Had the AI agent prepped to feed through this results announcement while on the morning commute ( so good having these set up on Gemini !). So the below is mostly AI summary from my phone but will be unpacking more.

My thoughts - I was buying as many as I could over the last few weeks around 0.25 cents. All I have ever had from this org is consistent and mostly predictable results. This time it seemed the AI fear had caught the s-price and presented another opportunity. I was looking for the UK to become “self-sufficient” and the US to continue to roll out. What is getting VERY interesting now is how quick the US may overtake UK revenue. The complexity of course is the media partnerships which takes a lot of work to go through (goldfish did a great job of doing this previously). From my research - they are not burning through that media spend which gives me confidence on this story continuing to roll out. My previous valuation stands (if anything may revise upwards)

Straw: ART HY26 - The International Flipping Point

Thesis: ART has successfully "exported" its capital-light playbook. We are approaching a structural flipping point where international segments transition from "costs" to "growth engines."

1. UK: Maturity & Self-Sufficiency

The UK is no longer a speculative bet; it’s a mature-scale marketplace.

• Performance: +92% YoY Revenue growth (local currency).

• The "Stand Alone" Status: By leveraging the Channel 4 media-for-equity deal, ART has scaled without high cash burn. The UK is now approaching EBITDA breakeven. Once hit, Australian cash flow (approx. $15M/year) can be fully diverted from "subsidizing the UK" to "fueling the US."

2. US: The Miami "Alpha" Case Study

The US is growing from a low base, but with higher velocity than the UK’s early days.

• Miami Hub: Task postings in Miami grew 3x faster than the rest of the US this half. This proves the "City Hub" strategy (dominating high-density cities like Miami/Dallas) is repeatable.

• iHeartMedia Catalyst: Access to $10M+ in "free" advertising allows for massive brand scaling while preserving the $10M cash war chest.

3. The Overtake: US vs. UK Trajectory

The US is scaling faster due to hub density and massive media reach.

Once again they are hitting the key metrics and slightly better than I expected without being outstanding. For point 3 above , a quick calculation (need to validate) is that US revenue could overtake UK as soon as FY27 or early FY28 which is not something I had considered until now.

Disc : I own the shares and has been by far my best historical returns - so a good dose of Bias and belief in management

First straw after recently joining premium so go easy....the actual first trade on strawman was a while back purchasing airtasker for around $0.46. Continued to purchase on the way down being a very happy buyer at $0.16 recently in my personal portfolio. Hopefully we can get more posts on the company on strawman moving forward.

bull case

I believe the company ticks a lot of boxes, high level of founder ownership / founder led. No net debt, expanding into new markets after becoming profitable in AUS. In the recent reporting season, the day the company announced the share price did not move - they take a measured approach, there is slower growth but also become cash flow positive in the near future. Like many tech companies last year, they cut employment costs / staff which has helped with the above.

forecast

extrapolating the recent HY numbers out to June 2024 I have EBITDA of ~$4 MIL. This grows steadily with true free cash flow coming later in FY 2026. A lot of assumptions in these numbers at this point granted, but a good point to start an intrinsic value model to support the thesis. Will continue to refine the model as more financials flow through with actual profit figures.

The terminal value I have used is 291,669 which is high and will likely revert back to the EBITDA multiple 7.5x which is the $173,025.

Would have expected fair value for airtasker to be around $0.36, however the current valuation, based on the 451.8 MIL shares on issue is $0.46 or approx. a 60% premium to the current $0.28 price. May be overcooking this and will continue to refine and provide an update once the QTRLY cash flows are scrutinised further. While it felt obvious to buy around $0.16-$0.17, the share price recently got to $0.34 before selling off. Aware the below valuation is a little stretched however I believe it will get there at some point in the next 24-36 months and this is a long term story.

Things to continue to monitor:-

• UK expansion via media agreement. This was how they achieved 20x growth in Australia - the agreement has given them $6.7Mil in advertising with other strategic initiatives. US is an unknown and could be a bonus, however they need to do well in the UK primarily.
• Gross margin per sale.
• Recently cash position has fallen back around $5 MIL, not sure is this is due to timing or planned inflection point.
• Free cash flow beyond FY24.
• The market may believe that airtasker will be caught up in gig-economy / ride share labour laws in the near future.
• Rebooking rates / time between bookings (one of the biggest challenges).

Will post some more detail on airtasker in the near future.

Good to be part of strawman for real.