Pinned straw:
I would also like to commend @Strawman on the great interview. It was great to let the conversation flow and tease out some of the underlying details and how Blair thinks about the business.
I met Blair a couple of years ago following a presentation he made at a small/micro cap conference. It was the final day, he was the final presenter, and if I remember correctly he replaced another company that pulled out. All the interstaters had headed to the airport, and the crowd was only 20% of that of previous days. Blair got the presentation slot for free. His "hustle" around cost control and making sure that every marketing dollar is stretched was evident back then, and again was reinforced in the Strawman meeting.
I didn't end up taking on a position at the time as I believed they needed a deeply discounted capital raise, and would need substantial lifts in like-for-like sales growth to make it a viable business. The company was able to deliver on the latter in spades. The share price has more than 6x since then. Stings just a little bit.
Agreed @mikebrisy
Impressive.
I have a couple of areas that I am concerned about. It is clear their focus on a limited number of stores is driving significant increases in same store sales (78% from memory).
What remains to be seen is if this continued “education” of sales staff and pharmacists is an ongoing cost, or can be scaled back to allow the sales staff to move on to new stores. I realise they have 60% margins with BAU, perhaps this a true reflection of that cost, but perhaps there has been some tweaking of numbers. My guess is that as soon as the level of “education “ is reduced there will be a commensurate drop in SSS. This will partly be due to staff turnover and partly to it no longer being front of mind in those remaining staff. Sales will reduce, valuable floor/cupboard space will be reassessed and maybe the product gets removed.
The second issue I am concerned about is although this is a “health/pharma” company; their products are likely consumer discretionary in nature for the majority of users. Perhaps akin to a gym membership. $60 per month is a lot. heading into a recession it’s…..well it’s….its still $60 but it’ll seem like a lot more !! I would be cautious about ascribing a defensive nature to the business . All those trained sales staff will become a liability in a downturn, may get laid off, and then new staff will need to be trained and up-skilled when heading into the next phase of increased discretionary spending.
I will probably wait until we can evaluate the business’ performance through a full financial cycle before taking the plunge
Great questions- my thanks to those that submitted them
c
Thanks Strawman. You do seem to have a knack of extracting additional info from interviewees that IMO positively informs decision making - appreciated. Blair impressive and appeared fully across his brief - there appear to be more near term announcements, which based on the interview should add further value to this stock. Apologies for the "anonymous" question - still learning how to navigate...
Have topped up a little in RL!