thanks @neke86_ i will respectfully disagree!

“imagine taking 5,000 junk drones to a Brisbane barracks and then.. asking them to connect 5,000 grenades to them using chicken-wire..”

that would indeed be quite a thought. But that isn’t what I’m suggesting at all. I’m sure you knew that, it was just a “reductio ad absurdum” to bolster your argument.

Ukraine now has an endogenous drone industry producing low cost FPV drones with advanced capabilities. Here is an article outlining the future role of drones in warfare as seen by those actually using them in the field.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/science-and-technology/2024/02/05/cheap-racing-drones-offer-precision-warfare-at-scale

from The Economist

I have reproduced the most relevant section below.

One capability that drone pilots are keen on is autonomous object recognition, which would allow a drone cut off by jamming to complete the last phase of its attack autonomously. Object recognition is already available on expensive drones, like America’s Switchblade 300, which costs more than $50,000. Russia’s Ovod (Gadfly) FPV supposedly uses a similar AI-based “terminal guidance” system. But drone advocates argue that this too can be done on the cheap. The Ukrainian Scalpel drone, for instance, costs $1,000 and can lock onto a target designated by its pilot. So does the AirUnit, a prototype drone whose final version aims to be cheaper still. A recent FPV video claims to show two Russian Pantsir air-defence systems being destroyed using autonomous guidance.

in the current situation in Ukraine the ability to maintain the rate of production of munitions is paramount. Expensive and complex is out and cheap and quick is in. Plus there is no point spending a couple of million to send a patriot to take out a shaheed.

Small drones are increasingly seen as disposable single use smart artillery shells. And should be priced as such.

Am I wrong in saying that it's pretty clear when it comes to counter-drone products there's no "gorilla in the room", or clear market leader yet.

It makes it pretty hard to invest in when that's unknowable.

It seems the United States especially is still just trialling small numbers of any anti-drone product they can get their hands on.

Let's see who totals up the most sales dockets in time.

I guess that it will be pretty obvious from sales size when the US or someone else commits to a genuinely large order.

There must be huge expectations for Droneshields next set of results to show some exponential sales growth.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the next set of results being quite postive but the market reacts badly as it's expectations are pretty wild now for sales.

I don't underestimate how much a bbq hype share can run, but can it survive the next set of results ?

If there's a drop, I'd probably look at getting back in at a lower price IRL for a small weighting...thinking along the lines that they could still carve out a nice niche as a smaller player.

Is my thinking crazy ?

Note: Slightly Political

Let’s face it western countries in a US alliance will always be behold to US arm manufacturers. There are numerous documentaries on their influence in governments and wars. It’s simply not good politics to not do business. Consequently, we end up paying absurd prices. Australia has a history of over paying for its defence requirements, be it subs, planes or ships. I guess that’s the difference between buying equipment as a deterrent in the hope we never need to use it in defence of the country, so it’s ok if it spends more time under maintenance v the situation Ukraine finds itself where the realities of real conflict mean you do whatever it takes. From what limited reading I have done it seems the Ukrainians have been quite ingenious in their adaptation of technology.

I don’t think it’s crazy. I would wait for a pull back too if I wasn’t in and selling had tax implications.

The myriad of products are tough to get your head around. I guess that’s where something like dedrone has a potential advantage now taken over by axon. With their distribution network within the civilian police network they may have a slight advantage in that setting. Does it make droneshield a take over target?? Probably not at these prices. I wonder if they got approached by axon?

Also out of interest if donald gets in. The defence trade controls amendment in March 2024 should hopefully mean tariffs(between US, AUS,UK) don’t apply if he gets elected. But who knows!! And is a risk in my book still. I think this would be pretty disastrous for droneshield.

I’m currently going through all the darling growth stocks of the ASX and previous hype stocks and looking at what revenue and NPAT they had when they were a market cap of 1.5 billion, just to try and get a sense of where droneshield is on the hype vs realism curve (not a real curve). Eg. Very imprecise I know but would I of bought promedicus when it hit a market cap of 1.6 billion in 2019 with a revenue of 50 million and a NPAT of 20million? Not knowing what it is now? Or waited for a pull back? I know it’s numbers and not narrative here and I’m comparing different industries and time periods which would have different market attitudes. Think I’m going through a justification process to keep holding. But just trying to get an understanding of how the the ASX values these stocks it thinks have lots of growth potential and what is required to keep them going.

held IRL (now too much of my portfolio as haven't trimmed at all from a buy in at 20cents).

I caved… I was looking at it too much and I couldn’t deal with the pressure of it being 55% of my real life portfolio. So sold 40% purely for mental health as I don’t have the cahunas to not give a shit.

its funny that even though I have a long term view on this stock I still can’t stomach it…

You’re not alone.

i caved at 1.50….wish I didn’t.

next time I think I would rather risk the drawback then lose the upside of a hype share going ballistic.

Wow, Droneshield has hit $2.34 and 800% for 1yr price performance.

Lol.

Would love love love to see a study on if there's any relationship between the increasing gap between the rich and poor in this country and hype shares going ballistic????

Bloody speccy biotech Clarity is up 640% over 12 months....and a fair chunk of it's recent increase on no news at all....just the private school old boys lunch crew getting on it in Sydney....

Is momentum trading hype-bbq shares the new black....should we all have our charts out.....or has the price height these hype-machines hit always been so high ???

I'm left scratching my head....

Aiming for a few bbq invites this weekend @topowl I’ll give you the down low later!!

@topowl

Can also imagine what will happen to DRO when there is a change in power in Russia or some peace deal is reached

The news on Telix and Lantheus about the US health pricing is driving the share price on Clarity. Lantheus is also up by more than both even though the products are inferior and also have no therapy in the pipeline yet. As for the investment case for Clarity it will be helpful to get some knowledge on stats theory, hypothesis testing and what pvalues mean which applies to all the other biotechs which btw is used heavily in finance as well for forecasting volatility and price movements. So take that as you will.