Forum Topics BIO BIO Strawman Meeting

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

What an interview - well done @Strawman. Your discussion approach was able to get a lot more insights out of Blair than other interviews out there, and I've gained a step-change in my own understanding. (I think this gives StrawPeople an edge over the market!)

Rather than summarise my key takeaways, because it will rehash much of what I've already written, I want to focus on Blair. But I recommend anyone who's interest has been piqued to watch the FULL interview.

Rarely (if ever in the microcap space) have I come across a CEO with such clarity and range, and internal cohesion in their strategic thinking. I truely rate Blair very highly, and as an example, draw attention to his ability to talk with clarity about 2024, 2025, next five years and next ten years. That's one sign of a great strategic leader. He also now has a cashflow positive business, so its not just a "story". He is the captain of his ship.

I upped my stake this morning in RL to 0.75% (as the market superficially appears to have taken some trading profits on a lower q-on-q receipts). I plan to go higher, but will wait now until I see the FY results and, more importantly, the three-year strategy which he will announce (and which I expect will role out some conservative 3-year targets)

I will place some trades to align Strawman (so please don't all just out and pop the SP before the close!! ;-) )

Very, very impressed.

Disc: Held in RL (0.75%) and SM

mushroompanda
Added 4 months ago

I would also like to commend @Strawman on the great interview. It was great to let the conversation flow and tease out some of the underlying details and how Blair thinks about the business.

I met Blair a couple of years ago following a presentation he made at a small/micro cap conference. It was the final day, he was the final presenter, and if I remember correctly he replaced another company that pulled out. All the interstaters had headed to the airport, and the crowd was only 20% of that of previous days. Blair got the presentation slot for free. His "hustle" around cost control and making sure that every marketing dollar is stretched was evident back then, and again was reinforced in the Strawman meeting.

I didn't end up taking on a position at the time as I believed they needed a deeply discounted capital raise, and would need substantial lifts in like-for-like sales growth to make it a viable business. The company was able to deliver on the latter in spades. The share price has more than 6x since then. Stings just a little bit.

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Chagsy
Added 4 months ago

Agreed @mikebrisy

Impressive.

I have a couple of areas that I am concerned about. It is clear their focus on a limited number of stores is driving significant increases in same store sales (78% from memory).

What remains to be seen is if this continued “education” of sales staff and pharmacists is an ongoing cost, or can be scaled back to allow the sales staff to move on to new stores. I realise they have 60% margins with BAU, perhaps this a true reflection of that cost, but perhaps there has been some tweaking of numbers. My guess is that as soon as the level of “education “ is reduced there will be a commensurate drop in SSS. This will partly be due to staff turnover and partly to it no longer being front of mind in those remaining staff. Sales will reduce, valuable floor/cupboard space will be reassessed and maybe the product gets removed.

The second issue I am concerned about is although this is a “health/pharma” company; their products are likely consumer discretionary in nature for the majority of users. Perhaps akin to a gym membership. $60 per month is a lot. heading into a recession it’s…..well it’s….its still $60 but it’ll seem like a lot more !! I would be cautious about ascribing a defensive nature to the business . All those trained sales staff will become a liability in a downturn, may get laid off, and then new staff will need to be trained and up-skilled when heading into the next phase of increased discretionary spending.

I will probably wait until we can evaluate the business’ performance through a full financial cycle before taking the plunge

Great questions- my thanks to those that submitted them

c


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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Chagsy - very good points.

If, as BVN said, the gross margin contribution to the outlet(pharmacy) P&L is higher than other products on the shelf, then in a well-managed pharmacy I'd expect the owner-operator or the manager (chain) to make sure that attention doesn't drop. However, not all pharmacies are well-managed, and this is something outside of BVN's control. Shelf space will indeed be re-allocated, but if the products sell and make a solid contribution to store perforamnce, retail 101 says that the space will be maintained.

