Straws are discrete research notes that relate to a particular aspect of the company. Grouped under #hashtags, they are ranked by votes.
A good Straw offers a clear and concise perspective on the company and its prospects.
Please visit the forums tab for general discussion.
Revised weighting to Bear Case
The Good
The Not So Good
Watch Status
Sell
Valuation Status
Increase in the bear case likelihood.
Pentanet ends the day up 80% at 9c. At one point hit 11c. $14M in trades with over 110M shares changing hands out of the total of 374M. This follows an announcement about Geforce NOW which didn't seem to be that significant.
A long way off my purchase on SM of 79c! in 21
PENTANET EXTENDS GEFORCE NOW ALLIANCE AGREEMENT WITH NVIDIA FOR CLOUD GAMING IN AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND. The Agreement now formally recognises New Zealand as a serviceable territory, with a pathway to add neighbouring territories. It also allows Pentanet to continue being the exclusive distributor of GeForce NOW in Australia. Since launch, Pentanet has amassed 530,000+ GeForce NOW Powered by CloudGG members, serviced by infrastructure located in Perth and Sydney. The Company now also has a solid base of paid memberships, effectively covering the fixed monthly recurring costs incurred in the early stages when the service was launched. The cloud gaming market in Australia is projected to experience significant growth in the coming years. Pentanet Managing Director, Mr Stephen Cornish, said, “Now that we have demonstrated success with Nvidia, we are moving to a Capex deployment model more in-line with our requirements, and retain a first right of refusal to continue being the sole distributor for GFN in Australia. With over half a million members now part of the CloudGG ecosystem, Pentanet continues to demonstrate the growing appetite for cloud gaming in our territory.”
The GFNA agreement has no finite term and is ongoing. • Pentanet Limited is able to extend its GFNA exclusivity in Australia in six-month increments for each additional purchase of $1.5m USD in GFN POD infrastructure.
Should Pentanet not extend exclusivity, it will have first right of refusal to re-engage exclusivity, by placing a non-cancellable purchase order of GFN POD infrastructure within 30 days notice of a third-party competing offer to deploy the GFN service in Australia.
The Good
There potentially has been some manipulation of expenses to reach this for the quarter (prepaid bills from last quarter) but generally the business has been trending in the right direction (slowly)
The Not So Good
Watch Status
Slight Improvement
Valuation Status
Annualised Figures
What to Watch
The Good
The Not So Good
Product Review - Petanet - All Services
What Status
What to Watch
EBITDA positive in June....actually did something they said they would.
Expected to continue FY24
Couple catalysts including Gen 3 gaming launch together with Optus launch - 1H24
continued roll-out of 5g towers -- 4 complete, need 8 to launch product but using capacity to sign on traditional on-net customers
Nexus rollout strategy under review
$9.9m cash balance
market seems to be like it....seems like the tide is turning at last
After insisting at 35c and at 30c and at 25c and at 20c that they don't need to raise money, I am suitably annoyed at the outcome here. 25% dilution could have been avoided. What a joke!
Unfortunately very much in the red at these levels, and valuation considerably lower. Hopefully they actually pull one out the bag now and execute.
CR at all time lows. Unfortunately they didn’t use the SP bounce following the announcements @Bear77 posted to raise but raised at 8.3c a 19% discount for a 25% dilution. Hard to see how the infrastructure spend is going to pay back in the near future with a 24 month roll out to a potential 20,000 subscribers. The lifetime value of these subscribers has been estimated at approximately ~$7k (no timeframe given) generating an additional $140M, with a market cap of $26M and 5G bandwidth licenses it could be up for a buyout or a burn out. Claiming no further raise needed to reach positive cash flow.
Targeting to roll out 24 towers over the next 24 months. The objective is to expand on-net coverage by 20,000 premises, focusing on increasing capacity in key strategic sites first. Utilising the Company's extensive database of prospective subscribers and targeted marketing in areas of new capacity,
Funds raised by the Company should enable it to reach operating break-even and cash flow positive.
• Proceeds of the placement (~$6.1 million) and share purchase plan offer ($2.5 million) will be applied towards:
o Telecommunications infrastructure ($4.9 million)
o 5G spectrum ($1.6 million)
o Working capital and costs of the offer ($2.1 million)
Held in SM
07-March-2023: I hold a small position in Pentanet (5GG) IRL and it's also either the smallest or one of the smallest positions in my Strawman.com virtual portfolio here.
Here's yesterday's announcement:
06-March-2023: 8:48am: Pentanet--Cambium-to-join-forces-in-accelerating-5G.PDF
On the back of that, Pentanet (5GG) rose +22.22% (+3c to close at 16.5c, and 16.5c was also their day-high-price).
