Another capital raise!! lol

I bloody hope not, It will be something amazing for sure, I sold some yesterday, the @Strawman affect.

Not mind blowing

Anthony Albanese did a tour of the Gladstone Alpha HPA facility and covered by the ABC which I posted earlier.

After hitting monthly highs, since then A4N has done a capital raise and is back below $1bn.

If a government official visit is not a top then don't know what is?

Maybe it won't happen here as you can't predict anything these days. And fundamentally A4N does not have offtakes from potential customers and real revenue won't happen till 2027 when the bigger facility is up and running..

It was certainly the top for Tritium @edgescape! ;)

Just checking their current price and oh my word do I feel utterly stupid now. This in contrast to how smug I felt when I hit the sell button around $0.80 when I though the share price was getting out of control and I can just buy back in at the pull back. I made a fantastic profit in quite a quick amount of time but another reminder, for the umpteenth time, that there is nothing wrong in just letting winners run...

If it makes you feel any better, I am more stupid: I didn’t buy at 0.39 as it was 2c higher than my ideal buy price

☹️

I know shares seem elevated, but you can all sleep more soundly knowing that shares are definitely going a lot higher.

How do I know? I just sold down a portion of my holding :)

I've long argued that over thinking valuation on high-growth stocks with lots of sales traction and a large market opportunity can often lead to a lot of regret... but shares are a good 45% over my valuation and have grown to a chunky weighting in the portfolio. Also, I'd like to free up some cash for other opportunities.

I'll still retain a decent exposure, but it's time for me to take some off the table.

Haha, no guts no glory right @NewyRookie

As long as the madness keeps going until 1 July, I'll be happy ... gotta blow some froth off the top of this one.

The only thing pumping harder in my portfolio this FY has been Solana (and that's probably got Sam Bankman-Fried trading it from his cell) at 703% growth. This one at 460% growth is doubling NVIDIA which is performing woefully at a mere 212%.

At least it makes up for Tritium which is down 99.42% and unfortunately I can't close the position to take the tax loss this FY because nothing conclusive from the administrator yet. Other rubbish counterbalancing it in my portfolio includes RFT, 3DP and Strandline (also with trading suspended so can't take the tax loss).

DISC: Held in SM and way too much IRL

@Chagsy if you want stupidity stories ... I unloaded a significant parcel of shares from my SMSF at 32c with intention to buy them back in family trust (my logic was that they would be a capital growth stock and would take a few years to get to my then target of $1 and I needed room in my SMSF for dividend stocks) ... share price never came back and I never bought them back ... costly mistake.

So I've already got my big regret story from this one (but I'm sure whatever the next decision with this and every other stock in my portfolio, I'll probably also regret with 20:20 hindsight) ... could have bought more, should have sold etc.

That is impressive @Chagsy

I did take the opportunity to buy Droneshield at the bargain basement price of 26 cents around 18 months ago. The stock immediately took off, nudging highs over 40 cents. My genius knew no limits!

But I wasn't a fan of some of the pumpy announcements that preceded the spike and sold for 36 cents about 6 weeks after buying. Still, a 38% return is pretty good, isn't it? And with my recently honed stock picking mastery I was pretty sure I could annualise it and easily expect 300%+ pa returns going forwards. I was even more confident the market would come to fear my name when Droneshield fell back to around 20 cents not long after. I didn't take the chance to buy back in at those levels, so it is with some surprise that I now see the price at $1.46! What happened to my genius? The market should be throwing rose petals at my feet and instead it mocks me.

The thing is I'm not sure I'd buy back in if it fell back to 20 cents. I'm not sure how to value a company whose only management incentive is revenue growth (they don't even have to be cash receipts). With $56m in the bank, they could very well get to the $200m revenue target (organically or otherwise), see management receive their full incentive and be a basket case that's still burning cash. In fact, that's the smart play by them. If they haven't burnt through the cash pile, if they haven't explored every dodgy (but revenue accretive) acquisition, if they haven't worked every accounting trick in the book to land an on paper $200m revenue number in the next four years, then what are they doing? If I had a bit more faith in management maybe I'd be a little more inclined to think they could also work in the interest of shareholders while achieving the Board's objective, but they've played funny buggers just a few times too many for me to put it off to chance.

The $200m revenue target looks like a blatant M&A play to me. That's fine if that's how you invest, but it's not me.

I have some rose petals @Noddy74, and would be happy to scatter them everywhere you walk, as long as its right next to me and you give me free beer.

I hadn't quite realised just how bitter and cynical you had become. These are fine people protecting the free world from the scourge of neo-Imperialist expansionist empires. It is more a calling than a job.

Or not.

I totally agree with the misalignment of incentives, the extraordinary expansion in shares on issue and the psychosocial hype. But there probably is something underlying all of this. How much it is worth is beyond my ken and am happy I don't have the dilemma of wondering if I should sell now or hope for an ever increasing valuation.

Who am I kidding, I would LOVE to have that problem !

Anyhoo, back to spreadsheets of quality companies' ROIC vs WACC ...... it's non-stop giggles this investing lark

Speaking of which, weren't you in Lark whisky? whatever happened to that?

@Chagsy you had me at "beer". I'd even forego the rose petals. It sounds like a lark.

