@RobN If its any consolation, I missed it completely.

At the same time I feel your frustration

I am trying to be the bloke who when placed in that situation of holding a multi bagger, I recoup my initial investment and let the SP run.

I aim to be getting a whole lot of opportunities to put this into practice.

I’m in exactly the same boat. Sold out based on valuation. Trying to take it as a learning experience on the sell side.

@topowl Just because it may ultimately be the correct decision doesn’t mean it doesn’t hurt to watch it continue to rocket to the moon. It has been a good test of dealing with emotional response.

( I left 10% of my holding to try offset the FOMO. Didn’t really help lol.)

Ditto @RobN @topowl @Arizona @Bradbury I've left some serious coin on the table, but stuck to my valuation and sold.

Maybe could have revisited the business case and valuation again (although I can't see any significant changes in info) and/or done a partial sell down to test the water (as I'm still in cash balance), but hindsight is sometimes a brutal judge.

Even though I made a tidy profit, there's still that lingering regret, as there always is (not the first time nor probably not the lady time). Let's hope my new investments help ease the pain ????

I hear you @RobN and I still hold half my shares… I keep coming back to the same conundrum. If this is a high quality high conviction business with a long timeline and that’s the kind of investor we are we shouldn’t be selling… but is it? There’s plenty of doubters with very reasonable concerns on here and I’m sure elsewhere too… it’s plausible that the next report is a let down and the share price tanks… and also that droneshield gets swamped. I’m not sure, so I sold half. Sounds so simple I’m cringing a bit with my very basic take

I sold another 1/3rd of my original position, now only have 1/3rd left. It's been a dilemma for me as, simultaneously:

• I want to "let my winners run". I don't want to over think my valuations and be selling whenever things get a bit overvalued - I'm comfortable riding the volatility.
• However, Oleg selling really tests my conviction here. Plus, it is hard to really determine how much of a moat they have with their tech.

From here I'll probably just hold my remaining shares until I see proof their growth thesis is busted, by which time the shares will have plummeted.

Although if the shares get to $10... well, we'll see.

I do wonder if Oleg regrets selling so early...

@lyndonator well my understanding is he has another 15 million options if he hits 200mil in revenue in the future.

I had put in a sell for the 66% IRL I still have after the trump assassination attempt on the weekend. But then fortunately looked at the history of the market around these events and everything is back to normal pretty quickly. Especially for attempts, assassinations the market takes weeks to get back to normal (just for the record)

Guess it depends how many of those 1-2 million dollar sales that Oleg professes to love so much.

@topowl my thought about other competitors solving the same problems is that NATO/US surely is sticky revenue. If they are integrated across multiple areas as well (detection, immobilisation in multiple settings, ships, vehicles etc) then just being semi first movers may be enough. For instance I got worried about dedrone taking most of the civilian market with Axon. However at the moment they only have fixed site detection and human defeat mechanisms. Based on drone shields presentation, so I guess a grain of salt.

i figure it will pull back nearly certainly but where will it be in 2-4 years time? Who knows as it’s a market that I feel is a bit of an unknown. But I figure there will only be more and more drones. Maybe too simplistic a thought.

Great thread, I'm going to throw in my 2c, its like group therapy????

Oleg must think about it, how could you not, and with the benefit of hindsight it was the wrong decision, but hard to say it was the wrong decision for him at the time, its personal. He saw a bigger pay day than he's ever seen before and youngish guy with a family, sometimes you have to cash it in.

Personally I've sold 3/4s of my holding, in four bites on the way up, Every time I've sold DRO has reached a size where its my largest holding and I ask myself.....

1.would I buy into this stock with this much weight, at this price. definitely not, so holding this much weight is irrational. Cut it back to something more defensible.

2. What would I tell my new to investing mate if he/she said they'd just put 15-20% of his portfolio into DroneShield at these prices?

I also have some history being terrible at selling once a stock like this is on the way down. I've seen 10+ baggers in Pointerra, Appen, Nearmap and Dubber all collapse to a point I've made nowhere near as much money as I should have, and when I look back I can't believe I held so much in some of those businesses at those prices.