Today they followed that up with:
07-March-2023: 9:37am: Pentanet-enters-into-agreement-with-Optus-for-cloud-gaming.PDF
Well stick a saddle on them and try to hold on, coz they were off!! They peaked at 28c/share during the day - which is +70% higher than yesterday's close (of 16.5c) and +107.4% higher than Friday's close (of 13.5c). However, they closed way down at 18c, only +9.09% up for the day (and one third [+33.333%] higher than Friday's close).
I was trying to buy more here during the past week because last Monday and Tuesday (the last two days of Feb) they closed at 12c/share, and that looked pretty cheap to me. When they rose +22% yesterday I cancelled that buy order.
After the market closed today they released two more announcements:
07 March-2023: 4:08pm: Pentanet-enters-into-agreement-with-Optus-(Amended).PDF [they added some material terms to their earlier announcement]; and
07-March-2023: 6:08pm: Pentanet-to-present-at-upcoming-conference.PDF
Good-O! Let's see what tomorrow brings...
Further Reading:
28-Feb-2023: 8:02am: Pentanet-Interim-Results-Announcement.PDF
The Pentanet Lamborghini Aventador: The Pentanet Aventador.... - Diamond Detailing Perth | Facebook
Internet Provider Perth - nbn™ Plans & Fixed Wireless | Pentanet
Plain Text Link: https://pentanet.com.au/
SP has been hammered of late and the Network as a Service expansion with Cambium may help them keep the lights on although at a 13.3% interest rate, ouch!
PENTANET AND CAMBIUM TO JOIN FORCES IN ACCELERATING THE 5G NETWORK ROLLOUT
The proposal will give Pentanet a flexible way to deploy 5G network infrastructure under a NaaS solution, without the need for upfront CAPEX costs. 5G Fixed hardware will be purchased as a fixed monthly subscription instead of higher upfront capital expenditure, which will assist Pentanet in spreading its CAPEX profile for the 5G network expansion plans over future years.
This will ensure that Pentanet is able to meet customer demand and extract more value from existing infrastructure by increasing coverage and speeds in key strategic areas, expanding its suite of high-margin on-net wireless service capacity.
The 5G service will increase our offering and capacity, heightening our ability to service and add more on-net users at a higher rate.”
KEY TERMS UNDER THE MOU:
Under the NaaS proposal, Cambium will provide Pentanet with a variable financing facility worth up to $5.95m for Pentanet’s 5G rollout plan, including hardware, cnMaestro X, software updates and the option for technical support as a monthly service. •
Pentanet will own the hardware on the conclusion of that specific equipment’s repayments.
The network infrastructure bundle will be funded over a four-year term at an annual interest rate of 13.3%. •
Pentanet will be required to pay a proportionate down payment as they add equipment to the NaaS model. • At any point throughout the term, Pentanet can settle any remaining outstanding amount owed to Cambium ‘in part’ or in total, net of future interest.
The Good
The Not So Good
What to Watch
10 year view
includes $15m cap raise FY24 to fund rollout + $5m debt facility
11% wacc, 3% terminal g/r
EBITDA positive FY25
Pentanet doubling down on the cloud gaming sector bringing the next level of NVIDIA devices to the market in 2023 and adding NZ to the territory. More debt but could pay off with a bigger potential premium market if the tech works well. Mention of neXus issues in AGM speech but little detail and suggests roll out stalled until solutions rolled out.
As with the implementation of all new technologies, the initial deployment of neXus presented some initial technical challenges in the first phase of commercial launch, . Those issues are now being addressed with solutions being implemented across the already-installed subscriber base during this quarter, so that we can move ahead in 2023 with further deployment to those who registered an interest for the new service.
Pentanet continuing collaboration with NVIDIA
New Zealand to be formally recognized as a Pentanet serviceable territory, with a pathway to additional neighbouring territories Pentanet to bring the GeForce NOW RTX 3080 tiers to Australia in 2023
The Company will continue investing in the next-generation cloud gaming infrastructure by purchasing the RTX 3080 SuperPODs funded by the 5-year term Westpac Banking Corporation loan facilities.
Set to launch in 2023, the RTX 3080 membership gives users access to a dedicated 3080 GPU in the cloud, which provides a significant performance boost over the existing GeForce NOW subscription tier and further access to more of the cloud gaming market, with the GeForce NOW RTX 3080 enabling games to run up to 4K 60FPS or 1440p at 120FPS on PC and Mac, 4K HDR at 60FPS on NVIDIA SHIELD® TV, and up to 120 FPS on select Android devices.
