What AYA Does

Artrya (ASX: AYA) is a medical technology company developing AI software to detect and assess coronary artery disease from CT coronary angiography scans. Its Salix platform has three modules: Salix Coronary Anatomy (FDA and TGA cleared), Salix Coronary Plaque (FDA cleared in Aug 2025 and expected to be the main revenue driver (approx 70%)), and Salix Coronary Flow (still in development).

How They Make Money

The model is software-as-a-service with fees charged per scan. With FDA approvals for Anatomy and Plaque now achieved, the next steps are establishing reimbursement pathways and scaling hospital partnerships. A new Category I CPT code for AI plaque analysis is expected to take effect from January 2026, which would allow providers to bill payers directly and open the door for wider adoption.

Traction So Far

Artrya has signed its first US commercial agreement with Tanner Health, a five-year deal worth around US$0.6m, initially tied to the Anatomy module and with Plaque to be added now that clearance is in place. More integrations with US hospitals are in progress i would assume.

Market Size and Revenue Scenarios

Medicare data suggests around 119,000 CCTA scans were performed in 2022, with commercial insurers adding significantly more on top. If Artrya captures even a modest slice of this market and receives, say, US$150–300 per scan:

• 25,000 scans/year → US$3.8–7.5m revenue

• 50,000 scans/year → US$7.5–15m

• 100,000 scans/year → US$15–30m

Management

Chairman Bernie Ridgeway previously led Imdex (ASX: IMD) for nearly two decades, growing it from a small cap into a global mining technology business with revenue over A$270m and a market cap north of A$1bil. That track record shows he knows how to scale a niche technology globally. CEO John Konstantopoulos, who took over in July 2025, is tasked with driving US commercialisation and prior to AYA he was the Global Industry Leader for Electronics at IBM. John holds nearly 10% of the shares from what I could see.

Competition

The main competitors are HeartFlow, Cleerly, and Elucid, all of which also have AI plaque or flow offerings. This confirms there is a genuine market but also highlights how contested it is. Artrya’s edge is being entirely cloud-based, which avoids extra hardware and integrates directly into hospital workflows. Another potential advantage is speed: results can be produced within minutes, which is faster than some rivals that rely on more complex modelling and slower turnaround times. Whether this advantage translates into meaningful adoption will come down to accuracy, reimbursement, and ease of integration.

Bull Case

Artrya has cleared key nearly all it's regulatory hurdles, a new reimbursement code is on the horizon, and it has begun converting partnerships into commercial contracts (well one!). With strong management and a very large addressable market, scaling to hundreds of thousands of scans annually could translate into tens or even hundreds of millions in annual revenue.

Bear Case

The company is still pre-revenue and burning cash. It must prove hospitals will adopt at scale once reimbursement lands, and that its product can stand out against well-funded competitors. If adoption is slower than expected or pricing is pressured, further capital raises may be needed and the upside case would be delayed.

Held only in SM, I decided to buy some WTC in RL over this.