Forum Topics WLE WLE WLE valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added a month ago
Justification

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April 30th 2019 Pre-Tax NTA: $1.2039 (ex-div).

April 30th 2019 Post-Tax NTA: $1.1769 (ex-div).

6 months on:

October 31st 2019 Pre-Tax NTA: $1.2522 (ex-div).

October 31st 2019 Post-Tax NTA: $1.2264 (ex-div).

October 31st NTA after tax but before tax on unrealised gains: $1.2471 (ex-div). NTA increase of just over 4% in 6 months, so around 8% pa (annualised). SP has been rising steadily since June. I hold WLE shares.

November 30, 2019: Pre-tax NTA for WLE was $1.3016, and the share price has remained 3 to 4 cents below that level for the past couple of weeks (to December 27th 2019). I spoke to Matt Haupt and Oscar Oberg during the November roadshow when they visited Adelaide and Oscar (who manages WAM, WAA, WAX & WMI, but not WLE or WGB, which are managed by Matt and Catriona) told me that he has been buying WLE and WGB shares himself ahead of his own LICs because they were both trading at discounts to their NTA and his LICs were trading either at premiums or at NTA - or close enough to NTA as to clearly NOT be bargains. He told me that just like Geoff Wilson himself, he (Oscar) likes to buy $1 worth of assets for less than $1, and you can still do that with WLE and WGB. I hold both of them.

22-June-2020: Update: WLE pre-tax NTA was $1.15 on May 30, 2020. Share price was $1.08 then, and is now a little lower at $1.065. WLE had 15.6 cps in their profit reserve - enough for 2.5 years of dividends. Cash = 8.9%. After WAM Global (WGB), WAM Leaders (WLE) has the next best discount to NTA of the 6 LICs currently managed by Wilson Asset Management (aka WAM Funds). Their flagship fund, WAM Capital (WAM) is trading at an NTA-premium of over 20% and WAM Research (WAX) has a NTA-premium in their SP that is between 35% and 40%, which is huge! I'm not going to pay those sort of premiums, particularly for WAM Capital (WAM) which has less than one half-year dividend in their profit reserve. WAX has a much better profit reserve but a they're also at a much higher premium-to-NTA.

The best value is currently WGB, then WLE, then WMI. I now hold all three (I sold my WAM today, and bought some WMI and more WGB - I already had a decent position in WLE).

BAF is also very interesting, and will be even more interesting when it becomes WAM Alternatives instead of Blue Sky Alternatives Access Fund - and their ticker code gets changed - probably to WAL (because WAA and WAF are both taken already). I also hold BAF shares.

Update: 21-Dec-2020: WLE's pre-tax NTA as at 30-Nov-2020 was $1.2896, so $1.29 is my new valuation for them. I do NOT currently hold WLE shares, having taken profits after the gap between the NTA and the SP closed up. In other words, I bought them at a substantial discount to NTA, then sold them at close to NTA, when the NTA was actually significantly higher as well. WLE's top 20 holdings (in alphabetical order) at 30-Nov-2020 were: ANZ, BHP, CBA, CSL, FMG, IAG, NAB, OZL, QAN, QBE, RHC, RIO, S32, SCG, SGR, STO, TCL, TLS, WBC, WOW.

18-Mar-2021: Update: 28-Feb-2021 before tax NTA = $1.37. After tax NTA = $1.31. Share price at the end of Feb was $1.43, and is now $1.52 (on 18-Mar-2021), so WLE has moved from a small discount to NTA to now being priced with a small premium to NTA in the share price. Nothing like the rediculous premium that WAX is trading at (+38.7% premium to NTA at end of Feb) or the more modest premiums of WAM (+14%) or WMI (+16.8%), but still at a small premium. Even WAM Global (WGB) was trading at a small premium (of +4.8%) to NTA at the end of Feb, and I can't think of any other globally focussed LIC (an ASX-listed investment company that invests in companies outside of Australia) that is currently trading at an NTA premium, so that's quite a feat!

In fact, the only LIC that WAM Funds manage that was NOT trading at a premium to NTA at the end of Feb 2021 was WAM Alternative Assets (WMA), which had a before tax NTA of $1.10 and closed the month at $0.995, being a 9.5% discount to NTA, which is a lot less than the big discount they were trading at prior to WAM Funds taking over the management, and that was fairly recent, so in time they may also end up trading at an NTA premium as well. However, they also might not, because of the very nature of the assets they hold, and the market's perception of the margin of error that may need to be factored in to their valuations of those assets. A lot of WMA's assets aren't trading daily on an exchange like company shares are, so the valuations are a little harder to work out, and for that reason it is quite possible that a 10% discount - or thereabouts - might be as good as it gets. We shall see.

But back to WLE - WAM Leaders - Matt and John (and their team) are doing a great job with this fund, and the share price reflects the underlying portfolio performance. It's all good. Wish I was still holding them actually...

04-Aug-2024: Update:

WLE will probably release their July report tomorrow (Monday 5th August 2024) however I'll take a stab and say their before-tax NTA is probably worth around $1.39, based on their NTA at the end of June (see here: WLE-June-2024-Investment-Update.PDF) of 133.60 cents ($1.336) plus the market (the ASX200 index or XJO.asx) rose +4.17% in July (from 7,768 close on June 30th to 8,092 close on July 31st), so 133.60 cents + 4.17% = 139.17 cents or $1.39.