The Good
The Not So Good
What to Watch
So Pentanet has finally moved to start trying to nudge its users into paid subscriptions for GeforceNow. (See @laoshi's straw) After a year in service they have reached “nearly a quarter of a million gamers”. The number wasn't given this time unlike other announcements.
After pretty lack luster revenue figures for the service announced in the annual report, it will be telling to see if the new tiers can improve the numbers.
Gaming revenue for H2FY22 was $300k, if you take 6 months of full membership ($120) this gives around 2500 paying users. Total user count at the start of the half was 58,000. This then comes out at an estimate of ~ 4% paying users which is flawed as it assumes no additional users started paying for the service during the half, so the number is likely lower. So where to from here?
The price point of the new plans is actually quite reasonable. With the array of streaming services available to people these days, another $20 / month is a solid hit, whereas $4 is much more easy to justify and squarely targeted at someone like myself who doesn’t have time to game much anymore so doesn’t own a gaming rig but still would like to give some of the new titles a go.
What I see that may impact conversions, is the free tier is still available and not limited after a trial period or if they are successful at moving people onto the $4 plan, but then the wait times become significant again and it then forces people off the service rather than up the subscription tiers to skip the wait times.
Given the new pricing has started right at the end of the quarter, there should be a clean set of numbers coming up for Q2 to identify the success of the new subscription tiers.
Article in West Australian drew my attention to another Perth based company also involved in Cloud gaming but mainly seems to be in Asia and working with telcos on more basic family friendly cloud gaming. Reviews of the Blacknut offering do not compare to Geforce now but they are partnered with AMD and could be a better scalable market. Currently private but would seem a good fit for Pentanet.
Radian Arc, a Perth-based edge infrastructure provider is helping telco monetize 5G with cloud gaming, but is turning its sights on enterprise applications.
• Radian Arc’s built for purpose edge infrastructure and partner marketplace could offer a template for a CAPEX free way for telcos to monetize 5G.
Radian Arc, founded only in 2020, is making a name for itself in the emerging cloud gaming industry
Radian Arc is focused exclusively on delivering their infrastructure at the edge of telecom operator networks.
In the cloud gaming space Radian Arc operates a B2B2C model where the company partners with cloud gaming platforms to sell gaming services to end customers through the telcos. To telcos Radian Arc provides GPU edge infrastructure, limited storage, and connectivity into partner gaming clouds on an operating expenses (OPEX) basis with the main thrust being 5G or fiber network monetization. The telcos then can sell cloud gaming as an additional service to their end customers, on a revenue share basis with the gaming provider. Hosting the GPU close to end users provides better performance compared to leveraging a regional public cloud, and Radian Arc has a partnership with chipmaker AMD to use its gaming optimized chips in its platforms. So far Radian Arc has nearly a dozen operator customers across Australia, Southeast Asia, Middle East, and South America. For example, In Malaysia, Celcom leverages Radian Arc’s infrastructure to deliver cloud gaming from Blacknut for its end customers.
"As we continue to expand access to cloud gaming around the world, we want to find partners who can elevate our service offerings to telcos and improve the gaming experiences we provide to players," said David Cook, CEO of Radian Arc. "The collaboration will also look into possibilities for future applications leveraging TM's extensive network coverage, allowing us and Blacknut to improve the quality of cloud gaming for customers in Malaysia and the surrounding regions."
The Good
The Not So Good
What to Watch
Quarterly highlights - on net has slowed considerably, resulting in slight drop in gm. Looks like this will be offset in Q1 by nexus - had 240 applications for sign up since late june which is strong, and have added total 580 meshy bois/11600 sub points. Arpu steady. Geforce now over 200k users but no new tiers yet, still just talk. $13m cash. Outlook confident.
Next quarter will be vital, if can show good growth in nexus AND revenue this should rerate.
Pentanet signs up infrastucture to continue neXus roll out in WA.
Pentanet has entered into Master Access Agreement with Axicom Pty Ltd in support of the planned network expansion. Axicom has a national footprint of 1858 towers across Australia, with over 110 towers in Perth and 180 towers in Western Australia.
Under the terms of the new Master Access Agreement, the licence terms of all existing site licences have been extended for a period of 10 years from the Master Access Agreement Commencement Date 1 July 2022 with an option to extend by a further five years.
The signing of the agreement will give rise to an additional $4.7m of lease liabilities and rightof-use assets.
