Forum Topics BIO BIO Vision 27

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

Probiotics firm $BIO have announced their Vision 27 strategic plan, as CEO Blair had promised for September. (No announcement of a webinar to go with it as yet, but the presentation is reasonable self-contained).

Presentation

Much is the market sensitive information has been released before: (cumulative revenue target FY25-27 of $75-85m; test market entry to Canada)

There are some more detailed specifics about individual markets, albeit entirely consistent with what's been said before, and also on supply chain.

There is reference to a new proprietary strain of L. plantarum XXXX (name to be finalised) without saying what it's for.

There is also reference to an upcoming new brand and product range aimed at filling an existing market gap. Not a lot of detail here and we'll find out more in H2FY25, (I am idly speculating that this is a more generic range to create more SKUs in the behind the counter display, probably not back up by the clinical trials on condition-specific labels, Differentiated brand is so as not to confuse the with the clincal-supported label claims of the Activated Probiotics range)

Those are just some initial observations from a very quick scan.

Dis: Held in RL and SM

kamawa14
Added 2 months ago

New member here.

to get the backstory and info on this company I have searched the ticker BIO on yahoo finance, looked for it on SimplyWall Street and then lastly googled “Bio probiotics Australia” to find the company website .. all to no avail.

can you please get me up to speed on where to get background on this company please.


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thetjs
Added 2 months ago

Website is here https://www.biomeaustralia.com/investor-hub


have a read through the forum posts and straws from the start. Great way to get a good understanding and people’s thoughts.

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russslllaing
Added 2 months ago

What are you referring to on peoples thoughts?

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thetjs
Added 2 months ago

Nothing specific, just that the members comments, assessments etc on the company can provide a good overview on the company and what they have been doing and aiming to do in the future.

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

Hi @kamawa14 welcome.

I suggest the following.

  1. Watch the recording of the 15th July Strawman Meeting.
  2. Watch the Vision 27 video on the $BIO investor hub.
  3. Read member posts and the links they provide here on Strawman, via the company page.
  4. Review the FY24 results


2-3 hours work and you’ll be well on your way.

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russslllaing
Added 2 months ago

Sorry I thought you were referring to something on the website

cheers

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

I finally caught up with the $BIO Vision 27 presentation from earlier this week.

The one specific area that caught my attention was Blair's discussion of the French pharmacy market. This gels from my own observations of visits to France over the years, where I have observed French pharmacists personally engaging customers in the store and - from what I could see (with my limited command of French) - actively engaging them in discussions about potential remedies, including things like naturopathy and supplements.

While $BIO will do a year or two of below-the-radar market testing, and therefore it will potentially be 2-3 years before significant sales, the French market is huge and could be a material growth driver in its own right - IN THE SUCCESS case. This is important to my valuation, because although I can easily see ANZ and UKI driving the growth required to achieve the Vision 27 numbers, I am interested in what the continuing trajectory will be in FY27 and beyond. If the EU and Canada start building momentum around that time, and are followed in the fullness of time by the US, then the path for 5-10 years of powerful growth seems plausible, even before we start talking about the broadening of the portfolio.

The other area from the presentation, which was not new information, was the importance of registration in Canada, as a gateway eventually to the US. Approval in Canada, requiring GMP approved facilities, automatically meets the requirements of the US market. In fact, Health Canada approval for non-medicine supplements, is considered a gold standard for the US, and is a level that many foreign manufacturers of supplements are unwilling to attain (according to Blair).

Coming back to France, I asked my BA (Perplexity.Ai) to report on the extent to which French pharmacists are active in advising customers on OTC remedies, including pro biotics. Here's what came back - I've omitted all the sources.

Seems like a good fit for an educated HCP, advising patients on targeted behind the counter products, which was Blair's point.

------------------------------------------------

French pharmacists play a very active and important role in advising customers on over-the-counter remedies and supplements, including probiotics. This is due to several factors unique to the French healthcare system and pharmacy culture.

Key Role of Pharmacies in French Healthcare: French pharmacies, marked by their distinctive green illuminated signs, are ubiquitous and serve as a primary source for health advice and products. Unlike in some other countries, many items that would be available elsewhere, such as aspirin or vitamins, can only be purchased from a pharmacy in France.

Highly Trained Pharmacists: French pharmacists undergo extensive training, requiring six to seven years of university studies in pharmacology, homeopathy, and nutrition. This comprehensive education enables them to provide competent diagnoses and recommendations for many common conditions.

