Pinned straw:
3...2...1 for the cap raise to "support working capital needed to hit Biome's ambitious 3 year cumulative revenue target"
@Arizona has set out the pretty important announcement from $BIO the morning - the first piece of their 3-year strategy.
Now, while on its own, a revenue target is pretty meaningless in terms of understanding value creation and - in some instances - can drive value destroying behaviour, I view this target as very positive when placed in the context of the vision and leadership thinking demonstrated by CEO Blair in the recent Strawman meeting.
$85m revenue in 2027 represents a revenue CAGR from $13m in FY24 of 87%.
That's far in excess of the assumptions to FY26 that I put in the scenario in my initial straw on the firm, which led to a value estimate of $1.10.
Just to put this aspirational target in context, if I update my earlier scenario to include annual expense growth of 25% instead of 20% which I assumed, the 2024 value per share for a P/E of 40 falls from $1.10 to $0.91. Using the same assumptions with the aspirational target of $85m sales in 2027, the 2024 Value per share is $2.97 - holding everything else constant.
Or, taking another lens, today's SP of $0.54 has a market cap of $116, and a price-to-sales ration of 9. Should $85m sales be achieved in 2027 at today's SP, the price to sales would be 1.4.
By any measure, this is an aggressive growth target. But Blair now understands how the business scales in Australia, he has insights into the product-market fit, and he has two years insight into product market fit in the UK. I'll await to hear the full strategy in a few weeks time, but in the meantime, this firm continues to hold a lot of interest for me.
Disc: Held in RL and SM