However, you are making a slightly different point. If staff performance has a "decline curve" over time, then you could get into the downward spiral of: fewer recommendations, less sales, less space, fewer recommendations, less sales... etc. And, as you say, staff turnover (which is high in retail generally, and presumably also high in pharmacies - particularly chains) may be an aggravating factor. I hadn't thought at that level of detail.

On "level of education" and link between the timing of education to the vigour of product recommendation in the pharmacy, again this is a very good point. This is where account management is key. You'd expect the person on BVN's team responsible for account management to be tracking store-level performance month by month, and would be able to deploy "refresher" training in a data-driven manner. (Of course, for the chains like Terry White and Priceline, they probably don't have store-level visibility.)

I suppose it would be too much to expect that $BIO will report LFL sales, which is what we'd really need to track this. Hopefully, they will report number of outlets, which should be enough to model (ballpark) the LFL and new store contributions over time, based on historical information. (Q&A for future SM Meetings!)

As to the discretionary spend considerations - while that is true, I am prepared to take a "through the cycle" view on this one, particularly given the progress they are achieving even given the current macro-retail-environment.

My stake is a small initial one. In part so that I pay attention to the stock and the segment. But also so that if it goes 5x or 10x over the next 5-10 years, it is meaningful at a portfolio level. Further allocations will be driven by performance. I did think about holding off. But my portfolio is a bit underweight at the microcap, speccy end, and so that helped tip me into earlier action.

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Tezzdog
Added 4 months ago

Thanks Strawman. You do seem to have a knack of extracting additional info from interviewees that IMO positively informs decision making - appreciated. Blair impressive and appeared fully across his brief - there appear to be more near term announcements, which based on the interview should add further value to this stock. Apologies for the "anonymous" question - still learning how to navigate...

Have topped up a little in RL!

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

I always think I'm too soft in these interviews @Tezzdog .. Still, there's not a lot to be gained in trying to go for a "gotcha", and hopefully a friendlier atmosphere help the guests open up a bit more.

I agree @mikebrisy, Blair was impressive. Really gave a few non-standard answers, which was refreshing.

I like their staged approach, and the focus on costs at so early a stage is encouraging. Clearly he stands behind the product and the efficacy. Good to see there's a scientific footing to their product (I remember years ago asking the Blackmores CEO about the lack of firm science behind many of the company's claims..it did not go down well haha)

The company doesn't seem cheap at 12x sales, but such measures don't really offer much insight given the stage of development, pace of growth, and size of the market. @Chagsy raises some good points, but i'll certainly be adding it to my watchlist too.

Honestly, I could see a takeover offer at some stage -- for which the best defense might be a very favourable market sentiment.

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Strawman Maybe you are too soft, if the interview was a shareholder or analyst "accountability" conversation. But its not.

I think the way in which you engage the interviewees on their businesses, taps in to the natural enthusiasm they have to want to talk about their business, and I think for those who are prepared and are listening carefully, we get a lot more insight. Taking a harder tone might push them back on to the IR speaking points (if they have them!).

Obviously, in a seasoned large cap., executives are well-enough disciplined that it probably wouldn't make much different. But I think at the smaller cap end, you want them talking as fullsomely about the business as possible.

One big takeway I got, that I missed in my research, was the whole "genus, species, strain" thing. Basic micro-bio, I know, but now I can go back and look at my industry analysis because everything I have done so far has been through the lens of genus and species,... and that's a very relevant point. He also then linked this clearly to the IP question, which I am very glad you asked.

Again, on marketing strategy, I got a much sharper understanding of the $BIO approach, versus - for example - BioGaia and Seed (the latter, I'd also come across in my research last week, but did not get the nuances of their strategy which Blair explained succinctly).

There was so much in the interview, I'm sure I'll come back to it in future.

So, to come back to the original topic of this post: I think your manner helps get these people to really open up and talk about their businesses. And if we are prepared to listen, then there is a huge amount to be gained.

So, as the song goes, "Don't go changing ....."

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

Ha, no chance :)

Thanks Mike

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