Forum Topics DRO DRO Bear Case - Drone Guns

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

I’m getting a bit bearish over the amount of revenue being captured by DRO for the Drone Guns (https://www.droneshield.com/c-uas-products/dronegun-mk4). Looks like > 50% of total revenue from the latest investor presentation


6556667d6e7b97aa73808f77d28fe1f833cc33.png


From what I can understand, these guns effectively work to interfere with the signal between the Drone and its operator making it either land safely or better still return to its operator (so you can then counter with your own killer drone or artillery strike). Eg. https://forum.dji.com/thread-281795-1-1.html

The DRO guns are basically little portable/personal versions of the Russian Krasukha Electronic Warfare trucks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krasukha which disrupt all manner of communications including GPS signals. https://www.popsci.com/technology/russian-electronic-warfare-equipment-ukraine/ 

Where I am a bit bearish about the future efficacy of these guns is where the Drones start to adopt some AI (as is already happening in the Ukraine conflict) effectively allowing them a level of autonomy if they are subjected to electronic warfare such as the DroneShield DroneGun. Effectively the AI might allow them to continue flying to a target, identify a target (such as a the nearest tank with a Z on the side) and kamikaze into it. Alternatively, cheap drones working in a swarm may also be able to overwhelm the effectiveness of drone guns.

Here's a smattering of articles on the topic:

  • https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/01/energy/ukrainian-drones-disrupting-russian-energy-industry-intl-cmd/index.html
  • https://www.livescience.com/technology/engineering/ai-drone-that-could-hunt-and-kill-people-built-in-just-hours-by-scientist-for-a-game
  • https://consortiq.com/uas-resources/drone-ai-technology-how-it-works-why-it-matters
  • https://shield.ai/
  • https://www.dji.com/au/ai-module -
  • https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/12/13/industry-perspective-autonomous-swarm-drones-new-face-of--warfare
  • https://mwi.westpoint.edu/swarm-clouds-on-the-horizon-exploring-the-future-of-drone-swarm-proliferation/
  • https://www.axios.com/2024/03/15/drone-swarms-ai-military-war


Has anyone else looked into this in their investment thesis?

Or do you think the bigger risk at the moment is the amount of hype on the DRO share price?


DISC: Held IRL and SM


McLovin
a month ago

I sometimes stay awake at night thinking that perhaps I missed the boat here and considered an investment at 30 cents, but never pulled the trigger. But every time I look into the company, I can't but help that the Oleg and the board seem to be releasing information in ways that are designed to pump up the stock price to take "quick wins". I know this is not new news, but releasing information and classifying it as "Market Sensitive" to creative a positive sentiment with investors and potential investors is something that perhaps makes me a jaded, conservative and washed up investor which I simply can't look past ;-)

For those who invested, how did you look past this, and was your plan short term or long term? I'm genuinely curious.


20

NewbieHK
a month ago

@McLovin good question and one I have asked myself many times for different stocks. I have finally made peace with that and understand that in a given year a number of opportunities will present themselves. So basically I am more patient and able to move on from stocks that I believe I have missed the run and simply added them to my watch list for potential future entry opportunities.

In terms of looking past the selling by Oleg I was satisfied with his response to @strawman when he said he hadn’t taken a salary for a decade or a long time (from memory I think it was something like this) and was basically rewarding himself for what the company had achieved. I thought this was a fair response and reconciled this against other examples such as Kogan’s owner Ruslan capitalising on the companies growth.

When, you look back you see Oleg, by selling has cut himself short 40-50%. Sure he has new options but, nether-the-less the shares he sold, he did so at a far lower prices.

So I have blocked out the noise (ie the so called talk that he is pumping up the price) and tried to focus on what the company is actually saying and the opportunity in the space they are operating at an opportune time for their product. The forward revenue targets, the wars (unfortunate), the market opportunity, the agreements with NATO, Five eyes and the Aus and US government allowed me to decide that they really do have a large opportunity for DRO.

Now before it sounds like I am some zen based emotionally balanced investor dialled into just the companies fundamentals I accept that the market today is not like when I first started. There are many many more retail investors a lot who the market offers them an opportunity to rise financially out of the challenges young people are facing. So once the media started getting interested (all media) and young people were talking about being invested I told myself I wasn’t going to miss the next potential Afterpay because of my stubborn Gen X pre-held beliefs of how something should unfold.

I have learnt or come to accept that sometimes you have to run with momentum, exuberance and if we need to use the term “meme stock” then we need to maybe just accept this is a more frequently occurring component of the new investing world.

In regards to holding I have been torn so I sold a 1/3rd at around 91c. Now I will hold the remainder because the volume and support in the price and the revenue targets the company are chasing suggests this could be multiples of its current share price.

So rather than jump on the Oleg is pumping the stock I am trying to remain focused on the revenue targets.

At this stage the growth in revenue from 2022 to 2023 shows DRO is heading in the right direction, so I will monitor closely how 2024 goes.

Now in terms of have you missed the run - maybe, I am not sure but, I am confident that the next Droneshield opportunity is just around the corner when you are member of Strawman.

Note: Tomorrow is another day.

23

McLovin
a month ago

Love it @NewbieHK . I think you have given me the smack on the head that I need, to perhaps be a little less conservative, and believe the media a little less. Boy is it hard to balance those two things though.

