Nice move today, though ideally the volume profile would have been stronger.

It seems to have found some support near its 200DMA, stabilised yesterday, and had a good move up today.

Agree @Solvetheriddle

In the battle between Eli Lilly and Resmed or more broadly GLP-1 drugs versus CPAP it is still very early days.

Eli Lilly (LLY) has a market cap of US$480b and Novo Nordisk (NVO) $US480b.   The Aussie champ, Resmed has a market cap of $US30b.  

The major reported drug side effects of nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, constipation and bouts of stomach pain and the need to address food intake will no doubt be a focus for the drug developers.  LLY and NVO (and others) are not going to give up and they will continue to develop, market and make cheaper the GLP-1 class of drugs.  

Give it five years and it is likely many of the side effect drug issues will be either overcome or at least ameliorated.  The market opportunity is just too big.

Like England there will always be a Resmed.  It just won’t be what it used to be. 

A US broker view--ive bolded the main point imo

To:

Solve the riddle

Wed, 26 June at 3:39 am

ResMed cut at Oppenheimer after Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide sleep apnea data

01:37 PM | Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) | By: Dulan Lokuwithana, SA News Editor

Oppenheimer downgraded respiratory device maker ResMed (NYSE:RMD) to Perform from Outperform on Tuesday, citing an “air pocket” for the stock in the wake of encouraging data for Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) weight loss therapy tirzepatide in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).

The maker of CPAP (continuous positive airway pressure) machines continued to fall for the third straight session on Tuesday after LLY announced detailed results from its Phase 3 SURMOUNT-OSA program in which the GLP-1 receptor agonist reached the main goals with or without PAP therapy.

“This GLP-1 data, in our view, will necessitate a structural shift in patient preferences, referral patterns, and ultimately choice of therapy,” Oppenheimer analyst Suraj Kalia wrote, with a particular emphasis on tirzepatide’s effects on disease resolution.

“Disease remission outcomes in SURMOUNT-OSA have overshadowed mean AHI reductions, which were strong in their own right,” Kalia said, referring to SURMOUNT-OSA’s main goal, measured using the clinical measure called apnea-hypopnea index (AHI).

However, the analyst ruled out near-term effects and argued that it will take until at least H2 2025 for true impacts to materialize, as tirzepatide is still not indicated for OSA.

With the data readout, LLY said Friday it has already submitted regulatory filings with the FDA, seeking a label expansion for the once-weekly injectable, and a decision is expected as early as later this year.  

Not sure if anyone here also have an II subscription, but I found there recent write up quite interesting on this study as well:

"Here's what we found interesting: those on the combination therapy — terzepatide plus CPAP — performed better on every measure than the group using terzepatide alone. This suggests that combining therapies might be the best approach to tackling moderate-to-severe sleep apnea.

While 43% of participants on terzepatide alone reached 'disease resolution' that number was 52% for those using CPAP, too. Put another way, 57% of participants taking terzepatide alone would still require an alternative intervention."

I have a few friends on Ozempic or similar, however the side effects have been so horrific that they regret starting the drugs in the first place. I could see realistically these weight loss drugs eating into ResMed's revenue by perhaps 20%, but I don't think that's a strong enough reason for me to jump ship just yet. I'll be continuing to hold my full position here.