Forum Topics XRF XRF FY24 Results

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

Mining analytical equipment manufacturer $XRF released its FY24 results today.

ASX Release

Their Highlights

  • Revenue up 9% to $60.1m from $55.3m
  • Net Profit After Tax up 16% to $8.9m from $7.7m
  • June Q4 Profit Before Tax of $3.3m and Sales Revenue of $16.2m
  • June Q4 Profit Before Tax and Non-Controlling Interests (Orbis) of $3.9m
  • Final fully franked dividend of 3.9 cents per share 


My Analysis

$XRF provides quarterly revenue and PBT updates, so there was little room for any overall surprises.

In July 2024, the acquisition of the outstanding 50% in Orbis became effective. Without the previous NCI, PBT for Q4 was $3.3m. Including the NCI, PBT rises to $3.9m. Future periods will now enjoy the full contribution of Orbis.

The main driver of the result was %GM expansion from 41.6% to 44.2%, leading to gross margin increasing by 15.5% on revenue up 8.8%.

Performance was primarily driven by capital Capital Sales, up 16% with an NPBT margin of 21% up from 18% in FY24. With the initial sales of xrTGA (thermogravimetric analysis) equipment, capital sales are expected to continue to grow strongly into FY25. Management noted "Sales growing in numerous markets worldwide". Capital sales are also expect to benefit in FY25 as the company launches new products that have been in development.

Consumables revenue was up 11%, albeit with PBT margin compressing slightly to 30% from 31% in FY24. Falling Lithium prices were called out as impacting both selling prices and production costs, and will lower working capital requirements into FY25.

Precious metals was the only underperformer, with revenue down 1% on PCP. The problematic German Office was called out as reducing profit from FY23 by $0.8m "due to economic conditions. This is expected to improve in FY25.

The final fully franked dividend of 3.9 cps represents a +18% increase on last year, and a grossed up yield of 3.8%,... not so impressive in this high interest rate environment, but this is primarily a capital growth play.

Free cash flow was $5.7, down from $7.1m in the PCP due to investment in manfuacturing facilities, however, cash on the balance sheet increased to $12.0m from $10.4m.

My Key Takeaways

The results represent good - if unremarkable - progress.

NPAT growth of 16% was strong albeit bringing the 3-year CAGR down to 23%.

Strong capital sales helped cover a weak performance in precious metals.

$XRF continues to be a steady performer.


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Disc: Held in RL and SM

thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

That graph is the proverbial picture that paints a thousand words!

My only regret is not owning enough of this little gem, over concerns about its exposure to a cyclical sector. The company has spread its risks well in that regard indeed.

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@thunderhead no need for regret. This is a relatively illiquid stock and will move significantly on quarterly results variability, which have nothing to do with the underlying business fundamentals. It is one of a small number of microcaps that I currently own and am seeking to build larger positions in over time. It's never too late to start with a quiet long term compounder. It's still early days for $XRF.

Time is our friend!

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

Most definitely @mikebrisy My average is a little under $1 now with plenty of room to add, and yet, it is hard not to feel a tinge of regret as I first had shares in the 20-25c range years ago - I sold out of those for a modest profit not long after in an effort to narrow down and simplify my portfolio at the time. This is a case of throwing out the proverbial flower with the weeds!

To top it off, I missed topping up at the intra-day low of a few months ago by a cent! Oh well, there's always next time.

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Wini
Added 4 months ago

Great summary @mikebrisy. XRF continues it's steady growth nicely!

As you highlighted, the one weakness was the Germany office. Management has cited general economic weakness, but the hit was extremely large meaning the segment could be far more cyclical than expected. Nonetheless, the one positive is we have seen a half on half recovery which bodes well for the commentary. Germany revenue over the last four financial half years: $4.5m, $2.8m, $1.6m, $2.5m.

It's a testament to the core business that at a group level that decline is barely noticed, and combined with the full contribution of Orbis provides a nice kick into FY25 if the recovery continues.

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

nice summary @mikebrisy & @Wini

Not much to add, other than to note the sizeable jump in CAPEX -- $1.6m Vs $0.8m in FY23. (while still increasing the overall cash balance)

Hopefully that proves a savvy investment -- we'll get a sense when they unveil some new products this year.

A PE of 22x does not seem terrible for such a high quality business that is well capitalized, pays a dividend and is delivering double-digit growth.

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Longpar5
Added 4 months ago

I'd be interested to know if you guys are concerned about XRFs exposure to the iron ore sector. Is it big factor and how elastic is demand for XRFs products, in particular consumables?

I'm not an expert on the sector by any stretch, but am concerned about a lower iron ore price driven by very weak steel demand in China. Looked it up this morning, last time the steel price was this low for any length of time (appeox 2016) iron ore was around us$70/tonne, its come down a bit already this year but sitting at around us$100 presently.

I think Vance might have discussed this in his first strawman interview, but always good to hear from other investors too.

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Longpar5 It is a question I have asked myself, and I don't think they've disclosed revenue by commodity (in the way that some other services companies do. I stand to be corrected if they have.)

Three parts to my answer:

  • Their kit is used across a wide range of commodities.
  • It is needed across all phases of the mine lifecycle: exploration, development, operations, extension. A downturn would curtail exploration, capex, and extensions, but operations would continue (except for high cost mines that are shut in)
  • Even within the iron ore exposure, the big Aussie miners $BHP, $RIO and FMG are low enough on the cost curve, that they will keep operating whatever the price.


A deep downturn across the commodity complex, such as you might see in a significant global recession would impact demands due to exploration and capex and, to some extent, operations being reduced. So there is an exposure to the mining cycle.

However, with respect to iron ore alone, I don't think $70 iron ore would be a major threat.

Others here are more plugged into mining, so interested in their views, too.

Of course, such a situation would present a buying opportunity! As the cycle inevitably turns :-)

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