Pentanet Managing Director, Mr Stephen Cornish, said, “The signing of this agreement assists in the next phase of growth plans with Axicom, to enable neXus and 5G products to be rolled out across the rest of their network in Western Australia.
A little bit of a search of current 5G & NBN plan comparisons to Pentatnets freshly announced Nexus offering. At the current promotional pricing it seems that it is a reasonable value proposition, after that period not as much unless you are a user who is after the highest speed internet plans. As this is likely targeted towards gamers, I think that Pentanet may end up bundling Geforce Now with the Nexus internet plans as a bit of a cross promotion.
Nexus
Telstra 5G - Nexus faster / Telstra cheaper but wide speed range
Optus 5G - Nexus Faster / Optus cheaper and includes Netflix
Aussie Broadband - NBN - Speeds similar / Nexus Cheaper
5GG-23-June-2022-Pentanet-launches-neXus,-Perths-next-gen-wireless-network.PDF
Pentanet Limited (ASX:5GG) has achieved a significant milestone today with the commercial launch of neXus, the Company’s next-generation intelligent mesh wireless network for Perth.
Pentanet’s neXus, exclusive to Pentanet, delivers an ultra high-speed wireless internet connection through the air using an innovative mesh technology.
To date, the Operation neXus campaign has generated over 11,000 registrations of interest from people in the community keen to become part of the network. The expression of interest phase was used to determine areas of demand and lay the foundation for scaling coverage density across the Perth metro area. The Pentanet field team is continuing the targeted infrastructure rollout with neXus now available in Aveley, Ellenbrook, Osborne Park, Doubleview, Wangara, Pearsall, Nollamara, Yokine, Canning Vale, Padbury, Glendalough, Woodlands, Innaloo Scarborough, and Duncraig. In addition, Wanneroo, Balcatta, Stirling, Trigg, Morley, and Mindarie are anticipated to go live by end July 2022.
Pentanet has launched the premium Hell Fast plan offering for neXus, with unlocked speeds and unlimited data for $129 per month on a 12-month contract with a $0 installation fee and a Wi-Fi 6 Prism Edge router. To celebrate the official launch of neXus, the $129 Hell Fast plan will be available for just $99 per month, and customers can lock in this price for the lifetime of their neXus service. This offer will only be available for a limited time.
Pentanet Managing Director, Mr Stephen Cornish, said, “It’s taken us a significant amount of time and engineering resources to develop the technology into a product that can be commercialised at scale. But we said we would, and here it is - Pentanet doing Pentanet things. We believe the neXus technology will be disruptive to telecommunications and, after much research and deliberation, we have landed on an early adoption price point that we feel will also be disruptive and generate the growth in demand needed to support further expansion of existing coverage.”
--- click on the file link above to read the remainder of the announcement ---
Disclosure: I hold 5GG shares.
I have been trying to get a better understanding of the gaming side of 5GG and I just came across a few videos from Garry Rollo from the Montgomery small cap fund who is clearly pretty keen on the potential of 5GG. These videos were from late last year but still have good information in them. This is the first time I have seen the CEO talk and I like that he is clearly a gamer himself and is building the company to address the gaming niche.
14-10-21 Short interview with Stephen Cornish about their Telco network and its capabilities in Perth. Good eplanation of how there Terregraph (NEXUS) technology will increase their customer base and network reliability. Talk about how their fixed wireless is a lower cost solution that NBN fibre.
18-10-21 Short interview with Stephen Cornish 5GG CEO on the cloud gaming rollout
6-8-21 Good 20 minute overview on TALK YA BOOK of the potential and he talks about how he sees the exclusivity deal with NVIDIA unfolding beyond the 1yr exclusivity agreement.
Fornite is now available on iOS and Android through Geforce NOW. Currently one of the most popular battle royal games, it will be worth watching to see if there is any noticeable uptick in users following this update, and if the launch of mid tier plans follows not far behind. (Previously indicated to be Q4 release)
Thought I would check out what the ques are currently looking like on GeForce Now after updates earlier this year announcing high growth on the platform.
There's definitely some more friction to using the free service now with over 150 people in line and a 20+ minute wait for time on the server. With the free service limited to a 1 hour session, and then having to re-join the line I think this may convert a few more memberships even before the new membership tiers are rolled out.
It will be interesting to see if there has been any growth in the numbers for Q3.
Interesting little company this one, been watching it for a while. Agree with Gourav’s comments here re: the founder - impressive young man with a passion for solving a problem. I also think cloud gaming is going to be really big and these guys could be at the forefront of it in Aus in the future.
https://www.ausbiz.com.au/media/gauravs-small-cap-hit-list-?videoId=19401§ionId=1885