Tues, 6th August, 2024: WLE's July 31st NTA came in at $1.375 - see here: WLE-July-2024-Investment-Update.PDF
So one and a half cents below my $1.39 estimate, so they did likely underperform the index in July, however both the index and WLE's NTA would have taken a hammering on Friday (2nd Aug) and Monday (5th Aug - yesterday), so possibly, but I doubt they would have dropped more than 5% from that $1.375 end-of-July NTA, so still above $1.30 most likely, and WLE closed at $1.245 yesterday, and are trading at around $1.26.5 to $1.27 today (today's range = $1.245 to $1.28). Still a small discount to NTA in the SP.
I haven't bought or sold anything yesterday or today - based on the falls in the US overnight (their Monday), and our market rise based on our own central bank (RBA) decision mostly to (hopefully) leave rates on hold rather than increase them - that decision still to come - @ around 2:30pm today eastern time, so in around half an hour. There is still risk there, either that the RBA do raise (low probability IMO) and/or that we resume the sell-off tomorrow based on further US market selling - if we get that tonight.
So I would rather see where we land tomorrow before deciding whether to deploy more money into the market. My biggest loser today was AD8, which I hold here and in my SMSF, however AD8 are just back to around what I paid for my AD8 shares last year, and in my view the investment thesis is still intact, the market had just priced too much near term growth in - which they/we got this year but won't get in FY2025, however, AD8 are still a growth stock, just not growing in a straight line - 2025 is going to be a year of transition and low growth due to the outstanding year they had in FY2024, which was partly due to chip shortages and OEM's over-ordering to secure supply, plus the transition to more software-based sales in 2025, but I'm not too fussed, swings and roundabouts, AD8 still have no SERIOUS competition - so they are still going to be the dominant player in their space - and I don't intend to sell until that scenario changes significantly - and today's announcement changes nothing except FY2025 growth expectations. That said, I have enough exposure already - so not piling in at these levels - just holding what I already have. The market can take a while to start to like a company again after that company disappoints with lower growth guidance in the near term than what the market was expecting, so I don't expect their SP to bounce back up hard, not in the near term. But they'll be back. Look at how much they grew in the second half of CY2023. The market is fickle, and they are willing to pay up for growth and then dump anything that doesn't live up to their high expectations in terms of future growth guidance, and the same sort of move could happen in 2026 - you never know, but at the end of the day, I'm looking at what AD8 should be worth in 5 years, and it's a fair way north of today's share price trading range - so happy to hold and wait.