Speaking of Lark, I don't think that one is me...[checks notes]...nope, never put money in that one - other than for imbibement. Looked at it once or twice but never owned it. I've owned plenty of other duds though. In fact, I went through a period where I was something of a connoisseur of such story stocks.

I did it - sold a third of my Droneshield stake in both IRL and SM.

I could argue this was purely for "portfolio balance" reasons - it was really because you all got in my head.

Well, that, and Vlad selling ALL of his shares (he still has 15m options though). The nagging thought of why was persistent - I get there are probably limited timeframes in which he could sell, years of working as the CEO at a lower than market pay, and the desire to de-risk and not have all your livelihood in one basket. But selling EVERYTHING he could just nagged at me.

Selling 1/3 meant I got my initial investment back + a little and leaves me with enough that if it continues to shoot the lights out I'll still do well. I'd prefer to just hold but I can't say I have the conviction to do so. Instead have used a regret minimisation approach, but have to say it feels weak.

Held (but a bit less): IRL and SM

Sold out completely today at 1.54, looks a bit frothy at ~80 times earnings. Hopefully don't live to regret it

So for arguments sake, what’s the real risk with a person hanging on to 100% of their drone shield holding and just selling if it drops 12% or something.

Seems like a reasonable amount to sacrifice to keep a crack at this momentum continuing….

(it’s effectively what I’m doing….i don’t want to underestimate the hot money / hype effect).

I’m lucky at the moment as I have the free time to keep a pretty close eye on it.

The problem is when the herd turns it bolts fast!

I reckon this situation is the one and only time to use a stop-loss. You decide what the minimum share price you would want to cash out at (eg 15% below the current share price) and each day you keep ratcheting up your stop-loss so it stays at the same percentage below the current share price. Then you keep riding the euphoria until its turns. The problem of course this is a very active stragegy. But that's what most of us are doing here......

you know I’m effectively doing a trailing stop loss strategy in my head.

i once had a trailing stop loss order setup on the nabtrade platform and it inexplicably failed to execute and errored out ,even though it was set perfectly.

may as well just have an alert set for the drop and do the sell manually:…you’re right, it will happen quickly if it does.

im still long term on it though and will buy back in at a lower price…which I’ve already done once.

I guess one point is that it might drop 10% and then shoot up 100%.

other issue is it might fall 30% in a session…

All valid points @GazD .

I would only use a stop-loss if I thought the stock was over priced AND I wanted to exit.

Personally I sold out of DRO at about $1.10 because I thought the stock was over valued there. Obviously too soon in hindsight. Now I wish I had used the stop-loss strategy I described above.

Once again I underestimated how irrational the market can be (or how wrong I can be!).

Just took a little of the top to add to my IRL Audinate and Stealth holding.

The buy/sell side on Commsec is certainly narrowing.

Still Hold IRL & SM

@topowl for me the answer to this question is more a philosophical one - having a stop loss crosses the divide from investor into trader.

And the next thing you know I'd be shorting double leveraged puts on gold futures.

Also, at my core, don't like the idea of the letting the market make my decisions for me.

But it is definitely each to their own, there are infinitely many ways to do this and you have to tread your path. My aim is to spend most of my time looking/analysing what to buy not deliberating over when/how to sell - though I am far from there yet.

Great points @lyndonator.

How you want to spend your time is a really good question.

Overall I'm not a trader and am long-term on my picks until thesis's are busted....

But once in a while, these hype-share opportunities come along, and I think there's a lot to be said for not selling too soon just because you think something is way over valuation.

Who knows how high this will go, I don't..... but in the short term, until I have a better opportunity, I'm going to ride along with my hands firmly on the eject handle.

Doesn't bother my sleep-at-night factor too much (for the moment).

....However exactly as you said, if you don't want to spend time deliberating on when/how to sell, I completely agree....it gets old pretty quickly.

Wise words.

Personally I think selling is as important as the buying and more difficult in my opinion. Yes buy and hold forever is the ideal but it does not always work out this way for me. I may neeed to sell because maybe I made a mistake or the thesis has changed, perhaps I see a better opportunity elsewhere or the stock is significantly overvalued. Maybe I just need the money.

If I want to sell because I believe a stock is over valued then using a stop loss may assist me to get the best possible selling price in this specific situation. It is a simply tool - not a label.

Yes @Shapeshifter I think what many of us holders of droneshield are trying to work out is 1) is this stock overvalued? With such a run up the natural inclination is to assume yes but the recent growth and potential for ongoing growth does justify a high PE in my opinion. Of course perhaps this is unjustified extrapolation in which case it’s probably overvalued.

As much as it’s a stock with a good proposition and clearly a very good story it doesn’t have the obvious quality of a ‘hold forever’ stock like (in retrospect) promedicus.

But… could it be higher quality than we realise? If it really ends up 50% software revenue? If it maintains a position as a market leader in anti drone technology? If regulatory tailwinds provide support for civilian use eg airports, jails etc … it’s all probabilistic but I wouldn’t sell down completely whilst I maintain some belief that this is a stock that could go on to bigger and better things. Equally I am not so convinced that I haven’t taken some off the table already given the implied future performance in the SP… I don’t have the confidence/arrogance to hold 100% of my position but neither am I prepared to sell down completely just because it’s run!