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Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

29 July 2024

Biome shares revenue target as part of Vision 27 Strategic Plan

  • ● Biome sets revenue target of up to $85m cumulative through the next three years (FY25-FY27)
  • ● Biome exceeded the last three-year cumulative target (FY21-24) by 14% overall ($24m vs $21m)

○ The final year of this plan was exceeded by 30% ($13m vs $10m) ● Biome’s Vision 27 target of up to $85m represents an over 400%

increase on previous three-year target

Microbiome health company Biome Australia Limited (ASX: BIO) (‘Biome’ or ‘the company’) is pleased to announce a revenue target that will be driven by Biome’s Vision 27, three-year strategic plan, due to be released to the market later this quarter.

The cumulative revenue target has been set at a range of $75m to $85m over three years (1 July, 2024 - 30 June, 2027). This represents more than 400% growth over the preceding period’s target of $21m and 350% compared to the actual result of $24m in cumulative sales revenue (FY21-24).

The key focus is to continue to invest for growth while continuing to grow profit.

Biome will share the complete Vision 27 with the market later this quarter, supported by an investor webinar.

UlladullaDave
Added 4 months ago

3...2...1 for the cap raise to "support working capital needed to hit Biome's ambitious 3 year cumulative revenue target"

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@UlladullaDave I actually hope he does. Even a mere $5m to provide some buffer to the $3m cash on hand, would help. More, would give him some resources if he wants to licence in new molecules over the next 1-3 years. So, maybe $10m-$20m would be better. After all, in a tiny raise you lose a lot in fixed fees.

As @Strawman said in the interview, if you wait until you need it, you can find it costs a lot more (or words to that effect.)

So, given an uncertain future, I'd take the option for a small dilution today than a bigger dilution a year or two down the track.

Given that Blair clearly takes some pride in not having significantly diluted shareholders since IPO, I'm more concerned (based on today's revenue targets, which I've argued are very do-able), they he'll push ahead without further capital. He's got $3m in the bank, and each month he can see the balance growing. He's already got 8-9 people in UK/Europe, so doesn't need a big step up in headcount to pursue the targets. In Australia, he's said the focus for FY25 is driving the existing accounts, and not adding new ones. In fact, I get the feeling he's starting to get inbound calls from outlets that aren't currently stocking the range.

I wonder what counsel he's getting from his Board?

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UlladullaDave
Added 4 months ago

Agree they would be nuts not to try and raise a sizeable amount here – and as they've got Canary Capital on retainer (and Canary has already been paid with 7.5m options) it seems unlikely they will not be raising anymore money. To be honest, I find it totally implausible that they could achieve these revenue targets without further capital – having a million dollars in invoice financing on the balance sheet doesn't scream self-sustaining business to me.

Those three year revenue targets form part of the LTI so probably uncontroversial to assume that management don't consider it a stretch target as long as they can get the funding.

But yeah, the valuation is just beyond the realms of normal.

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Arizona has set out the pretty important announcement from $BIO the morning - the first piece of their 3-year strategy.

Now, while on its own, a revenue target is pretty meaningless in terms of understanding value creation and - in some instances - can drive value destroying behaviour, I view this target as very positive when placed in the context of the vision and leadership thinking demonstrated by CEO Blair in the recent Strawman meeting.

$85m revenue in 2027 represents a revenue CAGR from $13m in FY24 of 87%.

That's far in excess of the assumptions to FY26 that I put in the scenario in my initial straw on the firm, which led to a value estimate of $1.10.

Just to put this aspirational target in context, if I update my earlier scenario to include annual expense growth of 25% instead of 20% which I assumed, the 2024 value per share for a P/E of 40 falls from $1.10 to $0.91. Using the same assumptions with the aspirational target of $85m sales in 2027, the 2024 Value per share is $2.97 - holding everything else constant.

Or, taking another lens, today's SP of $0.54 has a market cap of $116, and a price-to-sales ration of 9. Should $85m sales be achieved in 2027 at today's SP, the price to sales would be 1.4.

By any measure, this is an aggressive growth target. But Blair now understands how the business scales in Australia, he has insights into the product-market fit, and he has two years insight into product market fit in the UK. I'll await to hear the full strategy in a few weeks time, but in the meantime, this firm continues to hold a lot of interest for me.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

It's a cumulative target @mikebrisy, but your point still stands -- it's an ambitious target. But certainly possible if they can maintain some good sales momentum.

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

D-Oh! @Strawman thanks for pointing out. The risk of not paying attention!!!!


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