Below are my skeletal journal notes for AYA.

DYOR - held in RL

Product

• Cloud-based AI analysis of CCTA scans in < 10 mins at point of care
• SOLIX Coronary Anatomy is the platform - every patient - USD50 revenue
• SOLIX Coronary Plaque = plaque report - 70% of patients - USD750 revenue
• SOLIX Coronary Flow = heart flow report - 35% of patients - USD 800 revenue

NOTE: This, imo, is an example of AI (machine learning actually - no such thing as artificial intelligence) migrating up the tech stack. This, imo, will be where investors will see the best returns over the cycle. Not GPUs or data centres...

FDA/CTP CAT codes

• Anatomy & Plaque FDA approved
• Flow in submission process
• CTP CAT 1 already in place: Platform USD325, Plaque - USD950, Flow USD1017

Current Adoption

• Tanner Health operational - SOLIX Plaque just FDA approved to revenue kicks on from here...
• Cone & NE Georgia in progress towards integration

Key differentiator

• Turns health providers' CCTA scans into profit centre (AYA charge less than reimbursement)
• PII stays locked in providers system
• Competitors require CCTA data to be sent to them for human analysis and charge more than reimbursement

TAM

• Current 3 commercial partners, Tanner, Cone & NE Georgia approx 14,000 scans pa
• SAPPHIRE study partners approx 400,000 scans pa
• 1.5 - 2m scans pa in USA - say 30% share = 500-700,000 tickets for AYA
• Platform (100% of patients): 500,000 x USD50 = USD 25m pa
• Plaque (70% of patients): 350,000 x USD750 = USD262.5m pa
• Flow (50% of patients): 175,000 x USD800 = USD140m pa
• Total USD427.5m pa = AUD650m pa (AUDUSD 0.6500)

M/ment skin in game

• Founder-led - Konstantopoulos 9%
• Barrington - 7.7%
• Other BOD - 3%
• Total: approx 20%

Earnings quality

• High when achieved - SaaS
• Should lead to high ROA which can be retained on the BS, reinvested to grow the footprint whilst increasing margins and ROA

Capital Structure

• SOI: 114m MC $200m Cash: $11m

Key Milestones

• FDA approval for flow - submission end CY2025 approval Mar 2025
• Firming up SAPPHIRE participants - each party will be announced when locked in
• Commercial go ahead for Cone & NE Georgia systems
• First sale of SOLIX Coronary Plaque
• Guidance for break-even beginning FY2027

Price Target

• AVG MC/revenue multiple for ASX listed SaaS stocks = 4-8 (say 6x)
• 6 x AUD650m = AUD3.9bn
• Allow 50% dilution = AUD3.9bn/150m = AUD26
• Time frame: 5+ years