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Last edited 2 months ago
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#Financials
Last edited 2 months ago

Sunrice released their financial update.

Seems like a good update. Despite challenges, debt got reduced.

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My reasons were selling was not the business itself, but the shareholder structure in which farmers had to maintain a holding was hard to understand. I thought having farmers as shareholders meant there could be lots of inside information not privy to the general investor. An example would be a bad growing season due to poor weather which possibly could make a farmer sell some shares. That's just my thoughts so I could be wrong.

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There is also the vesting arrangements that will come into effect in a few of years where Ricegrowers will lose the right to export rice in the Northern rivers although I think the impact will be small given the business has now diversified into other areas and revenue from other businesses has grown.

Finally I don't usually buy the Sunrice brand but usually what is cheaper in the shop..

I suppose if you can get past the shareholder structure, the cyclical nature of growing rice amid climate change and want a large dividend then maybe can't go wrong here.

As usual I sold too soon after getting a bit impatient by the price stagnating. Oh well, at least I did not sell at the lows last year (6.25).

Full link if anyone is interested.


#Risks
Added 3 months ago

Sunrice could potentially lose export rights for rice grown in the Northern rivers to independent growers as part of the review on vesting arrangements by the NSW government.

News sounds bearish but the share price still keeps getting bid and holding at the end of the day. Seems like someone thinks this piece of legislation will unlikely happen.

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[not held]

#Risks
stale
Added 2 years ago

Sunrice/Ricegrowers CEO Resigns.

Strangely didn't see the share price tank today like Elders

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Also appears the interim dividend was maintained. But the total dividend all up was a slight drop from last year. (40c v 43c)

Another interesting fact is although the share price has underperformed and slightly below my cost price, I am still in positive territory after adding up all the dividends I've received.

[held]

#Risks
stale
Added 2 years ago

Due to the floods in the Riverina region, it looks like lots of selling in past week. Being a coop, hard to say who but my guess is some rice farmers could be selling.

Someone was willing to offer at 6.30 on the final match and my top up got filled on the dying minutes of trade.

May or maynot be a good idea buying here but we shall see. The yield is too hard to resist.

Hopefully the people around the Riverina will recover quickly.

[held]

#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 2 years ago

Presentation to the Australian Rice Growers’ Conference - link

At around 435m market cap, this food business is not small and upside is limited versus a small cap. But for a business this size with so much scale this is still ignored by the market.

Share structure which was mentioned in the last straw. A major headwind for the share price as holdings of rice growers and maximum holding limits makes it hard for institutions/funds to build a large position. Investors would however benefit from the high dividend instead (now paid twice a year from once a year)

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Already aware of the supply crisis around the world ex-Australia

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Ricegrowers global supply/demand network - economies of scale???

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Supplying to the heavily drought-affected United States

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Potential new markets - UK post brexit.

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Supply is no issue for now. With China restricting exports of Japonica rice to the world, could ricegrowers capitalise on this lucrative export market?

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Brand awareness with Poh:

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Issues: Water and sustainability

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Issues: Still a price-taker but with drought happening in other markets at a time when rice consumption continues to grow maybe an inflection point will be reached soon...

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Finally there is the question of what happens when the above average east coast rainfall disappears and we are in drought? The 50% reduction in water usage might not mean a thing unless there is a secure supply of water even during drought times.

[Held]


#Industry/competitors
stale
Added 2 years ago

Rice production around the world affected by drought /low rainfall

South East Asia

USA

Europe

Fortunately there has been above average rainfall around Australia which would be a positive for rice production here and sales for Ricegrowers.

I think this view is still under the radar.

My only negative is the confusing share structure of Ricegrowers in which rice farmers must hold at least 3000 shares and are free to exit their position when they leave the industry which doesn't help the price.

[Held]

#Financials
stale
Added 2 years ago

EPS up 123%

One bit of good news in my real portfolio. Held this through the negative drawdowns after the Covid peak.

Overall can't fault this report from Ricegrowers. Having said that I think not many people understand how co-ops work (I admit I don't understand too) and hence the discount (470m market cap)

Strangely the price of rice has fallen back to USD 16123 CWT but the share price has kept rallying up till this report.

Having said that, this looks like a very diversified food business now and not just a primary producer business/co-op (whatever you want to call it)

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Cash is still positive ($24m v $39m) despite the most recent acquisition of Pryde feeds.

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[held]


#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Just an observation that I've noticed Ricegrowers tend to go up during lockdowns when people start buyinig a bit more than usual (ie: hoarding).

This is despite Ricegrowers stating in their results that they have been impacted by Covid-19 restrictions since some of their products are exported overseas.

Their latest results also reflect a challenging environment with a reduction in growth due to Covid and climate impacts (ie: rainfall/water) although it wasn't as bad as the company and some analysts had feared.

I thought this would be a good buy earlier since I thought there would be positive impacts with economies reopening and supply chains being unlocked. However the latest lockdown and the climate impact is a bit of concern and it will be interesting to see how they address the issue regarding rainfall and water use.