Thanks @lyndonator. I think $ARX products are targeted on the lower two layers.

oh sorry @mikebrisy -- I only saw your post now. I did put what you had in Slido to Brian, but not sure he went into the detail you might have liked.

I put this to him at around the 22 minute mark.

Based on the transcript, Brian said the following:

Myriad:

- Used for soft tissue reconstruction, focused on lower limb reconstruction from diabetic foot ulcers, venous ulcers, and limb salvage procedures.

- Competes against placental tissue and animal-based xenografts. 

- Advantages: faster tissue formation, fewer complications, less frequent applications compared to standard of care.

- Also used in trauma cases like vehicle accidents, gunshot wounds, stabbings with large tissue loss (24:00). Advantages over negative pressure wound therapy alone.

Symphony: 

- For diabetic and venous ulcers in the rapid healing stage. Combines Aroa ECM and hyaluronic acid.

- Currently running a randomized controlled trial vs standard of care, with interim results expected end of this year.

OviTex (via partner TELA Bio):

- Used in complex ventral hernia repair, often with infected or complicated cases.

- Prospective studies show very low complication rates (<3%) compared to 10-30% typically seen with standard of care.

OviTex PRS (via TELA Bio): 

- For breast reconstruction post-mastectomy. 

- Rapidly develops into new tissue to support reconstructive procedures.

In summary, the key advantages across Aroa's products compared to standard of care are faster tissue formation and healing, lower complication rates, and fewer applications required. Clinical evidence is being built to support these claims.

I'll post a full summary as a separate Straw.

@Strawman thanks Andrew. He gave a pretty good response, which I haven’t heard him give so comprehensively before.

Just listened to the presentation and probably will need to go back over it in future.

I think a major difference between $ARX and $PNV is that the former’s starting point is more complex wounds, where they have started with multiple products targeting different indications, whereas $PNV started in burns and have been progressively migrating into more complex wounds, driven by the surgeons, but with essentially a single product (not much difference between BTM and MTX).

One thing I can’t reconcile between what David says and what Brian says, is that Brian says synthetics tend not to be used on complex wounds like venous leg ulcers and limb trauma, whereas DW has said they are getting into that (and has circulated journal papers.) I reconcile the statements by observing that both have a low market share in these areas and that are probably both being truthful from their perspectives. The competition and comparative advantages won’t become clear until either 1) we see some properly designed head-to-head trials and/or 2) volumes grow to the point that the competitive dynamic becomes more apparent.

On valuation, while $ARX is cheaper on some multiples for FY24, it’s significantly lower revenue growth makes it harder to project forward with any confidence. But if what Brian has said is true (multiple elements coming together) then you’d expect to see revenue growth at least be maintained, if not accelerate.

So, while I can’t see the case to invest today, it remains one to keep a close eye on.

Disc. Not held. $PNV held in RL and SM

Cash balance down from 44m to 29m and expenses up 31% from 45m to 59m. Revenue expected to grow from 69m to 80-87m.

Mmm - I like the presentation but I just can’t see how they are going to be cash flow positive or profitable anytime soon. One needs to see those expenses stabilise but they are now investing into increasing production from 150 to 200m.

Normalised for this and normalised for that. I guess if we all normalised for this and that no one would have a home loan debt.

https://data-api.marketindex.com.au/api/v1/announcements/XASX:ARX:2A1524278/pdf/inline/fy24-appendix-4e-and-full-year-results?_gl=1*aw8njb*_ga*MTc1NDk2MjEyNy4xNzE3NDcyOTQ1*_ga_R504V9JPBH*MTcxNzQ3Mjk0NS4xLjEuMTcxNzUwMTMyNy40My4wLjA.