Chart Update thurs 11th July 24
Boy, any stocks that are bullish at the moment, you would put in the Very bullish category, Take Drone Shield and Catapult for example. These 2 stock just haven’t retraced back to what are considered historic Fibonacci levels at all.
It looks like we are seeing a really nice impulsive w(i) of w3 up (I like to ses that). As you know my rule for entry is seeing the 1st 1/2, (i)/(ii) up, then enter as its just climbing out of the bottom of w(ii). That said let me put some numbers to that. It should drop back to 1.83 - 1.88 for w(ii) (as long as it stops today at 1.97 ish which it should). See if targets move ahead more than expected, then so too do the retraces they make.
So once I see what I believe to be the bottom of the next retrace down ( that determined by seeing it starting to climb of its bottom) then I will buy here. That should be around the $1.90 price and ill then put an alert for approx 1.80 in case it drops back below my purchase price. If it drops to this alert then I will re evaluate my decision to stay in or not.
Chart Update Mon 1st July 2024
Well Cat is finally starting its pull back for the 4th wave down. Todays candle is very aggresive to the downside. You can see my target box with the bottom being in the range 1.56 - 1.67. It may not go as low as the 1.56 (or 38.2% of the last wave 3 as a rule) as it's still a bullish stock. Just have to see how it plays out.
Drop for w4 before starting wave 5 up.
Is w3 up finished, hard to tell right now. It may push back up to the $2 mark however im now focused on wave 4 down to add again to my remaining position. My next target is the 1.55 - 1.67 target box. I will state though that wave 4 is usually a drawn out wave before it starts wave up. Wave 4 can be so long it can produce fake break outs to the up side then to fall away again. I sold out 3/4 of my position at the recent top and now have the last 1/4 there to add to again at the bottom of wave 4 providing me with a buffer.
I know a lot here leave the bulk of the stock and only sell out small portions. For me however I cant do that as Im getting in on this stock towards the top of a cycle, so I build then take & repeat. If I had got in back in say May 2023 ish for around the 0.65 - 0.70, then I would be playing the long game like yourselves. On the next major pull back which will be somewhere after wave 5, I will enter for more of a long play then.
I got out as last Friday's bar was above/outside the Bollinger Bands, meaning it was at an extreme of more than 2 standard deviations from the norm and also because it hit my Fib target (actually broke above it) and was showing signs late friday afternoon before close that the orders were staking up to get out. I had been watching the order book (buy and sales as well as the size of the orders).
Ill keep an eye on the chart and update as it plays out.
Its gone a bit lower than id like however look at yesterdays last candle on the hr chart
Lots of volume sold, however it was gobbled up resulting in a pin bar bottom. Kets hope for the rise hey.
Im looking to add more. The way this is setting up with an AB in place, Im feeling there's a reasonable chance it will have another leg down for the C wave where I will be adding more to my position. Of course you could all break my thesis as Im letting you all in on my game plan however I hope your Volumes wont be to big to destroy it for me. :)
Here is the 30m Chart to show you my thoughts
Good luck all
Yesterday confirmed my thought as it tested the 15 on the 1day chart though wasnt successful and also showed the dreaded gap on the stochastic between current movements (white line) and the longer term trend (yellow Line). It pulled back quiet hard on yesterday’s daily candle and seems to have now started the 5 wave C wave down. Im expecting a target now of 1.36 - 1.30 at worst. 1.36 is my target however we will see how the bars form over the next 3 days.
Tuesday's 1D chart around 12pm before the drop back
The Green circle on the stochastic and the low volume on the last green bar shown above suggested it would drop.
Wednesday mornings (todays) chart
& the 1hr for more detail showing the 5 waves down
Looking at the 1hr chart here it also make me feel it could just bounce around in between the 50 and 200 then explode up, so it might not even make it down to my target. Again who knows, Ill wait for some confirmation before I make any solid decision
Thats my game plan.
Good luck all
MMM careful here. Its sitting in the wave iv zone and usually w(iv) is extended. Im seeing a possible ABC pattern here which would take use down to the 1.30 ish area. So im still hanging out for an entry Just my opinion.
1hr chart
MMMM well lately its has been a little difficult to pick the movements and how they will end up panning out. For now Im still seeing a short term down side. Here's what my charts are looking like for now
1 hour chart
So my target is somewhere in the 1.47 to 1.41 range.
That range coincidentally also converges with the 15 sma, & support (the Pink horizontal line and my wave IV zone on my 3day chart. MMM nice set up if it makes it there.