For me (still short on housing, grateful i have one, but 4x kids in a 3Br), it's now the sort of money I can't justify holding at risk. By selling DroneShield on the way up, I've probably turned an 11x bagger into a 6x bagger at present, which definitely engenders some reflection. Ultimately I'm ok with it, I know because of this I'll never be roaring kitty, but I'm intent on getting rich slow instead!

Thanks for the that.

Def a little bit like group therapy….

which helps

I'm selling a big chunk of my DRO shares today -- see my valuation for the rationale.

You're welcome Bulls, shares should jump significantly on the back of this :)

@Strawman really nicely argued valuation. I have been sitting on the sidelines with $DRO, green with envy for 9 months. I thought of having a go last year - but as Claude Walker often says, "you can't pat all the fluffy dogs".

But I really do think we are getting into bubble territory and, if I held it, I'd definitely also be a "sell" today ... in fact, I'd have probably sold earlier.

Several StrawPeople have lamented their progressive selldowns, only to see the SP march higher, but I really like @Longpar5's comment in their recent post, so I'll repeat it:

"By selling DroneShield on the way up, I've probably turned an 11x bagger into a 6x bagger at present, which definitely engenders some reflection. Ultimately I'm ok with it, I know because of this I'll never be roaring kitty, but I'm intent on getting rich slow instead!"

We've often spoken here about "not selling your winners" but there comes a point when if you can't get your valuation with your most optimistic scenario anywhere near the SP, then selling is absolutely the right thing to do. (I have done this to great effect over the years with $WTC, $ALU, $XRO and $PNV. The trick is not to be too cute and sell when there are plausible upside cases.)

In your valuation post, I think you've made a good case why a rational investor would sell.

Disc: Not Held, Never Have, Full of Regret

Thanks Mike,

Nice post.

glad to hear your take

Thanks @mikebrisy -- i often refer to ProMedicus as a big regret for me. Selling down on valuation grounds literally cost me several hundred thousand dollars in forgone gains..

But maybe that's more the exception rather than the rule? Selling down ALC, EVS and 3DP when they were getting silly was actually the right thing to do -- even though i sold too early, and not enough, and then started buying back when they dropped lower (ugh) they've all given me healthy money-weighted returns.

Let's see how this one goes...(@neke86_ is probably right -- $4/share incoming!)

I think it’s interesting to think about looking at valuations - and therefore value investing - in the context of hundred baggers. We’re all seeking the holy grail of finding the next hundred bagger but the reality is that likely means placing an initial investment when sentiment is lousy - often for good reasons.

it means holding through periods of underperformance or cyclicality, as the sentiment gets tested. It means holding through periods where the share price gets ahead of fundamentals and market enthusiasm pushes the share price into bubble territory. It may mean sucking up the resulting correction. It likely means putting aside rationalism and our best instincts.

On the Fear and Greed podcast they lament how they never expect to own a hundred bagger as they know too much about how the market works and how share prices react.

I can relate to this. I haven’t yet given up on owning a hundred bagger but I fear rationalism will prevent me from sticking the journey long enough. I’m not sure whether that’s a good thing or not.

Just some random thoughts from Pedang airport

Such a good point @Noddy74

Reminds me of that study from years ago that showed the best performing brokerage accounts are those belonging to dead people.

Yeah, lots of bad performing positions, but they have one single rocket that defines everything.

(Hope you had a good trip btw!)

i’m travelling through Europe for a few months & discovered while watching the Euro finals that I’d been pickpocketed from my small backpack. Feeling not good that I’ve got to travel to Vienna (from Biudapest) to get an emergency passport, I decided to login in yesterday to take a rare look at the portfolio.

to my surprise, DRO had shot up significantly. The last time I looked it had a 1 after the dollar sign. So to make myself feel a little better, I sold 5.000 shares.

Last night as I was packing my main backpack, Lo and behold, there was said passport.

I awoke this morning to find they’ve dropped significantly. As you often say @Strawman , luck plays a big role in life & investing. No skill on my part whatsoever

Take the wins in any way they come @Rocketrod !

Enjoy your trip