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Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

From @Jimmy’s DJ Australian Equities Roundup - Market Talk 22 Jul 2024 15:12:47

Universal Store keeps its bull at UBS after the Australian fashion retailer's earnings outlook beat analyst Jarrod Chisholm's expectations. Stronger margins mean that FY 2024 underlying earnings will be about 7% higher than where Chisholm, and the broader market, had thought. Chisholm also notes that sales growth of 9.5% compares very favorably with rival Accent Group's 4.1%. He sees Universal's closure of underperforming Glue stores as a slight positive and keeps a buy rating on the stock despite a 35% rise in value so far this year. Its target price rises 8.3% to A$6.50. Shares are up 0.5% at A$5.78. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

Held IRL (1.9%)

Remorhaz
Added 4 months ago

Hi @Rick just for you :) FWIW I can see at least 5 new broker update reports for UNI in the past few days (UBS, JPM, RBC, Citi & Macquarie) - some snippets for you below


UBS: Buy PT$6.50

Trading Update: 2H24 LFL sales growth & underlying EBIT margins above expectations

Trading Update: Better than expected; risk/reward remains attractive

Following a better-than-expected trading update, with FY24E Underlying EBIT guided ~7% above UBSe/mkt (Visible Alpha) to A$46-47m driven by stronger margins, we upgrade UBSe EPS by 6%/8% in FY24E/25E. FY24E sales of A$288.5m (+9.5%) were ~in-line with mkt with slower rollout offset by strong 2H24 LFL sales (US & PS +6.8%), well ahead of expectations (UBSe +3.8%; cons +1.2%) and peer AX1 (+4.1%). Despite recent share price performance (+35% YTD), macro headwinds and elevated competitive intensity, we retain our Buy rating given the robust earnings growth outlook (+15% 3yr EPS CAGR) and undemanding valuation (~14x 1yr fwd P/E, AX1 15x)

Youth consumer, mgmt execution & rollout upside support the sales outlook

UNI LFL sales growth improved in 2H24 (1st 7wks: US +1%, PS +10.3%, CTC -0.3%; weeks 8-26: US +8.7%, PS +11.9%, CTC +7.8%) with momentum continuing in Jul-24, driven by: (1) merchant execution (improved women's inventory; L&T/PS value product catering to discerning consumers); (2) undemanding comps (2H23 -0.1% [-4.1% 2yr stack]) and strong winter trading (UNI noted 4Q strength), and; (3) a challenged competitor set. Beyond FY24E, revenue growth is supported by: (1) the resilient youth consumer per our 2Q24 deep dive; (2) execution; (3) rollout and sales/store upside, and; (4) an improving industry backdrop with competitors challenged; we expect the impact of Glue store closures to be a slight positive for UNI (+ve for landlord negotiations & site availability; -ve due to liquidation/discounting risk)

Gross margin resilience & cost mgmt drive EBIT margin expansion in FY24E/25E

Underlying EBIT margins expanded 77bps in FY24E to 16.1%, above mkt (15.2%), due to GM expansion and strong cost mgmt. We forecast 76bps of GM expansion in FY24E (59.8%) as the inclusion of CTC, higher private brand mix (PS, L&T) and sourcing improvements more than offset freight headwinds. We expect strong CODB/sales mgmt in FY24E (33.6%, -53bps) to more than offset higher labour costs (& rents). In FY25E, we expect store maturation, CODB mgmt (DC, labour & CTC optimisation) and private brand mix shift to continue driving EBIT margin expansion

Valuation: Price target raised to $6.50/share in 12mths (was $6); Retain Buy

We increase our blended (DCF, SOTP) valuation due to higher sales and EBIT margins. UNI is trading at a 1yr fwd P/E of 13.6x, a 28% discount to ASX Small Ords (18.8x, 28% avg disc since listing) and a 9% disc to key ANZ apparel peer AX1 (15.0x, 9% avg disc)


JPM: Overweight PT$6.40

UNI released a strong trading update, highlighting solid sales performance, particularly through the back end of FY24. However, the key beat vs. prior expectations was on costs, with management demonstrating strong execution on inventory and in-store cost controls. Looking forward, comps remain undemanding into 1H25, which we expect will set up the company well to deliver a positive update in August. Retain Overweight, increase PT to $6.40/sh

Beat to expectations on margin management

LFL performance solid and sustained into FY25

Store count below prior guidance

Remain Overweight, increase PT to $6.40/sh


RBC: Sector Perform PT$5.20

Our view: We have updated our model following UNI's better-than- expected FY24 result and positive FY25 trading update where EBIT margin expansion and LFL improvements were key highlights of the result

Key points:

Revenue growth largely in line with expectations. UNI is expecting FY24 revenue of $288.5 million, largely in line with pre-update consensus expectations

Strong EBIT margin expansion. UNI expects underlying EBIT in the range of $46-$47 million. At the mid-point this represents a 6.7% beat to consensus expectations and RBCe. The result implies a FY24 EBIT margin of 16.1%, 94bps ahead of consensus expectations and +80bps vs the pcp

Positive sales trends continue. In the first two weeks of FY25 UNI achieved revenue growth of +15% vs the pcp (excluding CTC wholesale). The result suggests consensus could modestly upgrade from current forecast of +11.8% in 1H25

Strong improvement in LFLs since the last update. Each brand within UNI's portfolio has seen progressive improvement in LFL sales trends over the course of 2H24; Universal store (2H24 first seven weeks LFL: 1%, 2H24: 6.6%), Perfect Stranger: (2H24 first seven weeks LFL: 10.3%, 2H24: 11.5%), CTC (retail & online): (2H24 first seven weeks: 5.4%)

Upgrading earnings and price target. We have increased our growth and margin forecasts to reflect UNI’s better-than-expected LFL’s and margins in FY24. As a result of our earnings changes, we increase our PT to $5.20/ share


Macquarie: Neutral PT$6.30

Key Points

  • A 5% beat to EBIT driven by a strong EBIT margin, +110bps ahead of expectations. We expect further cost savings going forward
  • Strong +9.7% sales growth in FY24 vs pcp driven by LFL sales growth in both Perfect Stranger and THRILLs, with Universal LFL recovering in 2H
  • We remain cautious given a tougher macro environment. Neutral


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Rick
Added 4 months ago

Thanks for the reports @Remorhaz. How do you come across all of these?

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