Forum Topics PLS PLS Broker Views

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

Since I just posted the two AFR articles on Pilbara's $560 million takeover offer for Latin Resources I'd figured FWIW I'd see what some of the brokers were saying (note most of these (except RBC) were published before yesterdays conf call and market open)...


Morgan Stanley: Underweight PT $2.70

Today's counter cyclical transaction makes sense. However, for PLS we remain concerned about medium-term recoveries and costs, the contract structures and prices achieved (lower vs. peers), and the ramp-up of the downstream conversion plants alongside weakening Chinese EV sales (-10% MoM in July)

JP Morgan: Neutral PT $2.80

PLS have announced today the acquisition of ASX-listed Latin Resources (LRS) in an all-scrip deal. At PLS’ last close price of $2.85/sh, the offer implies 20cps for LRS’ shareholders, a 67% premium to LRS’ last close. LRS own the Salinas lithium development project in Brazil, with a preliminary study indicating stage 1 production potential of 405kt of SC5 and 123ktpa of SC3 production coming online in 2026 for capex of US$253m. Stepping into a new jurisdiction could be challenging, although the LRS MD will be retained on a consulting basis by PLS for 12mths to assist with the transition. Another growth option (in addition to P2000), presents options in terms of sequencing additional capacity into a market that appears to be oversupplied on our S/D market assumptions over the remainder of the decade

Macquarie:

PLS inorganic strategy makes sense: PLS looking to add resource off Pilgangoora tenure is an intelligent move as it grows the company without incrementally adding tonnes to the market. It also arguably is timed appropriately with lithium prices in the doldrums and the retention of balance sheet flexibility important at this point of the cycle

Macquarie aren't providing a rating or PT - and note they "are currently on research restrictions" - digging into their disclosures section ...

Macquarie is currently providing investment banking services to Pilbara Minerals Ltd for which it expects to receive or intends to seek compensation

Macquarie is currently providing investment banking services to Latin Resources Ltd for which it expects to receive or intends to seek compensation

UBS: Sell PT $2.50

While LRS talks to 2026 first production, we're not convinced the market needs the supply and how soon it will come. Deal completion is expected late this calendar year with the Scheme meeting likely in mid-Nov 24. The 100% scrip consideration leaves net cash intact at A$1.6bn ahead of new project funding (debt/gov financing and strategic/ offtake options). However, we remain concerned an over-supplied lithium market will weigh on prices for 1-3yrs ahead and remain unchanged Sell rated at A$2.50/sh

CLSA: Hold PT $2.90

We believe the deal lacks short-term accretiveness, but if timed with a market bottom, which is likely near, and the asset meets its potential, it could offer significant long-term upside. We update our model accordingly and lower our target price from A$3.10 to A$2.90

RBC: Outperform PT $3.90 (up from $3.80)

PLS is offering A20¢ps (all scrip) for LRS. The rationale for the acquisition is to incorporate the 100% LRS-owned Salina project into the portfolio; diversifying the asset base counter cyclically. Based on a recent significant increase in Resources (and pending DFS), our estimates suggest a value accretive acquisition, but near-term earnings/FCF dilution. Further to our first take, we incorporate the Salinas development project in our NAV. Adjusting for the transaction has reduced our FY25e/26e EPS by 6-7%, but increased our price target 3% to A$3.90/sh. We retain our Outperform rating


DISC: Held (very small position) in RL

Tom73
Added 4 months ago

Thanks @Remorhaz for consolidating the views on the PLS deal.

I am looking forward to seeing what Gaurav Sodhi has to say, particularly regarding the quality of the asset acquired.

My take from what you presented is that it's an option play for improved Lithium prices in a few years' time at a low point in the cycle - smart move and at 6.5% dilution or around last years earnings (low cycle earnings at that) in terms of cost, it's not like they have bet the farm on it.

I remain on the sidelines watching PLS closely, I feel it is good value currently but I am looking for great value to justify the supply side risks out of China on Lithium for the next 3-5 years.

9