12

topowl
a month ago

You know I think the portfolio approach quite obviously helps take the pressure off as well….and the understanding you will be wrong on a few, making sure you can exit without going to zero on that particular pick if it’s thesis busted (perhaps those revenue goals).

I got in at about a 5% weighting on droneshield and was happy to lose a couple of those percentage points if it went bad (and it still could)…

everything in my portfolio has some sort of hairs/problems with it….and often it’s something with management.

i’m just focusing on the sales with this one…

come the new fy year though…..I’d probably expect a it to drop a bit wih some profit taking if there’s no immediate sales announcements….






11

Bradbury
a month ago

Well I have exited most of my position today @McLovin. I agree with your nervousness around the salesmanship and market announcements and have had that concern the whole time I held, however like @NewbieHK said there were some genuine runs on the board which did back up some Oleg's flash and that is what got me through some of the earlier volatility.

I did have a long term goal for the company, based around their targeted projects, which for me the share price is now well and truly accounting for. Yes the YoY growth is still trending well yet from here they still need to grow multiples to meet that. The early growth rate is the easy part. Maybe there is a buy-out on the horizon which continues the run, but I have learnt the hard way (many times over the past few years) in the small cap space valuation should be paid attention to.

12

McLovin
a month ago

@Bradbury Did you ever grow concerned regarding what seemed to be a lack of MOAT? I get the whole NATO approved value prop, but what's stopping someone else from getting the same approvals in time?

11

Bradbury
a month ago

For me being able to determine if their product is legitimately superior is well out of my wheelhouse. My thesis was based around the business delivering on some of the stated goals, and as they grew sales to meet those goals, then there must be some kind of value proposition there.

They now have a big war chest of $160m to go after the next projects in the pipeline, so if they don't start picking up the bigger contracts, then maybe the moat isn't there.

9
topowl
2 months ago

Thanks, everyone for putting up your thoughts!

Appreciated !!

I'm going to hold for the moment, I stop-lossed out completely a couple of months ago to take a bit of profit, then bought back in when it was clear it wasn't falling off a cliff.

So I'm still under 12 months with my current holding...will hold on to them for the moment and see how it goes.

In my head it's a long term hold and I'm not a trader, so I've set my expectations for a bumpy ride.

There's no indication this is another Dubber or anything, so if it falls I'm sure there will be a floor short of zero, but still above my cost base....(I hope...lol)

11
RhinoInvestor
2 months ago

Thanks all for your opinions ...

Bearish Points I've synthesised:

  • @Hackofalltrades High degree of evolution of EWF meaning large amount of R&D spend required. These are called out as risks on Page 16 of the 2023 annual report. Based upon the 4C from Q1 are they actually spending enough on R&D to stay current / ahead of the market
  • 2d86729fc6fec1f83b1e925b590fbdf9392705.png
  • @GazD Desire to get to 50% revenue from software. Currently SaaS revenue 1Q 2024 was 561K (representing a doubling YoY) but thats relatively small percentage compared with the 16.4m overall revenue (which was a 10X growth). I.e. software growth of 2x is currently underperforming HW growth 10x (to get to 50% it needs to be growing faster). Also the express purpose of the two recent capital raises was to build "inventory" ... that's not required for software (we don't even need to burn a CD these days). So presumably more than half of that capital has been raised to stock "guns" which is 60% of their FY23 revenue.
  • @topowl does the US miltiary have to purchase american made? Apparently as part of the AUKUS deal Australia is defined as part of the US domestic ... "In an unprecedented step, Australia will be included in the US Defense Production Act’s definition of domestic source. This means Australian-based businesses will be eligible to receive loans, grants and purchasing contracts direct from the US Government to support priority sectors, such as critical minerals supply chains, guided weapons, and advanced capabilities." https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2023-12-18/us-congress-progresses-aukus


More Bullish Points

  • @NewbieHK Still effective against commercial drones (even though military ones will probably evolve more quickly to make the guns less effective). Although much of the focus seems to be military related to date, DRO does point out quite a large TAM for civilian uses as well (eg. shipping, critical infrastructure, correctional facilities, stadiums, airports etc.) where the drones are more commercial nuisance rather than MilSpec with grenades strapped to them. I assume that things like this fixed infrastructure will be more likely to have their revenue in the detect space with maybe less requirement for defeat (i.e. guns). Maybe military is the tip of the spear for early revenue (on page 9 of the latest investor presentation they note >75% of revenue from defence) and civilian is the long tail of growth. They also note that fixed site revenue is only 5% in 2023 but likely to rise.
  • a142b0525fe3a39fe073cd7d5ac7541f825e28.png


Digging into this, maybe I should hit Oleg up for a VP of Commercial Sales role since I'm not a former Navy Seal or military veteran and am too skinny to look cool in fatigues, also the organisation doesn't really seem to be very focussed on the civilian market at the moment.

DISC: Held IRL and SM (but nervous as the position has got pretty big)

18
Hackofalltrades
2 months ago

I'm not sure exactly how this applies to Droneshield, but I can say that the military podcasts I listen to continually say that the electronic warfare is constantly evolving. A drone will use a frequency, so they will jam it, so they will put the drone on a different frequency, so they'll jam that, so they'll develop an ability for it to switch between multiple frequencies, etc. This is ongoing.


I'm not sure exactly what this means for the company, but I suspect it means a lot of continual development and a very quick obsolescence of products.

15

Saiton
2 months ago

mmm good point.

7