Pinned straw:
Re ShareCafe Webinar ( Droneshield / Pointerra)
To my mind, this exhibited a stark contrast which reinforced how off the mark Ian Olsen is when it comes to Investor communications. Granted, Droneshield presented off the back of a highly succesful year. But there has always been continuity in their messaging, Contract announcements, albeit small from a few years back have materialised as a contract should and their messaging on their pipeline of work, with the exception of the Israeli opportunities, has been fairly accurate. There is enough meat on the bone when it comes to their financial reporting, for investors to measure progress.
By contrast, Ian was his usual self. A previously used presentation, which amounts to a whole of words making up a story about their superiority of offering and throwing around the usual jargon about 6 and 7 figure ARR opportinities, US$ 1 trillion of USA Resiliency spend to serve as a massive tailwind to the Business, like they are sitting in the box seat to reap US$ 100 m in ARR over the coming years. Not a single graph or refence to a financial metric which is current.
There was a question in the Q & A which revolved around two material contracts which are now both dated. It went something like, have you generated any Revenue on the Entergy and /or Amazon contracts during Q4 FY2024. He replied he cannot answer that because he has not released the 4c for the Qtr. I guess that is a consideration. But then one of the next questions asked whether they were still involved in pole analytics, with reference to 4 m poles at whatever price per pole.. This he answered by referring to the Entergy contract awarded in July of last year (same contract referred to in the first question), saying that Entergy have completed their planning and Pointerra now await the capture of data. Means that Revenue for Pointerra could still be anything from 3 to 6 months away. That says 18 months before Revenue earned on a material contract which, by the way, saw the share price spike (from memory) from 6 odd cents to 21 cents in a day before retreating once the market got to see the Q4 FY 2023 Quarterly Report, two or three days later. No wonder so many are sceptical about the price move on Friday.
I am still heavily invested in Pointerra and if it were not for past successes with Industry giants, commensurate product endorsements, a highly appealing gross margin and my own validation of the factors on the program delays, my current frustration would have had me selling down my holding. I did sell 10% of my holding at 6.3 cents on Friday.
Will try to share some more 'relevant' info before the quarterly is released. IMO, it is important to clarify where we are at before speculating on what the future holds. My decision to continue holding was based on trajectory broken but thesis not.Strongly believe the competitor landscape has changed significantly and is likely to attract more and more players with the passage of time.
Apologies for the length of this post. Think I could write a book on Pointerra.
RobW
Investor webinar at the ShareCafe has sparked some solid interest in 3DP, following positive announcements a few weeks ago. Up 20% at one point
Webinar at 12:30 AEST today with invites included in yesterdays announcement.
Price action today looks associated with slide 8: FY25 Outlook... "Ready to capitalise on qualified 7 & 8 figure USD ARR enterprises sales opportunities" a nice teaser.
I can only hope that they actually start delivering on these positive outlooks, it's why I bought back in after the massive drop in price, but I am still down 60% so was way to early getting back in, and that's assuming they end up delivering!
Nice to see some positive price action for a change, though as others have pointed out, this in isolation is far from a game changer.
Hopefully the momentum continues, both share price-wise now that tax loss selling is in the rear-view mirror, and operationally with further contract wins.
A very desperately needed win here. And a decent sized contract too.
If the R&D program is successful, you could reasonably expect to see a lot of high value contracts roll in in rather quick succession. In which case, we'd be off to the races again!
I wouldn't discount the possibility, but these things take time and there are certainly no guarantees.
Fortune could well favour the brave here, but I for one am too gun shy at this point.