoutout to @TEPCapital straw of Appen vs Domain, which i thought was great.
I thought Id look at two gig economy companies both recently listed Airtasker (ART) vs Camplify (CHL).
Below are the financial profiles of the two listed gig economy / platform companies. As of writing ART is valued at $409m AUD and Camplify is valued at $37m. These companies are similar models both operating in the gig economy space, albeit for different services. Neither of the companies have a monopoly in their space with plenty of competitors. Both are at early stages of their growth stories and listed entity life. Below are the financial profiles of both companies, and the multiples for both are so different, it makes no sense.
Does Airtasker deserve to be trading at $409m vs Camplify at $37m. Maybe Airtasker is way over priced? Or Camplify is way under priced? Its probably somewhere in the middle. If CHL was to be awarded the same P/S multiple it would be trading at $126m MC and current shareholders would more than triple their money. Ignoring the metrics both businesses have high potential, but both are in my view as risky as each other.
I agree with TEPCapital, sometimes the market is crazy.
Vandelay posted up some quite valid concerns regarding van owner and customer feedback. It is interesting to note Camplify are investing heavily in their Sales and customer success. sevemn new positions in totla ar eadvertised, including:
Customer success roles - 4 roles, including a manager, with roles of onboarding new RV owners...
Insurance resolution officer - To assist owners manage insurance claims.
So it looks like Camplify are growing strongly, and working hard to address the issues Vandelay has raised........
DISC - I HOLD
key takeaways:
1) Q4 FY21 Gross Trasnaction Volume (GTV) of $9.6M for Q4, up 163% on PCP.
2) GTV for year: $31.5-$31.8 million ($27.8 million Prospectus guidance).
3) Unaudited net revenue of $7.1-$8.2 M ($6.7 M forecast in Prospectus).
4) EU Market GTV up 199% for the year.
5) ANZ Market GTV up 158% for the year.
6) Q4 GTV growth rates of 629% on lockdown affected Q4 2020. Augurs well for strong momentum into Q1 2021.
7) Operational costs below Prsopectus forecast.
8) NZ market grew GTV by 485% on pcp, with Q4 growth of 2627% on PCP (obviously off a low base). Note: this result was domestically driven, with strong tailwinds as NZ opens up on 2022 / 2023.
9) Both RV fleet and customer additions grew by 14% as at June 30, since Propsectus publication (May).
1) $21 Million in the bank - planty of funding for a business already operating close to breakeven point.
DISC - I HOLD.
Following on from my #bearcase straw yesterday regarding reviews. I decided to send them to the investor relations email. I recieved a response from the CEO/Founder this morning. His responses are in Bold. See below:-
Thanks for your email. Happy to answer your questions. Just for my background are you a current investor or prospective investor?
Below are the answers to your questions;
My take - He was a little bit dismissive for some of the issues, but seems like they are aware of most and trying to improve. Id still like to see the reviews improve overall even if it is a small number. For a business like this people genuinely take the reviews & ratings seriously when considering whether to use a service - i know that i do anyway.
I think Camplify is an awesome concept and the business idea has merit. Think of AirBNB for campervans.
I bought an initial small starter position. But doing my due dilligence, i found some concerns regarding Ratings and Reviews on sites like Google & Product Review.
Currently Camplify have a 3.1 star review on ProductReview & a 3.5 star review on Google. These are based off small sample sizes of 11 reviews and 123 reviews respectively.
The App is currently 2.5 stars on Google Play and 4.1 stars on Apple App store. Based off 19 and 12 votes respectively.
Reading through a bunch of reviews, it appears the main points of concern from Van owners are:-
Main points of concern from users:-
My perspective from the above, seems like they are either understaffed or have poor systems in place to deal with complaints and damages.
Id like to see the ratings improve and percentage of similar complaints diminish before investing anymore. Hopefully management have a plan to tackle these issues.