3Day chart
Here's the kicker. You can see the thin blue rising trendline just under todays candle on the 1hr chart. That is forming a consilidattion triangle. If it doesn’t drop below that today ish then it may push higher and not play out my declining wedge pattern shown in Yellow. Again, I will say, Im not sure on direction and will just have to watch and see. Im not putting a larger position on as yet until I have better confirmation of which is going to play out. (also not Jeffries has recently put a price target on for 1.90 which is at the top of my next target box for w3)
Also Im away for anyone who is reading my thoughts so wont post all the time. However I am watching each day and will let you know if I make any decisive moves.
Good luck all
Helllllo Catapult (a nice update)
Well that one dragged on and approx a week ago I wasnt certain if there would be another small leg down to my anticipated box marked (V) on the charts. I have missed out before getting the bottom, hence why I bought in a start position at the green horizontal line. Glad I did after this mornings move.
You will notice the white horizontal dashed line just above the pink horizontal support line. This is where wave ii should have fallen to historically. It never quite got there, again showing a bullish sentiment and boy has it popped. I expect it to climb to the top of the rising Channel into my wave iii target box and also coincidentally Jefferies Brokerage price target however I'm going to build a bigger position on the pull back to wave iv. I will probably skim off the 10% or so profit @ wave iii however I will leave the original position there for the add too at the wave iv for the next big leg to wave v of wave 3.
Good luck all
Im starting to layer in a position, here's why.
1Day chart
30m Chart
Ignor the last green bar up on the 30m chart after I took this screen shot, that was me starting my position. See timiing is impossible really though I do have targets and Im now conflicted if this is the bottom or we still have another small wave 5 down to go. So im staring to build my position. I think the graphs above show everything Im thinking. I do believe it will soon move up with some energy.
The circle on the stochastic indicator on the 1d shows the current (white line) to be above the Yellow (longer term 30m position) which is point pointing down. Thats the only reason I see another drop coming to approx. $1.19 - $1.16. There is a lot of support between 1.13 to 1.19 with moving averages and a historic Support level in there as well.
The market has also been pre empting reporting season lately and building up positions before hand incase of a good report (Drone Sheild, hence why it dropped on a great report, they pumped it up too far).
If this plays out how I expect it to then I will be adding substantially to my position taken today and will be holding much longer term to ride the 3rd, historically the largest, wave up.
Good luck all hope this gives some insight from a technicals perspective.
Update on Cat charts
This is a bullish stock im also hungry to be part of. We can all see by the agressive moves up over the last year and is playing nicely to my targets so far. It has almost satisfied my rules when it finds this next bottom (wave(ii) of the larger wave3) and I will be layering in a sizeable position with a hard stop loss below. My target should be @ the $1.12 SP however when its a bullish stock as this one is, they dont always make it to my targets and proceed to rocket up before reaching them. I will probably take a smallish position before it reaches my target then layer in once I see that its heading up as I predict. Its a fluid choice of course and will take it day by day.
The next wave up (wave3 of 5) is going to be great and is usually the most bullish of any 5 wave structure. As you can see Jeffries (brokerage firm) has a target of $1.50 however I feel it may go even higher (wait and see) See my updated charts below.
Good luck everyone.
Update on CAT. Thought I would update the charts for cat as it drove higher than my last post (should have seen that coming as it was pushing for the top of the incline channel). So looking at it now it seems to be in a side ways consolidating period. Im still waiting for a retrace back for wave (ii) down to aprox 50% of the last wave marking somewhere around 1.14 my new revised target after it pushing higher than i originally thought. I have noted Bell Porter has down graded Cat from BUY to HOLD confirming my thoughts of an impending retrace. So here is what my charts looks like now.
I have put alerts on it for the bottom pink support line (and coincidently the 50% mark of the last big wave) and also on the 50sma on the 1 day chart to alert me its heading in my target direction. FYI im looking to enter on the next major pull back. Ill let you know when it gets down there as to my udated plans
I have been watching CAT for a while now and is finally getting close to my buy set up so thought I would up date you all. So far it has performed perfectly to my target zones and is behaving to my Fib levels spot on. Today it should reach the upper end of wave (i) on the chart @ $1.25 and the retrace to approximately the 1.03 - 1.07 zone for wave (ii) before starting the next large wave (iii) taking us up to the 1.50 - 1.64 zone of wave (iii). Ill update you all when it reachs the wave (ii) zone on my thoughts then although I will be looking to enter around there with a hard stop just below.