WLE is now my largest position in my largest real money portfolio, with 100,000 WLE shares held in that portfolio, bought at $1.27 two Friday's ago, 26-July-2024. I like their dividend yield and the fact that they've outperformed their benchmark index over 3 years, 5 years, 7 years and since inception (before fees), and have paid more in dividends than people would have received by investing a similar amount in an ASX200 tracker (ETF). They also have a healthy profit reserve with more than 3 years' worth of dividends in there. They have also raised their dividends every single year since inception. The dividend yield at my buy price of $1.27 (and they closed on Friday only half a cent above that, at $1.275) is 7.24% plus franking, so over 10% when grossed up to include those franking credits. This is based on WLE paying a 4.6 cps final div, the same as their interim div, so 9.2 cps/year.

WLE have underperformed the index over the past year, hence the premium to NTA came out of their share price and they have traded at a small discount to NTA, which is why I have been attracted to them now, that and the dividend yield. But they have outperformed over all periods from 3 years upwards and their profit reserve allows them to maintain or even increase dividends even when they have a bad year.

So, the reasons I'm back in are:

  1. The dividend yield of over 7%, or 10% grossed up, and all fully franked dividends.
  2. The discount to NTA. It's small, but it's better than paying a premium.
  3. The exposure to large caps that I don't follow closely, so happy to offload that part of my market exposure to Matt Haupt at WAM Funds as he has a track record of beating the index and building up good profits and paying out top notch dividends.

I also hold WGB (their global LIC) for (a) global sharemarket exposure with active management and (b) good rising dividends, fully franked, with an even healthier profit reserve that covers over 5 years worth of div's: See here: WGB-June-2024-Investment-Update.PDF.

So - basically both bought at discounts to NTA (/NAV), both paying good above-market fully franked and rising dividends (WLE's yield is higher than WGB's yield however) and both give me exposure to market exposure that are not my forte - i.e. Australian large caps and overseas listed companies.

I do not hold any other LICs. In terms of WAM Funds other LICs, I don't like paying premiums to NTA, plus WAM Capital (WAM) has bugger all in their profit reserve so will continue to struggle to maintain their dividends let alone grow them - they haven't raised their dividends since 2018 (so have only managed to maintain it at the same level for the past 6 years) - and WAX have run out of franking credits and had to reduce their franking percentage.

So that's why I like WLE right now.

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https://www.asx.com.au/investors/investment-tools-and-resources/asx-on-demand

WAM Leaders: Investing in large cap companies with compelling fundamentals

Recorded in July, posted to YouTube two days ago, on Friday 2nd August 2024.

lowway
a month ago

Excellent history and dated comments for $WLE @Bear77, very impressive.

I finally decided to sell out of $WAM & $WAX and moved these positions into WLE aweek ago, so totally agree with your business case and rationale, particularly for my SMSF in pension mode.

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Bear77
a month ago

Tues, 6th August, 2024: WLE's July 31st NTA came in at $1.375 - see here: WLE-July-2024-Investment-Update.PDF

So one and a half cents below my $1.39 estimate, so they did likely underperform the index in July, however both the index and WLE's NTA would have taken a hammering on Friday (2nd Aug) and Monday (5th Aug - yesterday), so possibly, but I doubt they would have dropped more than 5% from that $1.375 end-of-July NTA, so still above $1.30 most likely, and WLE closed at $1.245 yesterday, and are trading at around $1.26.5 to $1.27 today (today's range = $1.245 to $1.28). Still a small discount to NTA in the SP.

I haven't bought or sold anything yesterday or today - based on the falls in the US overnight (their Monday), and our market rise based on our own central bank (RBA) decision mostly to (hopefully) leave rates on hold rather than increase them - that decision still to come - @ around 2:30pm today eastern time, so in around half an hour. There is still risk there, either that the RBA do raise (low probability IMO) and/or that we resume the sell-off tomorrow based on further US market selling - if we get that tonight.

So I would rather see where we land tomorrow before deciding whether to deploy more money into the market. My biggest loser today was AD8, which I hold here and in my SMSF, however AD8 are just back to around what I paid for my AD8 shares last year, and in my view the investment thesis is still intact, the market had just priced too much near term growth in - which they/we got this year but won't get in FY2025, however, AD8 are still a growth stock, just not growing in a straight line - 2025 is going to be a year of transition and low growth due to the outstanding year they had in FY2024, which was partly due to chip shortages and OEM's over-ordering to secure supply, plus the transition to more software-based sales in 2025, but I'm not too fussed, swings and roundabouts, AD8 still have no SERIOUS competition - so they are still going to be the dominant player in their space - and I don't intend to sell until that scenario changes significantly - and today's announcement changes nothing except FY2025 growth expectations. That said, I have enough exposure already - so not piling in at these levels - just holding what I already have. The market can take a while to start to like a company again after that company disappoints with lower growth guidance in the near term than what the market was expecting, so I don't expect their SP to bounce back up hard, not in the near term. But they'll be back. Look at how much they grew in the second half of CY2023. The market is fickle, and they are willing to pay up for growth and then dump anything that doesn't live up to their high expectations in terms of future growth guidance, and the same sort of move could happen in 2026 - you never know, but at the end of the day, I'm looking at what AD8 should be worth in 5 years, and it's a fair way north of today's share price trading range - so happy to hold and wait.

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Bear77
a month ago

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent.

https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2024/mr-24-15.html [2:30pm, Sydney time, Tuesday 6th August, 2024]

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