Personal Relationship with Customers: It's common for French residents to be on a first-name basis with their local pharmacist. This personal relationship allows pharmacists to be familiar with their customers' health histories and needs, enabling more tailored advice.

Consultation-Based Service: In French pharmacies, most over-the-counter medicines are kept behind the counter, requiring customers to speak directly with a pharmacist to obtain them. This setup naturally facilitates consultation and allows pharmacists to provide personalized advice on remedies and supplements.

Emphasis on Natural and Alternative Remedies: French pharmacists often recommend herbal or homeopathic remedies, including probiotics. Homeopathy is particularly popular in France, with up to 70 percent of physicians being receptive to it.

Regulatory Environment: The European regulatory framework for dietary supplements, including probiotics, is less stringent than for pharmaceuticals. This places greater responsibility on pharmacists to advise customers on the appropriate use of these products.

While specific data on probiotic recommendations isn't available, the active role of French pharmacists in advising on over-the-counter products and supplements is clear. Their extensive training, personal relationships with customers, and the consultation-based service model in French pharmacies all contribute to their influential role in guiding customers' choices in remedies and supplements like probiotics.

Disc: Held in RL and SM

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lowway
Added 2 months ago

Great use of AI tools to cut down on research time @mikebrisy I've got a bit of a soft spot fur $BIO, but don't have any medical or pharmaceutical expertise, which is why I hold in SM portfolio only at this stage. Thanks for your take on their Vision 27.

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Arizona
Added 2 months ago

@mikebrisy I was expecting something a little more explosive/exciting than what really seems to be the packaging up of a group of prior announcements, essentially old news.

However, it all seemed very measured, level headed. A wholistic plan really. Ranging from pushing into new markets and grabbing more of the TAM in Australia, through to addressing potential issues in the supply chain. Overall it seemed to me like it wis all headed in the right direction.

I wonder if something has happened to raise concerns re production in Italy, or does it just make sense to diversify especially as sales increase?

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mikebrisy
Added 2 months ago

@Arizona I wasn't expecting much in addition to what has been communicated. Blair seems to follow the approach of consistent messaging and incrementally releasing new information as it becomes available. I think this is OK.

On revenue and markets

I quite like the 3-year cumulative revenue target. It provides a medium term direction of travel, but also means that they retain control of the narrative at each report and also can allocate resources across markets according to progress. I think it means that market will be less likely to whip the SP around based on every 6-month revenue number.

For example, they could conceivable hit the low point of the target just on Australia alone (e.g., $18m, $25m, $32m) should the growth in the international markets turn out to be more challenging. That said, it sounds like with NZ and UKI with several years under the belt and $0.9m sales, these will ramp up quite quickly as implied by the comparison slide 20.

I also like the consistency of messaging - they are expanding internationally, but gradually, with a measured and modest increase in resources. Each market is different and this measured, organic approach means that they are taking time to learn how best to operate in each market. They are going to be disciplined so that each market soon becomes cash generative. This is vastly preferrable that spending lots of money in promotional spending to launch in each market.

On supply chain

I agree that it makes sense to diversify sources.

Micro-encapsulation and packaging can easily be dual-sourced and are not capital intensive processes. So that would be a logical place to start. I don't think it signals that they have a problem, only that they have a high concentration risk in being reliant on the toll packaging manufacturer in Italy.

The active ingredients are trickier in that they are harder to change but better in that they only each impact part of the product range. In any event, these are more capital intensive, specialist facilities. $BIO's volumes are not that large. So I think the focus here would be to achieve technology transfer between different biofermenters again, so that they have dual-sourcing. That will likely raise unit costs for the active agent - so Blair will need to balance supply chain resilience with gross margins.

As the number of SKUs and number of markets grows, the picture becomes more complex. It's relatively straighforward for the active agents, as one run of a bacteria strain will supply all product markets. The complexity arises in the encapsulation and packaging stages.

$BIOs volumes will be relatively small for a long time. So I don't think this is about capacity constraints at all. For example, even at $30m annual sales (in FY27?), assuming $40 per one month pack, that's only 750,000 packs or 23 million capsules annually. (When I go back to my big pharm days, the plant I managed produced over a billion tablets and capsules and hundreds of millions of packs annually for 120 markets across all continents - so many thousands of packed variants.)

So, I think this is about Blair proactively managing supply chain security.

I haven't seen the video yet - hopefully later today.

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